I arrived at a rather unenviable and hopefully “once in a lifetime” position recently—having accurately predicted the pandemic now sweeping the globe.
It’s an inexplicably eerie feeling. A pandemic is not something you ever hope to be “right about.” You hope it never happens. Unfortunately, one of my greatest fears has come true. A fear with its roots firmly planted in my first novel, The Jakarta Pandemic (TJP for short), published ten years ago.
The idea for TJP sprang from an already unhealthy obsession with viral outbreaks. Captain Trips from Stephen King’s epic, The Stand, was burned into my psyche from an early age. I burned through The Andromeda Strain by Michael Crichton in a single sitting. The book Hot Zone by Richard Preston and movie Outbreak was like a one-two punch, released a year apart in 1994-95. The movie 28 Days Later in 2002. Max Brooks brilliant novel, World War Z a few years after that. I couldn’t get enough of these stories. And then the Swine Flu pandemic hit in 2008! Looking back, it should have come as no surprise to anyone, especially me, that my first stab at writing a novel would center around a pandemic.
However, despite my initial enthusiasm—the project barely got off the ground. The usual first time, part time writer challenges applied. Didn’t know what I was doing and wasn’t sure it would be worth the effort. Limited time to write. Busy with two young kids. Everything got in the way, but the biggest delay came from what turned out to be the novel’s greatest strength.
I spent at least six months researching past pandemics, virology, disease epidemiology, U.S. and world pandemic response protocols and detection capabilities, vaccine production, the U.S. healthcare and medical infrastructure, U.S essential services infrastructure, supply chain dynamics.
I consumed every article or paper publicly available that could help me understand the various impacts of a pandemic on society. I had hit what writers call “research paralysis,” where I was obsessed with collecting and digesting more information than I truly needed to write the novel.
When I finally broke through to the other side, I decided to tell the story differently. I steered away from the heroic CDC scientist hopping from one jet to another to reach the next hot zone or the critical response team fighting against all odds to stay one step ahead of the pandemic. Instead, I focused on a single family’s tense and claustrophobic struggle to stay alive during the most lethal pandemic in recorded human history. Of course, I threw way more at them than an unseen virus. Society collapses in my novel (along with nearly all essential services), pitting neighbor against neighbor in a vicious struggle to survive.
What does this have to do with me predicting the COVID19 Pandemic?
Fast forward ten years from the publication of The Jakarta Pandemic to January of this year. Without going into exhaustive detail (I’ve already taken up enough of your time)—YOU DON’T LOCKDOWN AN ENTIRE CITY OF 11 MILLION PEOPLE FOR THE SEASONAL FLU. I had been watching the virus news closely when Wuhan was locked down by Chinese authorities, noting that the first case detected in the U.S. a few days earlier, had recently returned from a trip to Wuhan. That was all I needed to know.
Note: ALL OF THESE POSTS ORIGINATED ON FACEBOOK. I REBROADCASTED MOST OF THEM ON TWITTER AND ON THIS BLOG.
Another note: I posted a few times between the end of January and the start of my regular posting on Feb 27th, but deleted those posts due to harassment via email and PM on Facebook…and directly on the posts. Most of the harassment centered around the theme “liberal hoax hyped by Fake News Media.” THIS IS NOT A PARTISAN OR POLITICAL ISSUE FOR ME. I was critical of the Ebola response in 2014 in two widely circulated posts. POST ONE. POST TWO.
JANUARY 27th
Looking at this representation of the Wuhan Coronavirus brings me back to 2008, when I started to write my first novel, THE JAKARTA PANDEMIC. Publicly available, interactive digital maps like this didn’t exist at that point (outside of a few barely navigable sites), so I created what I would want to see if I were tracking a pandemic virus. Looks like I wasn’t alone. LINK to Wuhan Coronavirus tracking site–> https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/…/opsdashboa…/index.html…
From THE JAKARTA PANDEMIC (2010)
“Next, Alex navigated to the International Scientific Pandemic Awareness Collaborative (ISPAC) site and checked their world activity map. Color-coded symbols littered the world, each representing a reported flu outbreak. Placing the mouse icon over one of the symbols activated a text box, which could be further expanded for more detailed information. Light blue: cases of interest, yellow: initial outbreak, orange: small-scale outbreak, red: medium-sized outbreak, violet: large-scale outbreak.
He moved the map to China and saw that dozens of southern coastal cities were shaded either orange or red; Hong Kong and the surrounding areas were shaded violet. He passed the mouse over one of these areas. “Greater Guangzhou city. Population 12,100,000. Massive outbreak. 8,000+ reported cases. Uncontained. Containment efforts focused on Guangdong Province.”
Alex zoomed out of China and settled on a worldview. Colored dots appeared to sweep outward in a concentric wave from Southeast Asia. A solid perimeter of blue dots extended from Japan, through South Korea and Vladivostok, then reached across northern China and connected with Pakistan and India. India was covered in blue dots and yellow dots; orange icons appeared centered over several major cities within India.”
FEBRUARY 27th
My take on the COVID-19 virus.
BEFORE I GET STARTED—THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO PANIC, but it is definitely time to take a few key steps to avoid panic later.
“AS OF YESTERDAY, I CAN NO LONGER INDIVIDUALLY REPLY TO REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION OR OPINIONS REGARDING THE COVID-19 VIRUS. The number of emails and messages has become overwhelming. That said, I don’t want to leave readers and friends hanging, so I’ve put together the key information, predictions and recommendations that I’ve gathered or formed over the past few weeks.
Disclaimer: I’m not a scientific expert in pandemic epidemiology…or anything for that matter! However, I did exhaustively researched pandemics and complex healthcare plans to address pandemics for my first novel, THE JAKARTA PANDEMIC (TJP), which was published in 2010. TJP was one of the first modern novels to address the average citizen’s experience during a lethal pandemic, from the arrival of the virus to a sensationalized breakdown of society. The virus I “brought to life” was far worse than anything we’ve seen in recorded history. That’s how you sell fiction. I don’t think we’ll ever see anything even remotely as deadly and destructive as the virus I created for that novel. Why tell you this? Because we’re not dealing with this kind of scenario with COVID-19—BUT WE’RE STILL FACING A UNIQUELY LETHAL CRISIS. Let me explain.
WHAT ARE WE ACTUALLY DEALING WITH?
CONTAGIOUSNESS:
COVID-19 is very likely twice as contagious as the seasonal flu, spread by DROPLET CONTACT (cough, sneeze or nose/mouth wipe that ends up on a surface and is then transmitted when someone else touches the surface…or if someone sneezes/coughs right into your face) and quite possibly some AIRBORNE CONTACT (aerosolized droplets from coughs and sneezes float around for a while and land in your mouth, eyes or other mucus membranes). Airborne contact has not been scientifically demonstrated, but the fact that it spreads faster than seasonal flu has experts suspected an airborne component.
MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY:
Chinese epidemiological reports based on current infection data puts the case fatality rate (CFR) at around 2%. This may change, but experts think it will hover right around that number. Seasonal flu has a CFR around .1%…so COVID-19 is 10-20X more lethal if contracted. On top of that, 20% of those infected require critical care (ICU level) to survive. This is important to remember.
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND CASE FATALITY BREAKDOWN:
Noted Harvard epidemiologist and many other experts expect 40-70% of world population to be exposed to COVID-19 within a year. This sounds high to me, and only time and more data will tell.
Case Fatality Rate data: The older and more immunocompromised you are, the worse it gets.
Under 50 Years old—.2 to .4 CFR (2-4X greater than seasonal flu. This is still BAD) 50-59 — 1.3% (10X) 60-69 — 3.6% (You do the math) 70-79 — 8% 80 and above — 15% Cardiovascular disease, diabetes, pulmonary disease? 6-10%
PREDICTIONS:
This is rough guess stuff based on data presented above and expert opinion (not mine).
—THIS WILL NOT BE AN APOCALYPTIC SCENARIO LIKE MY BOOKS. We’re looking at a slower burn scenario with limited, but ultimately significant impacts on society and daily life. COVID-19 —The food supply/power grid/water supply systems are unlikely to fail. I just don’t see that happening. What I do see happening is a brief, intense run on the stores (a few weeks), which will empty the shelves temporarily. Food will return, but daily essentials like toilet paper (think of what you resupply every few weeks), OTC medicines, prescription medicines will constantly be in demand. Picture a grocery store and how much shelf space is dedicated to different classes of items. —You will need to prepare for a 1-2 month period of general, but not complete societal “shut down.” Businesses closed. Restaurants shut. Day care and schools closed. Work places closed? THIS WILL BE THE MOST FRIGHTENING TIME—FOR GOOD REASON. You will want to avoid or severely limit public exposure. YOU NEED TO PREPARE FOR THIS! Can you remain mostly at home for a month or two, without resupplying? If you have to go out, can you keep yourself safe from infection and panic induced crime? —The closure of schools, daycares and workplaces WILL SERIOUSLY STRAIN financially insecure families, if not ruin them financially. YOU MUST PLAN FOR THIS. Talk with employers ahead of time. Whatever it takes. This won’t last forever, but too many people can’t afford to take a single unpaid day off from work TODAY! I can’t understate the importance of this aspect. —Don’t count on the healthcare system to help you. The U.S. has 1 million hospital beds…only a fraction of those are capable of ICU level care. If 20% of half of our population requires critical care—that’s around 30 MILLION very sick people without a bed when the pandemic music stops!
WHAT CAN YOU DO TODAY?
—Do whatever is within your means to prepare for a 1-2 month period of minimal public contact. Food. Medicine. Home essentials. FOCUS ON STUFF YOU CAN YOU USE EVEN IF COVID-19 DOESN’T MATERIALIZE. This is the key to readiness. Everything I buy will be used within a matter of a few years. —Prepare for your kids to be home. Even if the schools don’t close, do you really want them at school? The reported fatality rate is VERY LOW for kids, but they can still bring the virus home to YOU! —Start talking to your employer today about COVID-19 plans. Better to get the conversation rolling now, then to pull an absence that cost you your job or a few weeks of pay. —Stockpile FLU mitigating medications. CLICK LINK TO SEE LIST. Most of us will come down with nasty flu symptoms that are not life threatening, but can be very uncomfortable…and possibly get worse if left untreated. —Stockpile disinfectant supplies like bleach based sprays/solutions, disinfectant wipes for door handles/cars/shopping carts, hand sanitizer, and masks (any kind…but preferably N95 level protection). —Stockpile IMMUNE SYSTEM boosting supplies like Multivitamins, extra Vitamin C, Elderberry in any form, Oregano Oil…lots of stuff out there that can help with this. Stay rested. Eat Healthy.
SUMMARY:
Let’s hope this doesn’t get nearly as bad as the experts indicate—BUT LET’S TAKE SOME STEPS NOW TO PREVENT A DISASTER IF COVID-19 CONTINUES TO SPREAD AS PREDICTED.”
FEBRUARY 28th
A well balanced and thoughtful article on COVID-19 by Randy Powers. Worth a read. No panic. Just sound, practical advice.
As you can imagine, I’ve digested hundreds of articles over the past few weeks related to the coronavirus threat. Several have stood out as well-balanced and informative. Giving these articles a few minutes of your time will put you on the right track to “Prepare without fear. Prepare with intelligence. Prepare with benevolence.” — Dr. Hal Cohen.
WHY YOU SHOULD STOCK UP ON TOILET PAPER (and everything else you need to keep your household running for 2-4 weeks of complete or partial isolation) RIGHT NOW.
THE SIMPLE ANSWER IN TWO PARTS:
1.) You and your loved ones will have a far better chance of remaining safe from COVID19.
2.) As it starts to become even more obvious that COVID19 is here to stay for a while, this may be your last chance to acquire these supplies for a long time (I don’t have data to support this one, but just take a look at the news).
Is this panic or fear based? No. It’s data based.
The first thing we need to do is DROP the mantra “BUT THIS ISN’T AS BAD AS THE SEASONAL FLU!”
It isn’t, YET…but scientific data and disease epidemiologists says it WILL BE…or at the very least IT SHOULD BE. Let’s hope math and the experts are wrong. Or as a good Marine buddy of mine once said, “you can wish in one hand and shit in the other…and see which one fills up first.” You get the not so pretty picture.
THE SLIGHTLY MORE COMPLICATED ANSWER IN MANY PARTS:
1.) COVID19 IS NOT GOING AWAY ANY TIME SOON. It’s Reproductive Number (R0 or “R-naught”) is somewhere between 1.4 and 4, which is consistent with historical coronaviruses. R0 is the number of patients each patient infects on their own. An R0 BELOW 1 means the disease dies out. An R0 AT 1 means it infects one person and the disease grows at a steady rate. An R0 OVER 1 means the disease spreads exponentially. Season flu has an R0 of 1.2…WITH A VACCINE ADMINISTERED AHEAD OF TIME AND DURING THE FLU SEASON! COVID19’s R0 is most likely double or triple the seasonal flu, and there is NO VACCINE.
1A.) BONUS! Infected people typically shed the virus (directly give it to you or give it to a door handle that gives it to you) for 7 DAYS before showing symptoms. Some can remain asymptomatic for 14 days…higher time periods are suspected. ALSO, a study released today in the LANCET indicated that the mean number of days a patient remains contagious in ICU is 20 days in survivors. 37 days was the longest observed. This is not like your typical cold or sinus thing, where we all think “once I’m showing symptoms, I’m not contagious.”
2.) COVID19 IS MORE LETHAL THAN THE SEASONAL FLU. The latest data points coming out of China (44K patient analysis) and Italy did not dampen the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) as many had hoped. Data confirmed a fairly steady 2.3% overall CFR. That’s 23X higher than seasonal flu at .1%. The older you are, or sicker you are, the worse the scenario. If you’re older than 60, or have comorbid diseases (heart disease, diabetes, etc), you are anywhere from 36-148X more likely to die from COVID19 than the seasonal flu. SEE THE DATA BELOW.
2A.) BONUS! 37,000 Americans died last year from the flu…and WE HAD A FLU VACCINE (admittedly the vaccine is not perfect). We will not have a vaccine for COVID19 for at least a year, maybe longer.
2B.) CYNICAL TAKE: Hey…maybe only the same number of Americans will die from COVID19 as the flu. WHAT A MORBID THOUGHT…one I see repeated day in and day out. One I’ve now seen both the leader of the US and UK state publicly. SEE the part where I say BUY TOILET PAPER and other stuff NOW, because with our leaders spouting this attitude, I can assure you they do not have your best interest at heart. Listen to the experts please.
3.) COVID19 IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NUMBERS SUGGEST. This is a math based theory.I’m not going to get into the math, but the bottom line is that we haven’t been testing for COVID19 in any wide scale manner. As testing picks up, we’ll start to see a glimpse of the real numbers. WE HAVE TO FACE IT. COVID19 has been here since the first infected travelers got off the plane from Asia. We don’t know when that happened, but since China has been fighting the outbreak since December, it’s fair to say that the first infected passengers arrived in January. TWO MONTHS AGO. If you understand exponential growth, you’ll quickly understand why the currently reported numbers are likely off by a magnitude of ten or more.
SO…what was I saying earlier? Oh yeah. It might be prudent to prepare for a short (2-4 week) period of time when you can stay away from the general public…or anyone outside of your circle of sanitized trust. Make sure the vulnerable in your family or in your neighborhood are similarly situated. Significant social distancing by the population (to include self-quarantine/isolation) will be the only way to drop that R0 below or close enough to 1 to slow this thing down to a manageable level. Please plan accordingly, in a non-panicked manner…before it is too late.
For those of you that made it this far…YES, I should be writing a book right now, but I’m trying to keep you and your peeps alive and well. And I’m happy to do it.
MARCH 11
PLEASE READ THE ACCOUNT BELOW FROM A DOCTOR ON THE FRONT LINES IN ITALY. I’ve heard similar reports from other doctors interviewed on NPR or other news agencies.
***IF THIS POST IS TOO LONG FOR YOU, CLICK THE ARTICLE FOR THE HIGHLIGHTS.
1.) What’s happening in Italy is unlike anything these doctors have ever seen. THIS IS NOT JUST THE FLU. The flu doesn’t crush healthcare systems in a few weeks. The Lombardy region is industrialized and the system is decent by all standards. Not perfect, but let’s face it…neither is ours.
2.) The elderly (70 and above) are AT MUCH HIGHER RISK of permanent organ damage or death from COVID19 than the seasonal flu. Preparing now for the scenario described below will save thousands of their lives.
3.) Young people have been hospitalized and put in the ICU, in much lower numbers, but on to #3.
4.) ICU beds and critical care equipment (ventilators) in Italy are at capacity. Your 8 year old who develops symptoms will not get a bed here once they are filled by the older people who will present severe symptoms far sooner. TRIAGE will go into effect. Your child is very, very likely to survive by being sent home with care instructions…the old person isn’t. Same for you if you’re under 60. Hospitals will prioritize those most at risk. That’s TRIAGE. One of the Italian doctors interviewed stated that only under the most unusual circumstances will SOMEONE UNDER 65-without complications-BE ADMITTED TO THE HOSPITAL.
5.) The US has one of the unhealthiest populations in the world. Italians have an average life expectancy FIVE years longer than Americans. That’s significant. Tons of reasons why, but there’s no point in getting into that. It’s fair to say that your average Italian boomer is healthier than a U.S. boomer. COVID19 will hit our older population just as hard or harder—IF WE ALL DON’T ACT RESPONSIBLY.
DON’T PANIC. JUST TAKE SOME BASIC PRECAUTIONS. THE MOST IMPORTANT BEING——SOCIAL DISTANCING IN ITS MANY FORMS.
MARCH 12
I WILL BE SHARING MORE POSTS LIKE THIS. The danger is real, but there’s a right way to approach it and manage it. My guess is that Dr. Hal Cohen‘s approach will become, or already is, the norm. A robust testing capacity is at the heart of a sound and effective strategy. S. Korea has already turned the tide. Let’s hope it’s not too late here. And let’s keep the safety of our front line of defense in mind. The more we understand how the front line is fighting this, the better we can manage our own expectations if we suspect we’ve been infected.
From Dr. Cohen:
Now that SARS-CoV2 is confirmed to be in Maine, I was asked about the testing protocol.
Here is my reply:
What we are being told makes little sense to me
I am pissed
We need to be testing like south Korea did
Right now they are telling us for people who have fever and a cough but who otherwise do not feel all that sick to stay home and go out and about once they feel better
Makes no sense
We should be testing them
The virus sheds for 7 to 12 days. So if these people with mild disease feel better in three days and return to work ( though they are less contagious than at the outset ) they are still contagious
We need MORE testing, not less
The problem is if we test everyone we would overwhelm our ERs. They would be tied up or if we brought everyone into the office we’d be excessively exposing people to the virus in our waiting rooms even though we are slapping a mask on them ASAP and getting them into a room ASAP
We need to set up a system whereby we are testing people in their home or like they did in South Korea, at designated stations which limited contact brilliantly
This needs to be initiated by public health and local government, however, because it needs funding in order for us to test maximally
The bottom line is we are doing this not for the otherwise healthy young person or middle aged person, but to protect the elderly and the frail who are at risk for hospitalization or death. I love that Tom hanks and Rita Wilson have the virus. They are mildly ill. THAT IS THE NORM!!!! So truly stop panicking!!!!!!! We need to act appropriately to protect those who are at high risk!
If people call us, this office, with a fever and cough or shortness of breath I’m bringing them in right now. I will assess them to see if they have the flu or strep throat or a sinus infection ( if yes, no further work up is needed ) . But if I can’t fine another cause, then I need to call the hospital’s infectious disease department to ask if this is an appropriate case for testing. And then, as of March 12, I call the ER where they bring the patient into a proper isolation room dedicated for safe evaluation and testing. MOST of these people will test NEGATIVE
So that’s I am doing, that’s what we are being told to do, and that’s what we should be doing.
Christopher Kessler, should the public contact their representatives? How do we proceed politically to get this done correctly?
Bottom line – do not go to the ER unless you have significant shortness of breath and call ahead! Do not go to a walk in clinic without calling ahead! Do now show up at your primary care docs office unless you call ahead. You only need to be tested if you have FEVER and a COUGH or SHORTNESS of BREATH or a SORE THROAT (in some cases). You need to tell us in advance so we can put a mask on you ASAP. Thanks.
If you have the sniffles, congestion, a cough, sinus ache, but no fever, do not call us. We’re going to be sort of busy I love you all
Now what did I say?
Act appropriately.
And do not panic.
I’m not. And I’m right in the middle of the sh*t : )
Have a nice day
MARCH 15
PLEASE KEEP THIS IN MIND WHILE PREPARING YOUR HOUSEHOLD.
Top U.S. health officials say the coronavirus crisis and disruptions could last up to 8 weeks. Based on what we’re seeing in Italy, along with the rest of continental Europe—AND the fact that even the extremely limited data compiled in the U.S. strongly suggests we are on the same “crash course” or very likely worse—I THINK THIS IS A FAIR ASSESSMENT BY OUR TOP PANDEMIC EXPERTS.
Does that mean you need 8 weeks of food now, instead of the suggested 2 weeks? THE ANSWER IS IRRELEVANT AT THIS POINT. The stores are picked clean.
WHAT YOU CAN DO IS PLAN AHEAD—BY ORDERING STAPLES ONLINE TODAY. The supply chain is strained right now by the high demand, but it will trickle staples back into the system. ORDERING TODAY, even if the projected “in stock” date is two to four weeks out (which I’ve seen all over the internet), does two things.
1.) It gives you the ability to weather an extended crisis without having to stand in line for 8 hours to get a rationed amount of supplies (THAT’S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW IN EUROPE).
2.) It gives the supply chain the ability better manage their distribution. This is what they do best. It’s also why the stores are empty right now (On Demand Supply Chain) with nothing in back to restock them, but that’s a different story for a different time.
For those that read this far, Amazon still has some dry food availability. Can’t be picky at this point. Staples.
COVID19 can infect all age groups. Take a look at this graph. In South Korea (ROK), where they tested all ages and tested extensively, they found it MORE IN YOUNG ADULTS. In Italy, they focused testing on the more vulnerable, like we are here (the few tests we’ve done).
Young people are being admitted to ICU’s throughout Spain and France in larger numbers than expected. Their prognosis for survival is good to great, but a severe lung infection requiring ventilation can permanently damage your lungs.
It’s a lifelong payment plan…that gets worse with age. We all lose lung function as we get older. I think the estimate is one liter of lung capacity lost by age 65 in a healthy person. You start out with 6 as an adult. SO…6-2 is 4, minus another liter naturally (assuming you don’t lose capacity faster because of the damage)…Leaves you with half of your current lung capacity AT 65. That’s an FEV1 of 50 percent, or Stage III COPD. Not too far away from what they call END STAGE COPD.
End stage COPD=NO QUALITY OF LIFE.
March 16
How seriously is your state taking the COVID19 pandemic? Disclaimer: Many counties and local municipalities have taken many of these measures on their own, despite state inaction.
MARCH 18
Murray Hamilton, Roy Scheider and Richard Dreyfuss.
THIS IS HOW I’VE FELT FOR TWO MONTHS. For the record, I’m Hooper.
MARCH 19
A MUST READ:
If the CDC hasn’t already come to an arrangement with Kinsa health to utilize this tool, then there is something entirely wrong with the CDC….and when this is over, every leader in the CDC should be fired…if not criminally prosecuted…assuming that doesn’t happen regardless.
We have the technologies. They’re either already in use or they’ve been offered to us (WHO testing kits). Only ONE THING has stood in the way of managing this properly. Our GOVERNMENT.
MARCH 20
We’re just deploying the Strategic National Stockpile now? Interesting that this was NEVER mentioned in a press briefing (that I recall).
I wrote about these in 2010 in The Jakarta Pandemic:
“Hospitals and medical facilities in the heaviest hit metro areas are operating at near full capacity. HHS officials estimate that the nation’s hospitals will likely reach or exceed surge capacity by the middle of the week and have taken steps to deploy all remaining Federal Medical Stations to the hardest hit areas.
“Three of these stations have already been established in New York City, and one is operational in Los Angeles. Furthermore, HHS officials have assured state governments that all remaining Strategic National Stockpile assets have been slated for the soonest possible delivery to individual states.”
Federal Medical Stations can be deployed to hotspots. Have those been deployed to handle overload…or maybe to handle non-COVID19 patients? IS ANYONE COMPETENT MAKING DECISIONS? This stuff should have been deployed WEEKS AGO.
Of course the intelligence community did! Nobody could possibly believe that a handful of authors (nod to Russell Blake), who wrote pandemic books, and the general readiness (prepper) community (nod to Randy Powers) were the only ones that saw this coming more than two months ago.
Contrary to the WH narrative ***”Nobody saw this coming”*** EVERYBODY WITH ANY EXPERTISE OR KNOWLEDGE OF THE SUBJECT SAW IT COMING!
***INCLUDING the army of scientific and medical experts who have been warning the WH for months***
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU DISMISS EXPERTS and GO WITH YOUR GUT ON A TOPIC YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT.
IT’S CALLED GAMBLING. And the White House bet it all on RED (purposeful use of the word RED) based on a HUNCH. And the roulette ball stopped on BLACK.
EVEN WORSE, THEY PLACED THAT BET FOR ALL OF US!
P.S. The WH didn’t just gamble…it goes deeper than that. They purposefully delayed taking action—thinking they could save the Titanic and their own political and economic keisters.
ONE OF MY FINAL PSA’S REGARDING COVID19 (unless something game changing arises):
STAY HOME, unless you are running essential household missions (food, pharmacy, critical repairs, etc) OR you are working in an environment that doesn’t put you at risk of infection (you decide).
IF YOU GET INFECTED TODAY, and you get critically or severely sick (estimated 20%)—YOU MOST LIKELY WILL NOT GET THE CARE YOU NEED TO RECOVER. The last golden ticket for a ventilator was handed out some time a week or more ago. The virus has been spreading quietly for weeks at this point. DON’T RISK IT.
THERE’S NO DOWNSIDE TO PLAYING IT SAFE. IF I’M WRONG—ALONG WITH EVERY OTHER CREDIBLE VIROLOGY EXPERT, DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGIST AND PUBLIC HEALTHCARE EXPERT—I’ll gladly eat crow so to speak. I’ll be relieved, frankly. Like Dr. Fauci said…THIS IS THE TIME TO OVERREACT.
DON’T COUNT ON A BREAKTHROUGH. The medicines they are experimenting with may help…LATER. They won’t be available in the quantities needed soon. JUST ASSUME THAT.
The HAMMER is our only choice at this point…so the DANCE is a slow waltz…not a breakdance or mosh pit scene.
SUMMARY OF THE ARTICLE: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, TENS OF MILLIONS will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the HEALTHCARE SYSTEM WILL HAVE COLLAPSED.
MARCH 23
Because all of you want to track COVID19 just as closely as I do.
This is the first time I’ve breathed a little easier in about a month. Indiana’s governor has issued a “stay at home” order, to be enforced by the State Police working with local authorities. SHELTER IN PLACE.
CHECK OUT THE PUBLIC RESOURCE BELOW (shows outcomes of various responses…from none to Wuhan level lockdown) AND CONTACT YOUR STATE GOVERNOR’S OFFICE!
Even Boris Johnson gets it. I hope this is contagious.
MARCH 24
Over half of the U.S. population ordered by their states to SHELTER IN PLACE. Notice any trends?
MARCH 26
Or maybe a virus that is still several weeks away from peaking, and will almost certainly overwhelm medicals systems in every state—IS THE DOMINANT FORCE?
Or an administration that either purposefully or obtusely delayed taking the necessary actions to mitigate the impact of the virus—IS THE DOMINANT FORCE?
I’m limiting myself to one serious post per day about the pandemic. I think this one is critically important for those on the fence about “the numbers.”
1. Pay close attention to what Dr. Fauci says—WHEN HE’S OUTSIDE of the daily White House press conference. He’s frequently appearing on different media outlets. The difference is night and day from my perspective. He’s obviously constrained during the White House pressers…not so much on the outside.
2. Pay LITTLE TO NO ATTENTION to Dr. Birx right now. Check the first comments on this post for an explanation. She’s in a far tougher spot than Dr. Fauci.
WHY DO I SAY THIS? The UK data modeling hubbub is not a hubbub at all. It’s being opportunistically mischaracterized by the WH to downplay the impact of the pandemic on the U.S. It’s being used to reject Governor Cuomo’s request for ventilators…it’s being used to justify the WH’s “reopen the nation by Easter or soon thereafter” narrative.
Here’s what the Director of J-IDEA and the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, the modeler who presented the data to the UK parliament had to say about recent interpretations of their revised data. SEE BELOW.
The key? The revised data presented “to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.”
In other words, he’s saying…NOW THAT WE’VE IMPLEMENTED INTENSE SOCIAL DISTANCING AND OTHER PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTIONS…the outlook is significantly better.
THE UK IS IN A FULL NATIONAL LOCKDOWN. THE US IS NOT. HIS REVISED DATA DOES NOT APPLY HERE, OUTSIDE OF THE IMPACT THAT WILL BE MADE BY A NOT INSIGNIFICANT PATCHWORK OF LOCAL AND STATE EFFORTS.
MARCH 27
Dug through my bookmarks to find this one. Jan 30th.
This is…NOT…encouraging. Cell phone tracking used to access impact of pandemic lockdown efforts show a stark difference between Rome (with a fairly complete lockdown) and Seattle. Also shows that U.S. spring breakers dispersed throughout the U.S. east coast and midwest during what can only be assumed to be the middle of the peak infection time.
CLICK HERE to see comparison between three cities. Shanghai, Rome and Seattle —>
I wish our government had some kind of Pandemic Response playbook that streamlined and simplified the federal response from the initial detection of a PPP (pathogen of pandemic potential) anywhere in the world to its arrival and spread in the United States. Something leadership could pick up, thumb through…and within minutes determine what needs to happen to effectively combat a pandemic.
What? It already exists? It was created by the outgoing administration’s fully staffed NSC global health security team and handed to the current administration’s team and then briefed to the White House…which shortly thereafter diluted the team in a cost-saving effort?
If you have any doubt that the White House bungled the pandemic response, YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF TO READ THIS 69 PAGE DOCUMENT. IT’S EMBEDDED IN THE ARTICLE DIRECTLY BELOW…you can also download it from the article.
I’ll summarize it if you don’t want to dig into the matrixes provided.
IT’S NOW THE END OF MARCH AND THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS BARELY SCRATCHED THE SURFACE OF WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN EXECUTED TWO MONTHS AGO. A PANDEMIC IS A NATIONAL LEVEL EVENT—THE PREPARATION AND COORDINATION OF THE RESPONSE IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSIBILITY.
Pay close attention to the DOMESTIC PLAYBOOK Section. Page 31.
2a. Everything in this section should have been triggered in mid to late January, when China locked down several cities. That’s publicly available information. Imagine when and what the intel community was telling the administration. My guess is a lot more…a lot earlier. NATIONWIDE PPE DISTRIBUTION PLANS FALL UNDER THIS SECTION.
2b. The first case was identified in the U.S. on January 21st. Every disease epidemiologist and expert quickly warned, in rapid succession, that the virus was here and was spreading. EVEN I ASSUMED THIS TO BE THE CASE. At a minimum, everything in this section should have been initiated by the end of January. STRATEGIC STOCKPILE AND DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT CONSIDERATIONS FALL UNDER THIS SECTION…among other things.
MARCH 28
I wrote similar articles in 2014 regarding Ebola (one during and one when it died down).
I was not happy with the government’s response. I was very clear about that. THIS IS NOT A PARTISAN ISSUE FOR ME. I think we dodged a bullet in 2014, because Ebola is ILL SUITED FOR EPIDEMIC LEVEL SPREAD IN A FIRST WORLD NATION.
The ebola crisis demonstrated that the federal government really didn’t have its act together to effectively handle a PANDEMIC. Neither did the administration before that.
THAT’S WHY THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION CREATED THE PANDEMIC PLAYBOOK (INCORPORATING LESSONS LEARNED) FOR FUTURE USE.
Because it was never a matter of IF a lethal pandemic would sweep the globe, it was a matter of WHEN.
THE CAPTAIN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHIP. PERIOD.
And we have CAPTAIN QUEEG still counting strawberries. Some of you will get that one.
March 30
IN ONE MONTH WE WENT FROM
The President saying. “[W]hen you have 15 people (cases), and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” Feb 26th
TO
Dr. Birx saying. “…the worst case scenario is 1.6 million to 2.2 million. That’s a prediction if we do nothing. If we do things together, well, almost perfectly, we can get in the range of 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities.” Mar 29th
Perfectly from this moment forward? Who’s the “WE” she’s referring to? The government? The people? Both? She followed up with examples of how the population is no where close to handling this perfectly and that some states haven’t implemented strict stay at home orders, so I’m guessing she means the population. I sense a shift of blame here, but that may be my conspiracy thriller mind at work.
EITHER WAY. 100-200K fatalities if we do things perfectly. 1.6 to 2.2 million if we don’t. I’m not even going to hazard a public guess at the number. What’s the point? We all know it’s going to be somewhere between perfect and do nothing.
STAY HOME. FOR YOUR OWN SAKE AND THE SAKE OF OTHERS.
THE POWER TO PUSH THE NUMBER IN EITHER DIRECTION IS IN YOUR HANDS.
MARCH 31
1.) I always assumed the pandemic numbers released by China were deeply flawed. They publicly denied human to human transmission until at least Jan 15th, when anyone with a working brain could tell that was nonsense.
2.) Once the numbers started building in S. Korea during mid February and built up steam by the end of the month, it was obvious by the exponential growth that China’s numbers were pure fiction. Drastically underreported. I was still able to use those rosy numbers to warn friends, readers and family here. Even the fake numbers spelled catastrophe in the U.S.
3.) When Italy and other far more modernized healthcare systems started reporting unchecked exponential growth,(China’s healthcare system looks sleek…and they built a few hospitals in record time, but for the squalid poor masses-vast majority of the nation-the system is anything but modern)—I significantly increased the tone of my warnings.
4.) I tossed China’s data out the window about three weeks ago. Any predictive model based on that data is flawed…in that it paints a far too kind picture of the pandemic’s impact.
I’ve followed Dr. Feigl-Ding for a while…he and several other disease epidemiologists have informed my opinion on the matter from the beginning. He has yet to be wrong about this pandemic.
Over and over again, I’m hearing a new narrative designed to entirely shift the responsibility AND BLAME for the White House’s feeble pandemic response—onto the individual states and the population. Not so fast.
FIRST…coordinating an effective response to a pandemic is entirely the responsibility of the federal government. That’s right out of the Pandemic Playbook still collecting dust somewhere in the White House. This is a national emergency. If a hostile country landed a battalion of their marines on a Florida beach, the federal government wouldn’t defer to the state of Florida to handle the crisis…only stepping in when the states asked for help. This pandemic has ALWAYS BEEN KNOWN BY EXPERTS to pose the same level of national threat to our population, economy and security as a major war. The biggest threat since World War II…are the words being used by economists, the UN and every credible predictive modeler in the world. A lethal, efficient pandemic virus demands a coordinated federal response. The administration botched the initial and ongoing response BADLY. There is no other way to interpret it. Trump said over and over again it was a hoax. So did GOP lawmakers.
I could cite hundreds of examples of how they downplayed it because they didn’t take it seriously or purposefully denied it was happening…for whatever reason. Reelection worries. Democratic hoax. On and on. It’s all recorded and very clear. Trump still denies saying stuff today that he said yesterday. He’s a disaster and his public response has been entirely predictable. What has happened up until now and will happen in the next few months was entirely predictable. I expected nothing else, which is why I started sounding the warning back in February.
He botched whatever could be controlled in a situation like this as badly as he could, and a solid portion of the nation still doesn’t think this is a big deal because of what he’s consistently been saying up until a few days ago. His administration scores a zero for handling what could have been handled under this complex scenario. Fauci and Birx have only recently gotten through to him. That much is painfully clear.
All of that said—In the absence of any coherent or consistent federal guidance/declarations (the case so far), the STATES do have the responsibility to enact and enforce strict measures to mitigate the impact of the pandemic (shelter in place orders) and the POPULATION does has the responsibility to abide by these orders. Several states still haven’t taken effective action. Some have taken none. And too many people don’t seem to understand the gravity of the situation. My guess is that they’re looking for some strong guidance and leadership from the White House—which has been entirely lacking from the start.
History will look back at the Trump administration as EXACTLY what not to do in the face of a pandemic that you could see coming for months.
APRIL 1
WHAT?! Who could have seen this one coming? Other than anyone with a calculator, and the most basic knowledge of disease transmission, who over the past two months has looked back at China’s public claim on January 14 that they found no evidence of human to human transmission and found that a LITTLE HARD TO BELIEVE.
And in about three weeks, when one of our forward deployed aircraft carriers is unable to execute its mission, because even our “top brass” doesn’t seem to understand how the virus works…they’ll relieve everyone else in the chain of command.
I understand that the Theodore Roosevelt is a vital national security asset and taking it out of commission for 3 weeks by evacuating the crew from a packed Petri dish seems drastic, but the same strategies to flatten the curve in a country, state, county, city, household…apply to a 4,000 sailor carrier. At least this commanding officer can go to sleep at night knowing he did everything possible to save the lives of the sailors serving under him.
I’m not sure how anyone in Trump’s administration could catch as much as a cat’s nap these days.
APRIL 3
Unless the definition of the Strategic National Stockpile has changed significantly since I researched it over a decade ago…Nope…the U.S. Public Health Emergency site governing the SNS still states:
“When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance to support their response efforts, the stockpile ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most during an emergency. Organized for scalable response to a variety of public health threats, this repository contains enough supplies to respond to multiple large-scale emergencies simultaneously.”
This is why you don’t put a trust fund baby, faux-failed business person (whose parents’ bribed an elite university to get their middle to low average kid in) and public grifter in charge of a pandemic response. Or anything beyond picking out their shoes for the day. I’m talking about Jared Kushner, though the description also applies to his father-in-law.
Sadly, I think the 240K high end fatality estimate is generous given what I heard yesterday.
The Ministry of Truth speaks. The government just modified the wording on Public Health Emergency page that describes the purpose of OUR National Strategic Stockpile. This is what it stated around 7AM. I copied at pasted this directly from the website.
“When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance to support their response efforts, the stockpile ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most during an emergency. Organized for scalable response to a variety of public health threats, this repository contains enough supplies to respond to multiple large-scale emergencies simultaneously.”
Check out the very convenient difference.
We’ve now reached the point where the White House thinks they can just change reality to fit whatever nonsense they’ve been peddling.
Every word of former Republican strategist Rick Wilson’s article. And he does have a way with words.
“When tested by the fire of crisis, Trump showed us what he’s always been: a weak, spoiled, intellectually vacant conman who has stumbled through a life of betrayal and failure papered over by bullshit and public relations.”
“Trump must face blame for the viral Chernobyl that is rolling over our population now; the one thing you never get back when fighting an epidemic is time. He spent weeks spinning that Coronavirus/COVID-10 was no big deal, and that there was no crisis about to scythe through our nation.”
IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER WHEN DETERMINING QUARANTINE FOR SUSPECTED OR CONFIRMED COVID19 PATIENTS.
As a writer with what might previously (not now) have been considered an unhealthy interest in disease epidemiology, I’ve been following a number of disease epidemiologists on Twitter for quite a while. Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding called this pandemic back long before most of his colleagues. His latest thread suggests a longer quarantine period than 14 days for anyone potentially exposed to COVID19.
He also points out what we’ve known since the end of February. Infected patients can shed virus for several days or even a few weeks after recovering.
“Recent studies from China & Europe showed that people can shed #COVID19 virus well after recovery. One study- researchers found cases shedding the virus for a median of 20 days after they got sick, half of them were shedding for even longer periods – the longest was 37 days.”
This report underscores how little we know about this novel coronavirus, and the critical importance of giving science, the medical field and disease epidemiologists the proper interval of time to study the virus and adequately inform/advise publicly elected officials about a responsible course of action moving forward.
If you’re looking for something to read today, may I suggest 80 pages of an email chain started by the chief medical officer at the Department of Homeland Security, Dr. Duane C. Caneva— “to provide thoughts, concerns, raise issues, share information across various colleagues responding to Covid-19,” including medical experts and doctors from the Health and Human Services Department, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Homeland Security Department, the Veterans Affairs Department, the Pentagon and other federal agencies tracking the historic health emergency.
The emails look very similar to many of the discussions I had with a core group of friends who tracked the pandemic since January.
The inescapable conclusion from these emails?
ALL THE WAY BACK TO JANUARY—EVERYONE AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF OUR PUBLIC HEALTHCARE AND DISEASE RESPONSE SYSTEM KNEW THAT THE PANDEMIC WAS GOING TO HIT THE U.S. VERY HARD.
AND THEY REPEATEDLY WARNED THE WHITE HOUSE AND CDC THAT NOT NEARLY ENOUGH WAS BEING DONE.
AND ALMOST NOTHING WAS DONE UNTIL IT WAS FAR TOO LATE.
APRIL 13
I GUARANTEE THIS WILL BE THE FUNNIEST (in a grim way) THING YOU WATCH ALL MONTH. Peter Navarro, White House economic advisor, challenges 60 Minutes on their pandemic history. This guy is actually in charge of shit!
What’s even funnier, is that Navarro actually sent the WH at least one memo in January essentially warning that the coronavirus would kill millions and cost the economy trillions if we didn’t take it seriously.
You can’t make this stuff up! As a fiction writer, I’m upstaged daily.
APRIL 14
I am continually asked in public and in private…why don’t I move on? Why keep pointing the finger at the White House? I’m told…this is so unproductive…we need to move on.
The RED DAWN EMAILS superimposed over the entirely incompetent, and quite frankly criminally negligent, response by the White House embody my answer.
When I wrote a frighteningly similar scenario in my first novel…back in 2008-2010, I scoured every document produced on how our government would respond to a pandemic. Most of them were written by the same government that intended to implement them…with input from hundreds of experts. Many of them very familiar names. Fauci. Lawler. The list goes on. These dedicated experts have been doing this for decades.
The conclusion I drew was that we had a solid plan…so I wrote that into my novel. Why would I expect anything different? You open the documents early and start the process. The plan was designed that way for a reason. Time is of the essence in a pandemic.
In my novel, the U.S. government did the best it could with the properly vetted plan that actually existed and still exists today, but because I didn’t want a boring novel where everything worked out just fine, I let the virus run amok.
The difference between my novel and todays reality…is that the White House ignored the pandemic playbooks and the experts…and THEY LET THE VIRUS RUN AMOK.
APRIL 14
I’ve received some good questions and healthy criticism regarding the RED DAWN email participants frustration with the European travel ban announced on March 11. You can see a condensed version of their exchange below. Dr. Lawler is particularly outspoken.
To understand their frustration, you have to pour through their emails to see what they were actively recommending for more than 30 days prior to the travel ban AND you also have to understand the early phases of an effective pandemic response. CONTAINMENT and MITIGATION.
CONTAINMENT is one of the earliest phases, and all actions during that phase are designed to prevent or minimize the intrusion of the virus into a population. When CONTAINMENT fails, you switch into MITIGATION. For a good look at MITIGATION, check out California and Washington State. By all measures, they should have a catastrophe on their hands, but they don’t. They made the shift in key locations at the right time. On to the rest of the story.
The White House’s travel ban aimed at China could be classified as a good attempt at CONTAINMENT, if more than 40,000 travelers hadn’t been allowed to travel from China to the U.S. after it was enacted. The virus was undoubtedly already here before the ban, particularly up and down the West Coast, but likely not in the wild numbers we ended up seeing on the East Coast.
Fast forward almost forty days to the European travel ban. By this point, experts had been flailing their hands and arms trying to get the White House to shift from CONTAINMENT TO MITIGATION. Based on those forty days of data (plus data from China) and all of their expertise, they correctly estimated that the virus was already widespread throughout the United States. To them, containment efforts like international travel bans were pointless, unless the same bans were enacted on state levels.
Their concern was two-fold, 1.) the WH was still focused on CONTAINMENT instead of domestic mitigation (closures, PPE distribution, readying hospitals, shelter in place orders). The experts had been pushing these measures since the middle of February. The wrong focus would prove costly, and they knew it. 2.) the travel ban (which didn’t include Americans) would bring Americans home in droves from Europe. We all saw the scenes at O’Hare and various airports. The ban dropped a virus bomb on the country, on top of the what was already brewing.
Forensic genome tracking proved that the majority of NYC cases originated in Europe and had been circulating since mid-February. The experts didn’t need this forensic evidence to predict that was the case. It was a basic pandemic assumption that anyone with pandemic knowledge would make.
Which is why they started pushing for strong MITIGATION efforts across the nation starting in mid-February.
RIGHT NOW, THE PANDEMIC CURVE MAY BE FLATTENING..BUT IMAGINE HOW IT WOULD HAVE LOOKED IF YOU BACKED UP THE STATE MITIGATION EFFORTS ROUGHLY ONE MONTH AGO.
This isn’t a HIND SIGHT IS 20/20 SITUATION. We are where we are because expertise and meticulous planning for a pandemic was ignored until it was WAY TOO LATE.
BTW, I’d love to see a scientist or two on the OPEN UP THE COUNTRY TRIBUNAL. They might be able to make a suggestion or two.
APRIL 15
A sobering but hopeful read.
“Everyone wants to know when this will end,” said Devi Sridhar, a public-health expert at the University of Edinburgh. “That’s not the right question. The right question is: How do we continue?”
“I think people haven’t understood that this isn’t about the next couple of weeks,” said Michael Osterholm, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota. “This is about the next two years.”
It’s a fairly long article and you may need to read it a few times for the principles and message to sink in (I read it several times)…BUT IT’S IMPERATIVE THAT WE ALL GIVE IT A SHOT.
It captures what I’ve felt on a gut level since January, but admittedly, couldn’t put into proper words or context—because I was focused on epidemiological models, WHICH ONLY GET US SO FAR. NOT FAR ENOUGH.
Also, because I’m not as smart as these engineers and scientists…and I haven’t studied complex systems and risk engineering for decades. In other words, I was at a slight disadvantage.
(For the record, some epidemiologists got this right. I know, because I follow their work.)
***”What is happening right now is not because all the epidemiologists and virologists around the world are wrong, but because they’re asked to make decisions and construct models about something they don’t know nearly enough about.”
***”….if you have a disease that is both contagious and deadly, you don’t -have to- first wait and (build a model to) see how deadly and contagious it is, as an epidemiologist is wont to do, you can act right off the bat. Of course the scientists at the WHO and various government know this basic stuff, but they still haven’t acted accordingly.”
***”It will cost something to reduce mobility in the short term, but to fail do so will eventually cost everything—if not from this event, then one in the future. Outbreaks are inevitable, but an appropriately precautionary response can mitigate systemic risk to the globe at large. But policy- and decision-makers must act swiftly and avoid the fallacy that to have an appropriate respect for uncertainty in the face of possible irreversible catastrophe amounts to “paranoia,” or the converse a belief that nothing can be done.”
***”When one deals with deep uncertainty, both governance and precaution require us to hedge for the worst. While risk-taking is a business that is left to individuals, collective safety and systemic risk are the business of the state. Failing that mandate of prudence by gambling with the lives of citizens is a professional wrongdoing that extends beyond academic mistake; it is a violation of the ethics of governing. The obvious policy left now is a lockdown, with overactive testing and contact tracing: follow the evidence from China and South Korea rather than thousands of error-prone computer codes.”
APRIL 17
One final thought for Friday, before I sign off. The retail and public consumer “economy” will not return to close to its original levels until this virus is mostly eradicated from our lives. Period. Contrary to what we are being led to believe by a ghoulish minority…many people either directly or indirectly understand what they need to do to proactively manage their risk of infection in a death plague.
“OpenTable bookings had declined 70% before US restaurants were closed.”
“Swedish movie theaters are open but revenues are down 90%.”
“When will government open up the economy?” is the wrong question. Open doors and no customers is not an economy!”
TIME TO SWITCH GEARS and shift pandemic related efforts in a different direction. Facebook served as an effective platform to sound the alarm and help friends, readers and the general public SOMEWHAT prepare for the initial impact of COVID19.
As time moved on, we all found ourselves in what I call THE IN BETWEEN. Still looking back at mistakes that can’t be undone, while trying to focus on preventing mistakes tomorrow and getting on with our “new” lives. And when I say tomorrow…I truly mean THE NEXT DAY.
I FEEL LIKE WE’VE ENTERED A NEW PHASE, WHERE MOST OF OUR ENERGY needs to be focused on the future. MOST. NOT ALL. This doesn’t mean forgetting or ignoring the entirely inexcusable and ongoing lack of leadership from the White House.
IT MEANS SPENDING LESS ENERGY ON WHAT HAS ALREADY PASSED AND MORE ON WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE MOVING FORWARD.
I didn’t just come up with this “idea” today. I’ve been working on this with a likeminded group of friends for the past week to create–> https://covid19-trustinscience.com A STAND ALONE RESOURCE (AWAY FROM FACEBOOK) TO PRESENT THE MOST UPDATED, ACCURATE INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ONGOING PANDEMIC CRISIS—UPDATED DAILY.
We’ll use Facebook to give you a quick, commentary free summary of updates.
You’ll be able to easily sort through several categories to get what you want out of it.
AND YES, the site will still include CRITICAL ARTICLES. We will actively DEBUNK the latest nonsense…if AND ASSUREDLY WHEN it arises. PLEASE SHARE THIS FAR AND WIDE!
As I shift more and more from a WARN to WATCH posture (I’ve always been watching), I’d like to share some resources you can use to keep an eye on big picture and local developments:
I was going to lead this post with something even snarkier like–>
SCREW IT. JUST TELL ALL THE BOOMERS THIS IS NO WORSE THAN THE FLU AND THAT THEY SHOULD ALL GO ON CRUISES OR VISIT VENICE OR THAT LICKING EVERY CAR DOOR HANDLE IN THE AMC THEATER PARKING LOT BUILDS UP YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM—but why should I replicate the valiant efforts I’ve already witnessed to exterminate what’s left of the Greatest Generation and Boomers? I mean, the nerve of these old people! Why can’t they just die from COVID19 like they do from the seasonal flu—in the thousands! Do they think they’re special?
I DO: Want to know why? Hint, hint…they’re our parents, grandparents and if you’re lucky…great-grandparents.
YOU OWE IT THEM (and yourself, and your partner, and your kids) TO READ THE ACCOUNT BELOW FROM A DOCTOR ON THE FRONT LINES IN ITALY. I’ve heard similar reports from other doctors interviewed on NPR or other news agencies.
IF THE ARTICLE IS TOO LONG FOR YOU, HERE’S THE BOTTOM LINE:
1.) What’s happening in Italy is unlike anything these doctors have ever seen. THIS IS NOT JUST THE FLU. The flu doesn’t crush healthcare systems in a few weeks. The Lombardy region is industrialized and the system is decent by all standards. Not perfect, but let’s face it…neither is ours.
2.) The elderly (70 and above) are AT MUCH HIGHER RISK of permanent organ damage or death from COVID19 than the seasonal flu. Preparing now for the scenario described below will save thousands of their lives.
3.) Young people have been hospitalized and put in the ICU, in much lower numbers, but on to #3.
4.) ICU beds and critical care equipment (ventilators) in Italy are at capacity. Your 8 year old who develops symptoms will not get a bed here once they are filled by the older people who will present severe symptoms far sooner. TRIAGE will go into effect. Your child is very, very likely to survive by being sent home with care instructions…the old person isn’t. Same for you if you’re under 60. Hospitals will prioritize those most at risk. That’s TRIAGE. One of the Italian doctors interviewed stated that only under the most unusual circumstances will SOMEONE UNDER 65-without complications-BE ADMITTED TO THE HOSPITAL.
5.) The US has one of the unhealthiest populations in the world. Italians have an average life expectancy FIVE years longer than Americans. That’s significant. Tons of reasons why, but there’s no point in getting into that. It’s fair to say that your average Italian boomer is healthier than a U.S. boomer. COVID19 will hit our older population just as hard or harder—IF WE ALL DON’T ACT RESPONSIBLY.
DON’T PANIC. JUST TAKE SOME BASIC PRECAUTIONS. THE MOST IMPORTANT BEING——SOCIAL DISTANCING IN ITS MANY FORMS.
WARNING: THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A POPULAR POST WITH SOME.
THE SIMPLE ANSWER IN TWO PARTS:
1.) You and your loved ones will have a far better chance of remaining uninfected by COVID19. 2.) As it starts to become even more obvious that COVID19 is here to stay for a while, this may be your last chance to acquire these supplies (I don’t have data to support this one, but just take a look at the news).
Is this panic or fear based? No. It’s data based.
The first thing we need to do is DROP the mantra “BUT THIS ISN’T AS BAD AS THE SEASONAL FLU!”
It isn’t, YET…but scientific data and disease epidemiologists says it WILL BE…or at the very least IT SHOULD BE. Let’s hope math and the experts are wrong. Or as a good Marine buddy of mine once said, “you can wish in one hand and shit in the other…and see which one fills up first.” You get the not so pretty picture.
THE SLIGHTLY MORE COMPLICATED ANSWER IN MANY PARTS:
1.) COVID19 IS NOT GOING AWAY ANY TIME SOON. It’s Reproductive Number (R0 or “R-naught”) is somewhere between 1.4 and 4, which is consistent with historical coronaviruses. R0 is the number of patients each patient infects on their own. An R0 BELOW 1 means the disease dies out. An R0 AT 1 means it infects one person and the disease grows at a steady rate. An R0 OVER 1 means the disease spreads exponentially. Season flu has an R0 of 1.2…WITH A VACCINE ADMINISTERED AHEAD OF TIME AND DURING THE FLU SEASON! COVID19’s R0 is most likely double or triple the seasonal flu, and there is NO VACCINE.
1A.) BONUS! Infected people typically shed the virus (directly give it to you or give it to a door handle that gives it to you) for 7 DAYS before showing symptoms. Some can remain asymptomatic for 14 days…higher time periods are suspected. ALSO, a study released today in the LANCET indicated that the mean number of days a patient remains contagious in ICU is 20 days in survivors. 37 days was the longest observed. This is not like your typical cold or sinus thing, where we all think “once I’m showing symptoms, I’m not contagious.”
2.) COVID19 IS MORE LETHAL THAN THE SEASONAL FLU. The latest data points coming out of China (44K patient analysis) and Italy did not dampen the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) as many had hoped. Data confirmed a fairly steady 2.3% overall CFR. That’s 23X higher than seasonal flu at .1%. The older you are, or sicker you are, the worse the scenario. If you’re older than 60, or have comorbid diseases (heart disease, diabetes, etc), you are anywhere from 36-148X more likely to die from COVID19 than the seasonal flu.
2A.) BONUS! 37,000 Americans died last year from the flu…and WE HAD A FLU VACCINE (admittedly influenza vaccines are not perfect). We will not have a vaccine for COVID19 for at least a year, maybe longer.
2B.) CYNICAL TAKE. Hey…maybe only the same number of Americans will die from COVID19 as the flu. WHAT A MORBID THOUGHT…one I see repeated day in and day out. One I’ve now seen both the leader of the US and UK state publicly. SEE the part where I say BUY TOILET PAPER and other stuff NOW, because with our leaders spouting this attitude, I can assure you they do not have your best interest at heart. Listen to the experts please.
3.) COVID19 IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NUMBERS SUGGEST. This is a math based theory.I’m not going to get into the math, but the bottom line is that we haven’t been testing for COVID19 in any wide scale manner. As testing picks up, we’ll start to see a glimpse of the real numbers. WE HAVE TO FACE IT. COVID19 has been here since the first infected travelers got off the plane from Asia. We don’t know when that happened, but since China has been fighting the outbreak since December, it’s fair to say that the first infected passengers arrived in January. TWO MONTHS AGO. If you understand exponential growth, you’ll quickly understand why the currently reported numbers are likely off by a magnitude of ten or more.
SO…WHAT WAS I SAYING EARLIER? Oh yeah. It might be prudent to prepare for a short (2-4 week) period of time when you can stay away from the general public…or anyone outside of your circle of sanitized trust. Make sure the vulnerable in your family or in your neighborhood are similarly situated. Significant social distancing by the population (to include self-quarantine/isolation) will be the only way to drop that R0 below or close enough to 1 to slow this thing down to a manageable level. Please plan accordingly, in a non-panicked manner…before it is too late. AND an updated reading list for those interested:
For those of you that made it this far…YES, I should be writing a book right now, but I’m trying to keep you and your peeps alive and well. And I’m happy to do it.
As you can imagine, I’ve digested hundreds of articles over the past few weeks related to the coronavirus threat. Several have stood out as well-balanced and informative. Giving these articles a few minutes of your time will put you on the right track to “Prepare without fear. Prepare with intelligence. Prepare with benevolence.”— Dr. Hal Cohen.
As of yesterday, I can no longer individually reply to requests for information or opinions regarding the COVID-19 virus. The number of emails and messages has become overwhelming. That said, I don’t want to leave readers and friends hanging, so I’ve put together the key information, predictions and recommendations that I’ve gathered or formed over the past few weeks.
BEFORE I GET STARTED—THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO PANIC, but it is definitely time to take a few key steps to avoid panic later.
Disclaimer: I’m not a scientific expert in pandemic epidemiology…or anything for that matter. I exhaustively researched pandemics and healthcare plans to address pandemics for my first novel, THE JAKARTA PANDEMIC (TJP), which was published in 2010. TJP was one of the first modern novels to address the average citizen’s experience during a lethal pandemic, from the arrival of the virus to a sensationalized breakdown of society. The virus I “brought to life” was far worse than anything we’ve seen in recorded history. That’s how you sell fiction. I don’t think we’ll ever see anything even remotely as deadly and destructive as the virus I created for that novel. Why tell you this? Because we’re not dealing with this kind of scenario with COVID-19—BUT WE’RE STILL FACING A UNIQUELY LETHAL CRISIS. Let me explain.
WHAT ARE WE ACTUALLY DEALING WITH?
CONTAGIOUSNESS:
COVID-19 is very likely twice as contagious as the seasonal flu, spread by DROPLET CONTACT(cough, sneeze or nose/mouth wipe that ends up on a surface and is then transmitted when someone else touches the surface…or if someone sneezes/coughs right into your face) and quite possibly some AIRBORNE CONTACT(aerosolized droplets from coughs and sneezes float around for a while and land in your mouth, eyes or other mucus membranes). Airborne contact has not been scientifically demonstrated, but the fact that it spreads faster than seasonal flu has experts suspected an airborne component.
MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY:
Chinese epidemiological reports based on current infection data puts the case fatality rate (CFR) at around 2%. This may change, but experts think it will hover right around that number. Seasonal flu has a CFR around .1%…so COVID-19 is 10-20X more lethal if contracted. On top of that, 20% of those infected require critical care (ICU level) to survive. This is important to remember.
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND CASE FATALITY BREAKDOWN:
Noted Harvard epidemiologist and many other experts expect 40-70% of world population to be exposed to COVID-19 within a year.
UNDER 50 Years old—.2 to .4 CFR (2-4X greater than seasonal flu. Not so bad?)
This is rough guess stuff based on data presented above and expert opinion (not mine).
This will not be an apocalyptic scenario like any of my books. We’re looking at a slower burn scenario with limited, but significant impacts on society and daily life.
The food supply/power grid/water supply systems are unlikely to fail. I just don’t see that happening. What I do see happening is a brief, intense run on the stores (a few weeks), which will empty the shelves temporarily. Food will return, but daily essentials like toilet paper (think of what you resupply every few weeks), OTC medicines, prescription medicines will constantly be in demand. Picture a grocery store and how much shelf space is dedicated to different classes of items.
You will need to prepare for a 1-2 month period of general, but not complete “shut down.” Businesses closed. Restaurants shut. Day care and schools closed. Work places closed? THIS WILL BE THE MOST FRIGHTENING TIME—FOR GOOD REASON. You will want to avoid or severely limit public exposure. YOU NEED TO PREPARE FOR THIS! Can you remain mostly at home for a month or two, without resupplying? If you have to go out, can you keep yourself safe from infection and panic induced crime?
The closure of schools, daycares and work WILL SERIOUSLY STRAIN financially insecure families, if not ruin them financially. YOU MUST PLAN FOR THIS. Talk with employers ahead of time. Whatever it takes. This won’t last forever, but too many people can’t afford to take a single unpaid day off from work TODAY! I can’t understate the importance of this aspect.
Don’t count on the healthcare system to help you. The U.S. has 1 million hospital beds…only a fraction of those are capable of ICU level care. If 20% of half of our population requires critical care—that’s around 30 MILLION very sick people without a bed when the pandemic music stops!
WHAT CAN YOU DO TODAY?
Do whatever is within your means to prepare for a 1-2 month period of minimal public contact. Food. Medicine. Home essentials.FOCUS ON STUFF YOU CAN YOU USE EVEN IF COVID-19 DOESN’T MATERIALIZE. This is the key to readiness. Everything I buy will be used no matter what within a matter of a few years.
Prepare for your kids to be home. Even if the schools don’t close, do you really want them at school? The reported fatality rate is VERY LOW for kids, but they can still bring the virus home to YOU!
Start talking to your employer today about COVID-19 plans. Better to get the conversation rolling now, then to pull an absence that cost you your job or a few weeks of pay.
Stockpile FLU mitigating medications.CLICK LINK TO SEE LIST. Most of us will come down with nasty flu symptoms that are not life threatening, but can be very uncomfortable…and possibly get worse if left untreated.
Stockpile disinfectant supplies like bleach based sprays/solutions, disinfectant wipes for door handles/cars/shopping carts, hand sanitizer, and masks (any kind…to prevent wiping mouth with contaminated hand in public).
Stockpile IMMUNE SYSTEM boosting supplies like Multivitamins, extra Vitamin C, Elderberry in any form, Oregano Oil…lots of stuff out there that can help with this. Stay rested. Eat Healthy.
SUMMARY:
Let’s hope this doesn’t get nearly as bad as the experts suspect—BUT LET’S TAKE SOME STEPS NOW TO EASE EVERYONE’S FEARS AND BURDENS IF COVID-19 CONTINUES TO SPREAD.
This topic often comes up in conversation, and I often lead with “I don’t read nearly as much as I did before I started writing.” While that may be true, after doing a little back-tracking into 2019, I came up with a fairly healthy list of books that I somehow found the time to read.
I’d like to share that list with you, to include a few words about the titles or series. I’ll also link these titles to Amazon if you want to dig deeper. No affiliate income is derived from these links. I probably missed a few books…as I created the list, I thought of more.
LITERARY FICTION:
We Were the Lucky Ones by Georgia Hunter – Heart wrenching, based on the true story about one Polish-Jewish family’s epic struggle to survive the World War II. Compelling from star to finish.
YES…I need to expand this section in 2020!
HORROR:
Head Full of Ghosts by Paul Tremblay – Modern day, sublime version of The Exorcist…and so much more. The end will blow you away.
The Outsider by Stephen King – King at his best. Read the book and then watch the HBO series. They compliment each other perfectly.
The Institute by Stephen King – Loved this one. Had an epic feel. The end will leave you thinking hard for days to come.
We Sang In The Dark by Joe Hart – (Not yet released) This one left me afraid of the dark for a while. Joe has a way of doing that with his novels.
THRILLER (Any subgenre):
Recursion by Blake Crouch – Mind-blowing. Just get it right now and take this incredible journey.
Don’t Make a Sound by T.R. Ragan – (Not yet released) Takes the revenge thriller to the next level in a gritty and chillingly realistic hunt for a killer.
Origami Man by Matthew FitzSimmons – (Not yet released) Hard to beat the first four books in the Gibson Vaughn series, but FitzSimmons does it handily. Highly recommend the series!
A Gambler’s Jury by Victor Methos – Underdog, scrappy lawyer caught up in vicious conspiracy. Edgar nomination for Best Novel.
The Killer’s Wife by Victor Methos – Serial killers and a haunted prosecutor. Twists and turns galore.
Pray for the Girlby Joseph Souza – Edgy, tense…will keep you guessing until the end.
The Chain by Adrian McKinty – One of the most inventive premises I’ve read in a long time. Unputdownable.
Green Sun by Kent Anderson – A hypnotic cop thriller set in early 1980’s Oakland, California. Couldn’t put it down.
The Eighth Sister (Charles Jenkins Book 1) by Robert Dugoni – Flawlessly executed espionage novel and white-knuckle journey through the byzantine world of modern intelligence.
The Last Agent by Robert Dugoni – (Not yet released) Book 2 in Charles Jenkins series. Knocks it out of the park with a full throttle cat and mouse spy story.
The Killer Collective by Barry Eisler – A mashup of Eisler’s most iconic characters in full-tilt covert operations thriller.
Dark Tomorrow (Lisa Tanchik Book 2) by Reece Hirsch – (Not yet released) Cyber-espionage and warfare amidst a high stakes federal manhunt for a murderous sleeper agent.
The Spider Heist by Jason Kasper – Not your ordinary bank heist book. Not by a long shot. High octane action and twisty plot.
The David Rivers Thrillers (Books 1-5) by Jason Kasper – Gritty, brutal, unapologetic action by a former Green Beret. Burned through these books one after another.
Murder Board (Boston Crime Thriller Book 1) by Brian Shea – Brian Shea is the real deal. A veteran detective turned thriller author…It truly doesn’t get any better.
Bar at the End of the World by Tom Abrahams – Tom takes a killer premise and builds a dystopian world like you’ve never seen before.
Winter World(The Long Winter Trilogy Book 1) by A.G. Riddle – Classic A.G. Riddle. End of the world story that takes reader across space and time.
Solar War by A.G. Riddle – Book 2 in the Long Winter Trilogy. Riddle does what he does best…pushes the story to unimaginable places.
Our War by Craig DiLouie – A second civil war burns out of control across America. Brilliant rendering of a worst case scenario that feels all too real.
Sons of War by Nicholas Sansbury Smith – (Not yet released) As always, Smith reboots the post-apocalyptic genre with a unique story of a societal collapse.
The Path Between Worlds by Paul Antony Jones – Epic, saga like potential set in a world beyond imagination, but eerily familiar.
Forward Collection (short stories by Andy Weir, Blake Crouch, NK Jemisin, Paul Tremblay, Veronica Roth and Amor Towles) – Take your pick…you can’t go wrong with this powerhouse group of authors.
The Second Sleep by Robert Harris – Eerie from start to finish. A slow burn, dystopian masterpiece.
NON-FICTION:
Red Notice by Bill Browder – A sweeping indictment of Russian corruption and malice. Fast paced, expertly crafted. A must read.
Bad Blood by John Carreyrou – Investigative masterpiece chronicling the rise and fall of Theranous, a nebulous and sinister Silicon Valley startup.
The Road to Unfreedom by Timothy Snyder –Hard hitting book. “A stunning new chronicle of the rise of authoritarianism from Russia to Europe and America.“
The Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis – “Masterfully and vividly unspools the consequences if the people given control over our government have no idea how it works.“
Book 2 in the Ryan Decker series is now available internationally at Amazon (see links below book cover) in ebook, paper and audiobook formats.
A Border Patrol murder exposes a high-level conspiracy in USA Today bestselling author Steven Konkoly’s explosive thriller.
After exposing and dismantling a deep-state conspiracy that nearly destroyed his life, Ryan Decker finds his covert skills have put him on the radar of influential Senator Steele. Now Steele needs his help. Two patrol agents were killed in a bizarre explosion near the US-Mexico border—and the evidence doesn’t line up with the official story.
Enlisted by Steele to run an undercover, off-the-books investigation, Decker and his partner, Harlow, head to the border town of Tecate. But when they’re caught in an ambush, Decker realizes they’ve stumbled onto something far more dangerous than any of them understood.
The cover-up is rooted deep in the Department of Defense itself. Fearful for their own lives and unable to trust anyone outside their small circle of skilled associates, Decker and Harlow set in motion a risky plan to stop a criminal conspiracy.
US AND INTERNATIONAL LINKS BELOW! Available at AMAZON in ebook, hard copy, hard cover and audiobook form.
WOW! It has been over a year since I last posted here. Crazy that more than a year has passed since the last Steven Konkoly book. I promise I won’t make you wait that long again. That said, I think you’ll find the long wait to have been well worth it.
THE RESCUE has arrived, featuring Ryan Decker, Harlow Mackenzie and a cast of memorable characters that early readers have thoroughly enjoyed. Don’t take my word for it! Over 600 reviews with a 4.6 out of 5 average speak for THE RESCUE.
US AND INTERNATIONAL LINKS BELOW! Available at AMAZON in ebook, hard copy, hard cover and audiobook form.
SOMETHING MERCILESS WATCHES OVER THE OUTBREAK–GUIDING ITS COURSE.
Having narrowly survived the KILL BOX, HOT ZONE’s hardened survivors and their KILL BOX allies separate to pursue different objectives–outside of the Indianapolis quarantine zone.
For David Olson, that means bringing his son south, to the safe haven of his parents’ home–far away from the infected cities. Eric Larsen takes him up on the offer to rest and heal at the house, before departing on the long journey to find his family in Colorado.
For Rich and his secretive black ops team, that means transporting Dr. Chang and Dr. Hale to a secure facility out east, where they will join the nation’s few surviving bioweapons researchers–with the hopes of pinpointing the source of the virus and possibly developing a vaccine.
Neither group will get very far, before the true face of the evil controlling the Zulu Virus arrives–tempting them with irresistible opportunities.
DANGEROUS OPPORTUNITIES, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SWEEP THEM RIGHT INTO A LETHAL FIRESTORM
A LETHAL BIOWEAPON HAS BEEN RELEASED ACROSS AMERICA.
With their daring escape plan thwarted at the last possible moment, HOT ZONE’s motley band of survivors faces a worst-case scenario. Forced to take refuge near the epicenter of the bioweapons outbreak, deep inside in a city gone mad, THEIR TIME IS RUNNING OUT.
Unable to slow or adequately contain the infected population, the government has triggered KILL BOX, a desperate and merciless contingency protocol.
HOT ZONE’s survivors have less than twenty-four hours to escape the KILL BOX.
The Zulu Virus Chronicles places you at ground zero during a chillingly realistic, insidious “event.” This is a story about regular people from different walks of life coming together to survive an unthinkable disaster.
I know. The blog post title sounds like some kind of movie nobody should watch, or an audiobook nobody should listen to! I figured the worse the title, the more curious you’d be. Morbidly curious.
HOT ZONE just hit the audiobook shelves at Audible and iTunes, so instead of a post with a single title, I thought I’d create a post listing all of my audiobook titles. A one stop reference for those of you with long commutes, long walks to take, long breaks at work OR those of you who simply don’t like to “READ.” I know who you are!
CLICK ON THE LINKS BELOW FOR EACH STORE
I’ll start with HOT ZONE and break it down by series after that. Happy Listening!
Not words you’d typically want to hear under any other circumstances.
HOT ZONE, the first book in THE ZULU VIRUS CHRONICLES, is now available in Kindle or hard copy on Amazon. The audiobook version will follow in August. HOT ZONE is also enrolled in the Kindle Unlimited program.
Lee: Having just finished HOT ZONE, I’ll start out by saying “I see what you did there.”
Steve: Is that a good or bad thing?
Lee: It’s a very good thing. For those of you wondering, there’s a subtle tie-in to one of your previous series, I won’t give it away, but let’s just say that it’s brilliant, hiding just below the surface. Obviously, you did this on purpose. Can you expand on that?
Steve: Guilty as charged. When I set out to write another series in the post-apocalyptic/dystopian/disaster genre, I wanted to take it in a different direction than most of the books recently written in the genre. I didn’t have to look very far. I had been sitting on a devastating scenario since 2012, when I wrote REDUX: A Black Flagged thriller. I had already created the perfect bioweapon, and put it in the hands of some very nefarious people. They just never got to use it thanks to some skilled and enterprising American operatives. The ZULU VIRUS CHRONICLES imagines what might have happened if that virus had been released.
Lee: So this isn’t a Black Flagged book.
Steve: Right. Fans of those books will find a few Easter Eggs, but this is an entirely new story that every thriller reader will enjoy. There’s no homework required to read the ZVC books.
Lee: That’s good to hear. Nobody likes homework. You obviously enjoy unleashing viruses on the world—that sounded kind of odd, didn’t it?
Steve: It did, but let’s go with it.
Lee: I’ll rephrase it. This isn’t the first time you’ve fictionally unleashed a virus on an unsuspecting world. Your first novel, The Jakarta Pandemic, imagined what it might take for an everyday family to survive a lethal pandemic and the ensuing societal collapse. In HOT ZONE, I strongly sensed a return to that type of storytelling.
Steve: I can’t tell you how happy I am to hear that. I really wanted to return to my roots with the ZULU VIRUS CHRONICLES, and tell the kind of story that launched my career. The Jakarta Pandemic was an intimate, if not claustrophobic, look at a pandemic’s impact on “normal people.” It focused less on the disease itself and more on the unpredictability of the human factor.
Lee: That’s what made it so fascinating in my opinion. It bucked all previous trends, focusing on regular citizens instead of the usual “CDC scientist running around the world saving the day.” Your characters barely left their neighborhood, and the neighborhood nearly killed them.
Steve: I take a similar approach in HOT ZONE, but the characters won’t have the luxury of lingering in one place for very long. Readers will get a taste of several different walks of life, as the disaster unfolds around this diverse group of characters. By the time the outbreak is in full swing, the characters will be doing what they do best in my books. Trying to survive. Moving frequently will be one of the keys to survival in this series.
Lee: You certainly don’t make it easy on your characters in this one. I can attest to that. I do have to call you out on one thing. There’s a hint of conspiracy in HOT ZONE, and a scientist who looks like he might be in a position to “save the day.” He definitely falls into the regular character category for now, but I see some potential. Am I wrong?
Steve: I can neither confirm nor deny the expansion of his role in future books, but I do like to take characters out of their comfort zones, so we’ll see. As for hints of conspiracy in HOT ZONE—don’t forget that we’re talking about a suspected, widespread bioweapons release on U.S. soil. A conspiracy lurks. I just haven’t decided how much of it will come into play within the series. Right now, it’s in the background, where it might reach out from time to time to hinder or even help the characters—the true focus of the story.
Lee: HOT ZONE is a frighteningly realistic look at a bioweapons attack from several angles on the ground. You obviously put a ton of research and thought into this scenario. So…why bioweapons?
Steve: Because bioweapons scare the $#@% out of me! Seriously. I wrote The Jakarta Pandemic partly because I’ve always been obsessed with viruses and biological warfare. I blame Stephen King’s The Stand, which I read as a teenager. People forget that Captain Trips, the virus in The Stand, originated in a fictional U.S. bioweapons lab. The beginning of that book was brilliant, and stuck with me for years. Still does. I’m rambling. After The Jakarta Pandemic, I didn’t stray far from viruses. No wonder. Right?
Lee: I see where you’re coming from, now.
Steve: I don’t like to be predictable. That’s a bad thing for an author.
Lee: You’re hardly predictable, especially with HOT ZONE. I guarantee readers won’t see where this book is headed. Last question. You claimed to have “created” the perfect bioweapon. What did you mean by that, fictionally of course.
Steve: I appreciate the disclaimer. I don’t need any more black vans on the block. Bioweapons in general are horrifying by nature, designed not only to kill and maim, but to inflict fear. A slow killer that requires the maximum amount of resources to handle. There’s no easy solution when dealing with an effective bioweapons attack. Unlike bullets or bombs, a properly designed bioweapon can cripple everyone, but leave them alive—needing extensive on site care and support. The impact of a bioweapon can’t be underestimated or overstated. It’s more like the “perfect weapon.” And in the grand scheme of terrorist weapons, they can be relatively inexpensive, flying under the radar in hidden laboratories around the world, or right here in the U.S.
Lee: Thanks for scaring the $#@! out of me, Steve.
WITH LESS THAN TWO MONTHS BEFORE THE PROJECTED RELEASE IN LATE JUNE…I figured it was time to give give you more than just a few teasers about HOT ZONE, book one in The Zulu Virus Chronicles.
Before I go crazy here, I want to highlight an opportunity to be an integral part of the The Zulu Virus Chronicles launch. I plan to provide advanced reader copies (ARCs) of HOT ZONE (and all future books in this series) to a sizable group of readers. I can’t include everyone in this, but for those of you that would be willing to read a free copy of the books ahead of the launch, and possibly share your opinion of the book with the pubic, I will consider you a candidate. I will also form a members only group on Facebook, where we can “hang out,” and I can pass news, launch material and get your opinion on aspects of the story. You don’t have to be on Facebook to be part of this group. If you’re interested in doing this, send me an email at freebooks@striblingmedia.com OR message me directly at my author page on Facebook by CLICKING HERE.
NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF. What exactly can you expect from The Zulu Virus Chronicles?
Fans of my Black Flagged books will be somewhat familiar with the Zulu Virus, which has been featured in that series. The Zulu Virus Chronicles, however, takes place in a world mostly separate from the Black Flagged series. An alternate reality, so to speak. Black Flagged readers will catch a few “Easter eggs,” but The Zulu Virus Chronicles is a post-apocalyptic thriller saga, with a strong hint of political/government conspiracy. The setting is current day, in a Midwest city—Indianapolis. Much of the action takes place within a thirty minute drive of my house. I’ve driven the routes. Walked the streets. Shopped in the same stores. Visited the locations. I kind of feel bad inflicting this disaster on my new hometown, but it’s what I do. Scarborough, Maine was never the same after The Jakarta Pandemic. I just hope my new neighbors don’t think I’m crazy…too.
With that said, here’s the cover and blurb for HOT ZONE, BOOK ONE. After the blurb, you’ll find several sample chapters, which will introduce you to all of the main characters, and hopefully scare the $#@! out of you. Keep in mind. The weaponized virus you’ll meet in these chapters was not my idea. Minds far more disturbed thought of this first. I just hope they never successfully create and deploy it.
“By the pricking of my thumbs,
Something wicked this way comes.”
-William Shakespeare’s Macbeth-
SOMETHING INSIDIOUS HAS EMERGED—RIGHT IN THE HEARTLAND OF OUR NATION.
Dr. Lauren Hale, a hospital resident, is nearly killed by a raving mad emergency room patient, in a senseless, unprovoked attack.
Officer David Olson, veteran cop and former Marine, returns from a father-son camping trip to discover that his ex-wife has vanished under bizarre circumstances, and his police department is on the verge of collapse.
Jack and Emma Harper, a young upwardly mobile couple, find their cozy, city neighborhood rapidly descending into madness.
Dr. Eugene Chang, a research scientist for major pharmaceutical company, makes a shocking discovery that might explain the rapidly spreading wave of illness and violence gripping the city.
Eric Larsen, leader of a top-secret, rapid-response unit, circles high above Indianapolis, in an unmarked military transport. Mission still unknown, his team waits to parachute into the night.
WITHIN FORTY-EIGHT HOURS, ALL OF THEIR WORLDS WILL COLLIDE, driving them to join forces to survive the living nightmare that has been unleashed on their city—AND THE NATION.
WELCOME TO THE HOT ZONE!
SAMPLE CHAPTERS BELOW. Keep in mind, these have not been professionally edited. This is a raw, sneak peek into HOT ZONE.
THE DEALS AND NEW RELEASES KEEP ON COMING! I’ll keep this short, in bullet format, because my wife informed me that I have a tendency to ramble…and she’s the boss.
1.) Both novels in my Fractured State series (near future covert operations and conspiracy thriller) have been discounted by my publisher to $1.99. They aren’t free, but at $1.99 each, you’re looking at a 75% discount for the series. Click the images below to grab a copy from the U.S. Amazon store. Sorry, but the deal is not available outside of the U.S.
2.) Long time good friend and fellow author, Lee West, just released Resist and Evade, sequel to the smash hit, Survive and Escape. Lee’s Blue Lives Apocalypse Series focuses on the police response during a widespread EMP event; a unique twist in an overworked genre. At my recommendation, Lee keeps the series at a very affordable $2.99 each. Trust me. These books are a steal at the price. Check out this series if you’re looking for something new in the post-apocalyptic genre. CLICK ON THE IMAGES for the U.S. Amazon Store.
3.) Bestselling author and good friend, Nicholas Sansbury Smith, has taken the post-apocalyptic genre by storm with his TRACKERS series. Nick rocked the military post-apocalyptic thriller world with his EXTINCTION CYCLE series, bringing that same expertise to the TRACKERS books. THE HUNTED, book 2 in the series hits the shelves (ebook and paper) on May 4. THE STORM, book 3, comes in October 2017. This is a very reasonably priced, rock-solid series of books. The first book is $2.99, a complete steal for this USA Today Bestselling author. CLICK ON THE IMAGES for the U.S. Amazon Store. You can also follow Nick through his newsletter by CLICKING HERE.
4.) Later this week, I’m going to reveal the full premise of my upcoming series, THE ZULU VIRUS CHRONICLES, to include a few initial chapters. I’m beyond excited about this series—the first book will be available in June 2017.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR CONTINUED READERSHIP AND SUPPORT!
***Post-apocalyptic fans will find some VERY exciting news at the end of this post (new series), so keep reading. Warning: Spoilers ahead if you haven’t read the Black Flagged series***
I’ve led readers on a wild ride through the Black Flagged series, most of that ride centered around a particularly nasty, weaponized virus created by Dr. Anatoly Reznikov, a devilishly unhinged, former employee of the Russian Federation’s State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology (VECTOR Institute).
—REDUX (Book 2) followed Dr. Reznikov to Monchegorsk, Russia, where he infected a city of 60,000 inhabitants with the ZULU Virus—in a twisted revenge plot against the Russian government. Readers saw first hand what can happen to a populated area hit with the virus.
—APEX (Book 3) brought the ZULU Virus to the United States, where it was snatched from the hands of Al Qaeda, by a sophisticated domestic terrorist group that had orchestrated the creation and delivery of the virus from the very start.
—VEKTOR (Book 4) extinguished the bioweapons threat created by Dr. Reznikov, along with the illegal bioweapons research program at the Vector Institute—ALMOST.
—OMEGA (Book 5) brings Dr. Reznikov and his designer viruses back into the spotlight, amidst political turmoil in the United States and a blossoming conspiracy.
—VORTEX (Book 6)—TO BE RELEASED IN 2017 OR EARLY 2018—will marry Dr. Reznikov’s lethal creations to the ultimate conspiracy against the United States.
Excited yet! I am. The conspiracy introduced in REDUX (Book 2) will come full circle in VORTEX (Book 6), which I promise will be unlike anything you’ve read before. I know, that’s a tall order.
Why should post-apocalyptic readers and fans be excited by all of this?
Think The Jakarta Pandemic meets The Perseid Collapse, with a hint of conspiracy. Still not convinced?
CLICK HERE (PDF) to read a few of the hard core post-apocalyptic chapters from Black Flagged Redux to get a taste of what’s to come. This series will not be directly linked to the current Black Flagged books. It is a standalone, post-apocalyptic series based on a worst-case scenario release of the ZULU Virus in the United States.
WHAT IS THE ZULU VIRUS? Check out the description of the virus taken directly from the Black Flagged novels.
“A weaponized form of herpes simplex encephalitis, genetically modified to aggressively attack the brain’s temporal lobe. Left untreated, herpes simplex encephalitis has a high fatality rate. Near seventy percent. Treated aggressively, we can reduce this to thirty percent.”
“If the Zulu virus is released into a public water source, containment of the disease itself will not be our biggest challenge. Physical containment of the impacted community and the management of information will be your biggest priority. Weaponized encephalitis is the ultimate biological weapon.”
“Herpes simplex encephalitis does more than produce casualties…In those treated aggressively, less than three percent regain normal brain function. This can vary from very mild to severe impairment, depending upon several factors. Early treatment with high dose, intravenous acyclovir is the only modifiable factor scientists have identified.”
“If released in a municipal water supply, unknown to the population, it has the potential to affect nearly everyone. Take a small town of twenty thousand people. Even if we discovered the attack immediately after the virus circulated through the drinking water and treated everyone in the town with acyclovir, 95% of them will suffer neurological impairment at varying levels. 19,000 citizens. Neurological impairment will range from full homicidal rage and hyper-aggressive behavior to minor seizures. Brain damage in almost every case.”
Media Report regarding situation in Monchegorsk, Russian Federation taken from Black Flagged Apex—IMAGINE THE SAME REPORT COMING OUT OF INDIANAPOLIS.
“Confirmed news from the area is scarce, but persistent rumors of a deadly epidemic continue to surface. So far, nobody has been able to confirm the shocking and unbelievable footage sent anonymously to Reuters, suggesting that the Russian military is systematically destroying the city and killing its inhabitants. Russian officials have made no comment. One thing is for certain, the Russian government has taken extraordinary measures to seal off the area surrounding Monchegorsk. What is truly frightening is the fact that the world hasn’t seen an emergency government response on this scale from the Russian government since Chernobyl.”
MORE NEWS ABOUT THIS SERIES TO COME! Enjoy this cover reveal.
THANK YOU for very patiently waiting for this book. I released Black Flagged VEKTOR (Book 4) in the summer of 2013, after deciding to take a short break from the series. I’d written four books back-to-back in two years and was starting to see the Black Flagged characters in my sleep. That short break turned into a long detour. Six books and several novellas, in two different series, to be exact. I really appreciate your loyalty and patience. I think you’ll find OMEGA worth the wait.
I had a lot of time to ponder the fifth book, which I thought would be the last novel in the core series. I’m very pleased to let you know that there will be a sixth book. Halfway through OMEGA, I realized that the finale I had in mind for this story was worth a full novel, so you can expect book six within the next year or so. I don’t want to give too much away, but the scope of the conspiracy unveiled in OMEGA is vast and devastating, unlike anything you may have read before.
On that note, I need to make a statement that I’ve never included in my books before OMEGA:
All characters and corporations or establishments appearing in this work are fictitious. Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead, is purely coincidental.
Why the disclaimer? You’ll soon find out. Here’s a little background and a hint. In 2012, I created a fictitious political movement for Black Flagged APEX, called True America. Some similarities in core beliefs between the Tea Party movement and True America existed, but my intention, as stated in APEX, was to create a third, viable party vying for political power. I had plans for True America later in the series. Fast-forward to the spring of 2016, when I finished the first third of OMEGA, in which True America shocks the establishment and wins the 2008 (series time) presidential election. You can probably see where this is headed.
“Truth is stranger than fiction, but because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn’t” — Mark Twain.
Black Flagged OMEGA takes place in 2009, roughly two years after the events of Black Flagged VEKTOR.
OMEGA: A BLACK FLAGGED THRILLER (Book 5) redefines the characters, organizations and all of the relationships readers have come to known in the Black Flagged series. At the same time, OMEGA introduces a blistering conspiracy perpetrated at the highest levels of power.
VORTEX: A BLACK FLAGGED THRILLER (Book 6—COMING IN 2018) will unleash a disturbingly familiar, but entirely reimagined conspiracy to the American people.
“A joint U.S.- Russian Special Forces raid against a hidden laboratory yields an alarming discovery. Anatoly Reznikov, the deranged bioweapons scientist stolen from U.S. custody a few years earlier, vanished minutes before the attack—taking his deadly work with him.
In the United States, Beltway power brokers grapple withTrue America’s surprise presidential win, finding the new administration to be anything but easy to work with. Karl Berg, demoted within the CIA due to the sudden shift in agency leadership, seeks to stay out of trouble, and retire quietly—a task he finds impossible when news of Reznikov’s near-capture unofficially reaches his desk.
Oblivious to the growing threats domestic and abroad, Daniel and Jessica Petrovich finalize their plan to abandon the “Black Flag” business for good, only to have it delayed by close-hitting news. A last minute trip to the United States drags them closer to an unfolding plot in the heart of Washington D.C.
A plot connected to everyone and everything the Petrovich’s have touched. A diabolical conspiracy none of them saw coming—AND ONLY ONE GROUP CAN STOP!”
For those of you who’ve read FRACTURED STATE, you’ve probably guessed that the key conflict of the series revolves around WATER. While the public faces of the One Nation Coalition (anti-secessionists) and the California Liberation Movement (secessionists) fight over the fate of California and the disposition of its natural and man-made resources in Fractured State, a game changing plot has been set in motion that will be exposed in ROGUE STATE. A plot that could potentially undermine the billions of dollars invested by One Nation Coalition supporters to ensure the future of the profits in the Golden State.
Nathan Fisher’s family, along with David Quinn find themselves at the very heart of a second conspiracy aimed at virtually guaranteeing California’s secession from the United States. I don’t want to give too much away, but I’ll leave you with a few clues.
1.) The image below shows a recent picture of Lake Mead, on the reservoir side of the Hoover Dam. The light colored rock represents the water level several years ago. The drop over the last decade has been drastic, unlike anything seen since the dam’s construction. The continuing drought has dropped the water level of Lake Mead to critical levels. In the 2035 world of Fractured State, the level would be at least four to five times lower, at the point where water trickles downriver. At that level, no water can be pumped to Las Vegas, or diverted to Arizona. The electrical power plant run by the flowing water has been decommissioned. California receives little to no water from a source that had once provided most of Southern California’s water supply.
2.) In 2035, the only peaceful way to restore the Colorado River flow would be to either convince multi-billionaire agriculture barons in the Great Plains to stop illegally diverting water, the only way for them to currently water their crops, OR, to convince the U.S. government to stop the illegal redirection of water from the Colorado River. Southwestern states have pursued both options for nearly two decades, but nothing has changed.
3.) Another option exists. Rivers flow naturally, unless they’re obstructed. You can probably guess the rest.
If you’re interested in digging deeper into the politics,history and controversies surrounding the Colorado River Basin and other major fresh water sources, you can explore this links:
If you missed them, read Part One, Part Two and Part Threeof Behind the Scenes of the Fractured State series!
With the launch of ROGUE STATE (Book 2 in the Fractured State Series) a few days away, I wanted to give readers and fans a look behind the curtains of the upcoming release. I thought I’d go with a TOP TEN list, because it’s early and I don’t have to come up with clever seaways between paragraphs. I have a 10 hour writing day ahead of me, so bear with this streamlined process. What this really means is that 1.) I haven’t had enough coffee yet. AND 2.) I’m getting a little lazier, truth be told.
HERE’S WHAT READERS CAN EXPECT ON JANUARY 10th!
1.) Adaptive Camouflage: Sometimes called “active camouflage,” this fledgling technology today will be fully developed and available to the military and highest bidder in the 2035 world created for Rogue State. You can imagine the tactical benefits of rendering a vehicle or operative invisible to the naked eye or infrared detection. Check out a few links describing today’s efforts to harness this technology. The image to the right is from the movie Predator, I couldn’t resist…the ultimate in adaptive camouflage.
2.) Rifle mounted, goggle integrated cameras: This isn’t exactly something new, but it isn’t routinely fielded today. I got the idea from playing Call of Duty and did some research. Like anything that might provide the modern day field operative or soldier an advantage, companies are putting consider time and money into development. Consider the benefit of being able to stick your rifle around a corner, see a target and shoot it.
3.) Facial Recognition Software is widely, publicly and openly used by law enforcement and government agencies in 2035. A few states have declared it unconstitutional and prohibit the use of FRS technology. This isn’t new either, but as far as we know, proactive, wide scale use by the government hasn’t been implemented yet—OR HAS IT? Here’s a quick paragraph from Rogue State describing the problem.
“Federal law enforcement agencies devoted significant funding to co-opting municipal and state FRS feeds, posing a significant detection risk. The Department of Homeland Security maintained a massive persons-of-interest FRS database, reportedly tracking the real-time movements of nearly a million people.”
4.) Most of Texas, the American Southwest and the western half of the lower breadbasket states have become the New Dust Bowl, an area ravaged by drought severe weather patterns. Massive dust storms and firestorms have driven most of the population, in the worst hit areas (Arizona, New Mexico and west Texas) away permanently.
5.) Taking advantage of the population resettlement, drug cartels from Mexico have seized control of most of Arizona and New Mexico. The U.S.-Mexico border no longer exists as a barrier in those areas, and fierce battles rage between well equipped cartel soldiers and National Guard units in key border cities along the Texas border. It’s fair to say that the State Department has issued a travel advisory to Americans thinking about vacationing in Mexico. Much of Rogue State takes place a few miles south of the border or in these lawless U.S. areas.
6.) Social Media Network monitoring provides real time crime and terrorist information for law enforcement agencies and our government. Once again, this isn’t something I imagined. It’s happening today—I just took it to a new level in Rogue State.
7.) Mercenaries used by corporations to achieve their “goals.” You already got a good taste of this in Fractured State. CERBERUS is essentially a high-end mercenary outfit retained by corporations to safeguard their financial interests—or create new ones. In Rogue State, you’ll meet a slightly less refined group of mercenaries, comprised of former Russian Special Forces (GRU) operators. They specialize in murder and mayhem, which will unfold spectacularly and gruesomely.
8.) New Characters: Sounds kind of boring, but trust me, you’ll like some of the new faces that appear in Rogue State. David Quinn’s father, Stuart Quinn plays a key role, along with David’s brother in-law, Blake. The Russian mercenary commander, Chukov, won’t fail to make an impression. He’s a piece of work, and was a pleasure to write. Nissie Keane, a hacker employed by CERBERUS will play an important role in Rogue State and future books (spoiler). Finally, readers will get to know Jose (Nathan and company’s mysterious savior from book one) very well, along with some of his most trusted California Liberation Movement operatives.
9.) Fracking: And not the kind from the rebooted Battlestar Galactica show. I won’t say much about this, because it would be a big spoiler for the rest of the series. Let’s just say that CERBERUS isn’t looking for oil in the California desert.
10.) A Bigger Plot Unfolds: I’ll talk more about this in the fifth Behind The Scenes article, but it will become clear to Nathan Fisher and David Quinn that the California Liberation Movement is far more than what it seems to the public. They’ll face a tough decision when confronted with the full scope of Jose’s plan.
If you’re read this in the other post, go ahead and skip this paragraph. Instead of the traditional “end of the year review” about what I’ve accomplished as a writer, I wanted to highlight something different this year. What I accomplished as a reader. 2016 was without a doubt my best year as an author from every angle, but it was also one of the best years I can remember as a reader.
2016 introduced me to new writers and firmly solidified my commitment to some of my previous favorites. Below you’ll find my 2016 THRILLER reading list, in no particular order. This is not an all encompassing list by any means. I’ll probably add to the list as the days go forward. It’s also worth mentioning that you should strongly consider checking out the backlists and earlier in series books for ALL of these authors.
Instead of the traditional “end of the year review” aboutwhat I’ve accomplishedas a writer, I wanted to highlight something different this year. What I accomplished as a reader. 2016 was without a doubt my best year as an author from every angle, but it was also one of the best years I can remember as a reader.
2016 brought some exciting new names to the POST APOCALYPTIC and DYSTOPIAN genres, in addition to plenty of releases from the “tried and true” PA authors of the past several years. Below you’ll find my 2016 reading list, in no particular order. Some of the books are first in a new series. Some are a 5th or 6th in a series. Each author is worth checking out in full! Many have written multiple series. I hope you get as much entertainment out of these as I did.
UPDATE 12/14/16: The THRILLER THIRTEEN boxset raised close to $4,000 for the International Justice Mission. A HUGE THANK YOU to the thousands of readers that supported this cause, and grabbed a great compilation of stories. On top of that, the boxset hit the USA Today Bestseller List! See below:
SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE HERE! Each boxset on sale for 99 CENTS! The best part? One of my stories is included in each set! Already read my books? No worries. You’ll find novels and novellas by some of the top authors out there.
UPDATE 12/11/16: THIS BOXSET IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE FOR THE LIMITED TIME OFFER OF 99 CENTS.
THRILLER THIRTEEN features novellas and short stories by bestselling authors in thriller, mystery and crime. All proceeds go to the International Justice Mission, an organization dedicated to fighting human slavery and trafficking around the globe.You’ll find ORIGINS: A Black Flagged Short Story in this boxset, which takes readers back to Daniel Petrovich’s early years as a Black Flagged operative. It’s a gritty, brutal look at Daniel’s undercover mission to infiltrate a Serbian paramilitary group during Slobodan Milosevic’s reign of terror in Yugoslavia.
KILLS, CHILLS AND THRILLS features a “first in a series novel” from seven bestselling authors that spawned fan-fiction Kindle Worlds. Proceeds will go to Read Aloud America, an organization dedicated to promoting family literacy in the United States. I have contributed The Perseid Collapse to the boxset; a book that has spawned 35 fan-fiction stories set in that post-apocalyptic world. The fan-fiction worlds created by seven authors featured in the boxset have inspired more than 200 stories set in those worlds.
The long awaited fifth book in the Black Flagged series is now available for PREORDER. Ebook version only for the preorder. Hardcopy and audiobook versions will be available closer to the FEBRUARY 20, 2017 release date.
BOOK FIVE has been renamed OMEGA (Reprisals and Vortex are gone), to symbolize the events and circumstances that will unfold in the story. Omega is the last letter of the Greek alphabet, and Alpha is the first. It is no coincidence that the series starts with Alpha and ends with Omega. Beginning and end. And that doesn’t mean the series ends with OMEGA. It means things as series readers know it will change significantly…you’ll see what I mean. GRAB A COPY OF OMEGA TODAY!
OMEGA: A Black Flagged Thriller (Book 5)
“A joint U.S.- Russian Special Forces raid against a hidden laboratory yields an alarming discovery. Anatoly Reznikov, the deranged bioweapons scientist stolen from U.S. custody a few years earlier, vanished minutes before the attack—taking his deadly work with him.
In the United States, Beltway power brokers grapple with True America’s surprise presidential win, finding the new administration to be anything but easy to work with. Karl Berg, demoted within the CIA due to the sudden shift in agency leadership, seeks to stay out of trouble, and retire quietly—a task he finds impossible when news of Reznikov’s near-capture unofficially reaches his desk.
Oblivious to the growing threats domestic and abroad, Daniel and Jessica Petrovich finalize their plan to abandon the “Black Flag” business for good. An unforeseen, last minute personal trip to the United States drags them into an unfolding plot, based in the rotten heart of Washington D.C.
A plot connected to everyone and everything the Petrovich’s have touched. A diabolical conspiracy nobody saw coming—AND ONLY ONE GROUP CAN STOP.”
Update: Due to a small mistake, the deal for The Perseid Collapse books will commence in the UK on Nov 11. I can’t offer the discount on The Jakarta Pandemic in the UK at this time.
Because a relaxing book about SOCIETAL COLLAPSE is just what the doctor ordered after this election. I don’t know about you, but I’m SO GLAD it’s over.
ALL OF MY POST-APOCALYPTIC BOOKS ARE DEEPLY DISCOUNTED FOR A LIMITED TIME.
—You can grab THE JAKARTA PANDEMIC for FREE if you’re a member of Amazon Prime or Kindle Unlimited, if not, it’s half price at $2.99. CLICK HERE FOR THE JAKARTA PANDEMIC.
I know you’re going to love Fractured State, and the rest of the books to come. The series promises to be incredible. I just delivered the second book to my publisher, Thomas and Mercer, and they’re busy tearing it apart—in a good way.
Check out Thomas and Mercer’s series description for a taste of the entire series. This paragraph absolutely captures the essence of what I set out to accomplish…almost like mind reading!
“Steven Konkoly’s Fractured State series charts a nightmarish near-future vision of America, ravaged by environmental devastation and teetering on the brink of political collapse. When average family man Nathan Fisher unwittingly learns of a terrifying conspiracy at the highest levels of power, he and his family must run for their lives, pursued by ruthless killers and aided by a resourceful Marine with a mysterious agenda of his own. Unrelenting suspense; rich, relatable characters; and a vividly imagined, all-too-believable future world of high technology and low-down violence: welcome to Fractured State.”
Thank you for checking out the series. Don’t forget to check out some of my earlier “behind the scenes” of Fractured State posts!
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES HAS RADICALLY CHANGED BY 2035
THE FRACTURED STATE series sweeps you through this vast, twisted landscape with reluctant hero, Nathan Fisher, as he fights against all odds to keep his family alive.
Building the greater world surroundingTHE FRACTURED STATE SERIES was a serious blast, but inventing the details of a near-future world was the proverbial “icing on the cake.” This is the kind of stuff I live for as a writer, and Fractured State was a fertile playground for these details. That said, it wasn’t easy.
Set 20 years in the future, I found myself walking a thin line between advancing technology far enough to create a “wow factor” and keeping it familiar enough to the reader. The last thing I wanted to do was create a new vocabulary for readers.
Here’s a fantastic example of that struggle, with a slightly disappointing ending. What do you call a cell phone/smart phone 20 years from now? The answer isn’t simple, or is it? I got a crazy idea during the developmental edit, based on a suggestion from my developmental editor (I blame David!), to replace every instance of smartphone with the term LINK. We’d discussed the technology upgrades evident in the manuscript and agreed that the device served as more of a communications link, but we couldn’t call it a COMLINK. That term had been coined by the Star Wars franchise years ago, and it didn’t sound right, anyway.
But what about LINK? That’s simple, catchy…hey, 20 years from now, people might be looking back at Fractured State and saying, Steven Konkoly used the term first, now everyone calls their phone a LINK. Communications companies will be paying me billions to license the term…it sounded fantastic, until it didn’t. Actually, it was my editor at Thomas and Mercer that essentially said something to the effect of, “I don’t know. It’s cool and all, but forcing readers to use the word LINK instead of phone throughout the story might get a little annoying.” Too kitschy, so I dropped LINK and went back to phone or satphone. Lesson learned. The device had more bells and whistles, but it essentially did the same thing it does today…let’s you talk to people. Why complicate matters?
But one creative disappointment can’t ruin the creative process for me. NOT EVEN CLOSE. That was ONE device out of hundreds used in the novel, and I had a ton of fun with the rest. Too much fun, probably.
If you’ve read any of my books, you probably can guess that I like weapons. From knives to attack helicopters, I don’t shy away from the details, and I like my characters to make the best use of the weaponry available to them. Fractured State gave me the unique opportunity to take systems currently in development, and imagine them in widespread use 20 years from now. Every firearm is more compact and versatile, ammunition is far more lethal, heavy duty weapons systems normally employed by armies are now available to mercenary groups, and the effectiveness of personal protective equipment has increased to counter this new lethality. Take a look at the following links, along with a brief explanation of how I chose to employ that technology in Fractured State.
Guided sniper munitions – Used by assassins in a coordinated attack against a politician at his reinforced mansion. The effect is rather gruesome, as you can imagine.
Color night vision technology – I call it synthetic daylight…heard it here first! This actually presented a bit of a challenge, since describing what the characters see through these goggles is no different than what they’d see in the daylight. At times, my developmental editor couldn’t remember if it was night or day. To remedy this, I added some additional features to the goggle’s display, which measured light intensity and could tell the wearer how dark it was outside.
Liquid gel body armor – This has so much promise for the future in my opinion. Form fitting and reactive, liquid gel body armor can potentially stop any type of munition, evenly spreading the brunt force of the impact to reduce internal injuries commonly seen with solid plate armor.
Dragonskin armor – Recently rejected by the U.S. Army, I see a future for this type of armor. Lighter, shape conforming and effective against armor piercing ammunition…I could see this as standard issue.
Rifle launched missiles – I don’t actually use these in the books, but damn if this isn’t cool.
Smart grenade launchers – I take this one step further, and apply the same range finding automation to an automatic grenade launcher system. The effects are spectacularly devastating…and messy of course.
Hand launched surveillance drones – Nothing new about the Raven, except the newer versions can fly longer and transmit more data. Putting two of these in the air, one of the teams in the book finds a “needle in a haystack.”
See through wall radar and imaging devices– Can you imagine looking at a 3-Dimensional schematic of a building and seeing a live image of everyone inside? It’s not really possible today, but in 2035…
Missile firing drones – Over U.S. airspace? You bet, especially when operated by Cerberus International…and to make matters worse, the drones are mostly undetectable.
Active or adaptive camouflage – Can you turn a vehicle invisible? With enough money and 20 years of research and development. Why not?
Desalination plants – Reality today, and critical to survival in a drought parched future.
This is a very short list of some of the types of technology upgrades found in Fractured State, and this is just the tip of the iceberg. Everything is slightly reimagined in this series, from sinks that recycle water for rinsing to mandatory GPS tracking systems installed on every vehicle to measure fuel efficiency and restrict movement. Life has changed…it’s up to the reader to decide if the change is for better or worse.
With the release of FRACTURED STATE less than a month away, I thought I’d give readers and fans a look behind the scenes at the creation of the near future, dystopian world supporting the story. As most of you know, I spend a considerable amount of time envisioning and creating the worlds behind my fiction. The process is time consuming, and if left unchecked, can take on a life of its own. I know this from experience. When I started to create the world for my first novel, The Jakarta Pandemic, I reached a point, long into the early stages of development, where I asked myself: “When are you going to actually start writing the story?” I didn’t have an answer, which in itself was my answer. It was time to quit researching the world, describing characters on notepads, creating maps, developing timelines—AND TIME TO GET DOWN TO BUSINESS. I had spent months world building, when I could and should have been writing.
With that lesson SORT OF learned—a few times, I’ve developed a rough world-building process that gets me started and keeps me on the right track.
1.) Creating a world to support a series requires me to create a ALTERNATE HISTORY, or in the case of Fractured State, a FUTURE set 20 years from today. Either way, I start out with a TIMELINE OF EVENTS. This is outside of the story plot. For the Fractured State series, I started in 2016 and envisioned the world, national, state and personal-level events that would land the reader on page one. As you can see, this sheet has endured coffee and beer stains, many on-the-fly changes and an accidental “throw away” since I created it in early 2015. It rarely leaves my side while I’m writing.
2.) For the kind of deep background and expansive geographical reach involved in writing a series like Fractured State, I find the use of MAPS to be invaluable. I create them throughout the entire process, starting with big picture world building maps down to individual scene orientation maps. Every complex, action oriented scene likely originated with a sketch.
First map created
Map of California’s present and future energy sites
Motel scene in Rogue State (Book 2)…little spoiler.
3.) Whether based in the past, present or future, I also create lists and descriptions of the organizations involved in the story. Past and present is easy…a few clicks on Google and you have a nice organizational chart of the CIA. Future requires a little more work. In Fractured State, I envisioned San Diego County as an entity that effectively absorbed every municipality throughout the current county, providing town administration, resource management, leadership and police functions for the entire geography. San Diego County Police Department (SDCPD) officers patrol the streets of Chula Vista, CA, south of San Diego, just he same as the streets of Carlsbad, CA—40 miles away.
In Fractured State, Nathan Fisher, the story’s main character, works as a water reclamation engineer at the San Diego Water Reclamation Authority, an entity that does not exist today. Since water reclamation is a critical part of Californian’s lives in my story, I gave it an organization separate, but subordinate to the existing Water Authority. Of course, in the resource stressed world of Fractured State, both authorities serve under the San Diego County Resource Authority. Yeah, I have fun with this stuff. Sorry to put you to sleep!
4.) Throughout the creation of the TIMELINE, MAPS and boring ORGANIZATIONS, I’m constantly researching topics related to the big picture to generate new ideas, validate previously envisioned plot points or expand the story.
For Fractured State, I spent a lot of time studying WATER sources in California, the rest of the southwest and the Great Plains. While the events in my story are purely fictional, the historic, ongoing drought in California and the U.S. Southwest is REAL. Frighteningly real. California’s current drought started me on the path to writing this series. The more I researched, the more I knew I had the background for an incredible story. What if the drought continued for another 20 years like many climatologists agree is possible? AND what if the effects of the drought were intensified by corrupt group of greedy industrialists and enforced by a ruthless mercenary army on their payroll? Secession? Mayhem? All of the above.
Check out some of the original bookmarked links that I used to get a feel for the drought issues facing California and the nation. It’s scary stuff. All of it. I just listed them as LINK. Click on any or all to give yourself a fright.
2015 was kind of a slow writing year for me. I have a deadline to meet at the end of February, and more books to write after that. The more I write, the more you get to read. I plan to accomplish this by…
SURFING THE INTERNET LESS
Sorry, but this is a polite way of saying “spend less time on social media.” I’m not going away, but every word I type on Facebook is one word taken away from my work in progress. Added up (and it ADDS UP!), this forces me to work longer days to meet deadlines, and ultimately takes time away from…
SPENDING MORE TIME WITH FAMILY
There’s no reason for me to be writing during family time on weekends. A few hours in the morning by choice is still fine. I like to write every day, even if just for an hour or two, and I can do that in the early morning hours when most of the house is asleep. But spending most of the weekend days writing to meet an easily achievable deadline is not healthy or fair to the most important parts of my life. Same goes for weekday evenings. Cutting out social media related event time is one way to help with this, the other is…
DEVELOP A BETTER SCHEDULE
The cross country move threw what I considered a tight schedule WAY off track. In military terms, it did not survive first contact with the enemy. No more of that. The first thing I’m going to do every morning is stretch out with the 5 Tibetans (Hugh Howey introduced me to these—check out the video), fix a coffee, and spend an hour walking and WRITING on THIS CONTRAPTION! I’ll be up early enough to do all of this and hang out with the kids before they head to school. Then it’s off to the gym or out for a run. I plan to spend to be at my other desk by 9AM. I’ll probably see the treadmill again before the end of the day whistle blows between 4-5PM. If I hit 3K words before 4-5PM, I’M DONE.
EXERCISE MORE
My new routine will ensure that I exercise more. The concept of regular exercise took a vacation in 2015. My goal for the year is to be in as good or better shape than Alex Fletcher from my Perseid Collapse Series. That may sound kind of strange, but I have a reason for this goal. I write a lot of post-apocalyptic, prepper-related fiction where characters are constantly fighting for their lives. It’s over the top stuff for sure, but it really drives home an important point. What’s the point of readiness and prepping, even for a minor emergency, if you’re too out of shape to execute your plan?
I chose Alex Fletcher, because he wasn’t a physical super star. He could run 4-5 miles at a decent pace, carry a pack on an extended hike, swim several hundred yards against a mild current and sprint around shooting at the bad guys for a few minutes without vomiting. That’s all I’m looking for. And I wouldn’t mind NOT looking like a tub of $#@! in vacation photos. The lens doesn’t lie! While more exercise will help, shedding the FAT weight equivalent to a rucksack helps even more. For that, I plan to…
EAT HEALTHIER AND EAT LESS
More on this later. The food plan doesn’t start until January 5….and I have BEER waiting in the fridge.
Note: I talk numbers later in this post, lots of numbers, so bear with the more didactic start to my year end post.
I DON’T DO PREDICTIONS
There’s nothing wrong with predictions, I just think other authors tackle the subject better. Why reinvent the wheel, so to speak. Take a moment to read Russell Blake’s End of an Era and Joe Konrath’s New Years Resolution for Writers. Each author takes a different approach, but you’ll notice a common theme at the core of each post. Indie authors need to write, AND WRITE A LOT, to be successful. Not exactly rocket science, but it’s worth repeating. I’m going to make a small tweak to that message, which I think is critical to success.
WRITE WHAT YOU ENJOY WRITING—A LOT. Once again, no atoms have been split so far, but this is an important distinction, and part of the overall theme of this post. You can probably guess why.
The past two to three years has been tumultuous for both the indie and traditional publishing industry. Authors have seen ups and downs, like waves, and panic has ensued when they starts the downward journey into the trough. Of course, the waves come in different sizes for each author, and in some cases, the ride down is indeed scary—just like the ride up a massive wave of sales can be exhilarating. Kristine Kathryn Rusch does a far better job describing the wave metaphor in one her most memorable 2015 posts—The Hard Part.
HERE’S THE THING. Storms always pass, leaving mostly calm seas.
You need to build a career strong and stable enough to weather these storms (real and perceived)—so you’re still around when the winds die down and the clouds part.
What’s worked for me? You’ll be glad you didn’t pay for this. Ready? In keeping with the nautical theme:
KEEP A STEADY HAND ON THE HELM—WRITE WHAT YOU WANT TO WRITE
KEEP AN EYE ON THE HORIZON—PLAN FOR THE LONG HAUL
ADVERTISE SMARTLY AND FREQUENTLY—I know, that’s not a nautical term.
Feel let down? You’re not alone. I felt the same way when I dug into what has brought me the most success over the past five years. No tricks or gimmicks. This is it! And this is why I don’t do predictions. I don’t care what’s predicted for the next six month or year. Predictions have never changed the CORE of my approach. They’re little more than distractions. That’s not to say I ignore trends or pass on sudden opportunities. I just make sure they fit into one of the CORE tenets of my approach.
And I’m not claiming this was my master strategy all along.Far from it. It somehow naturally developed, likely while I was juggling a day job and publishing two to three books a year. I didn’t have time for distractions. I spent 95% of my available time WRITING and the rest developing long-term GOALS. Many of those goals seemed unattainable and SO far away at the time. Like a dream—but I saw the importance of pursuing them, regardless, in order to build a CAREER that could smash through waves. READ MY 2014 POST ON DIVERSIFICATION to learn more about these strategies.
I still have a long way to go, but based on 2015 numbers, I feel good about my strategy.
WHAT HAVE I DONE IN 2015?
–I released a grand total of one 75K word book and one 25K word novella (in Russell Blake’s Kindle World). Not exactly my most prolific publishing year. I typically release about three times this amount.
–I wrote and delivered Fractured State (105K words) toThomas and Mercer. Being the first book in a new series, I spent a considerable amount of time building the Fractured State world before writing in it. A sacrifice I was willing to make in order to realize the long term goal of publishing with Thomas and Mercer. More on that later.
–I launched The Perseid Collapse Series Kindle World, which took an extraordinary amount of time and energy to coordinate. WELL WORTH THE EFFORT on many fronts. The world has attracted top notch authors across several genres. I couldn’t be happier or more humbled to be a part of it. Thank you to every author involved, and to Sean F. at Kindle Worlds for believing in The Perseid Collapse. To date, 25 novellas wait to be read by fans of post-apocalyptic and thriller fiction, with more on the way.
–I moved from Maine to Indiana. Don’t ask. Needless to say, this was the BIGGEST, unavoidable distraction of the year, and likely cost me the writing and release of a book. From March through the end of June, it was a non-stop event.
At this point, you’re probably thinking that I had a mediocre sales year. We all know the formula for success, right? Publish, publish, and publish again! While there’s certainly truth to this. I’m going to show you some surprising numbers, based on a very modest publishing year by my standards.
THE NUMBERS
-Overall income is UP 61.5% over 2014. Remember, 2014 was UP 57% over 2013. NOT A BAD YEAR AT ALL, considering my modest production schedule.
–Ebook sales are up 20% (units sold increased by 25%), not including Kindle Worlds or Kindle Unlimited numbers.
–Paper is down by 25%, but this has never been a significant income area.
–Audio unit numbers are down 6.5%, but sales are up 37%. Head scratcher, but deeper analysis shows that the royalty escalator clause (no longer offered) kicked in big time this year for The Perseid Collapse books, and I’m getting paid more per audiobook. I can’t stress the importance of audiobooks to building a strong career. Audiobooks account for 15% of my total business, and they seem less susceptible to some of the sales cycle storms that occasionally strike. Do some research here. It’s not a guarantee of quick income, but it is a viable long term strategy. It has paid off handsomely for me in both genres, more so in the post-apocalyptic books. Invest in audiobooks—NOW!
–Kindle Unlimited. You’re either going to love this part or hate it. For me, it’s a love story. Let’s start at the beginning. All of my titles are in Kindle Select, but it hasn’t always been this way. My Black Flagged Series had spent nearly two years out of select, gaining LITTLE traction in the wider world of ebooks. When I finished the series in 2013 (4 books over two years), I took the series wide after enjoying enough success with the books to quit my day job (the books sold well to say the least). Good thing I had a hot post-apocalyptic series in the works, because going WIDE didn’t work. Not even BookBub could not ignite a steady income stream outside of Amazon. It took me until June of 2015, right before the advent of KU 2.0, to throw it all back into Kindle Select. Good timing. KU 2.0 boosted income across all of my book.
Units borrowed increased 132% over 2014. Close to 25K units total. After July, I divided pages read by the KENPC calculation for each novel to arrive at unit numbers since the program was now measured by pages read. For 2015, sales through KU increased by 158%, and much of that came from the second half of the year under KU 2.0. The Black Flagged franchise was a big part of that.
–Kindle Worlds. It’s hard to compare this from year to year, since 2014 was my first year publishing on Amazon’s fan fanfiction platform. Here are the raw numbers. Between three novellas and an omnibus, I’ve sold close to 9,000 units in Blake Crouch’s Wayward Pines Kindle World. I had a big surge in sales when Wayward Pines hit Fox Network as a mini-series. That was the business side of why I wrote the novellas in 2014. I mostly wrote them because I loved the series and can’t get enough of Blake’s work. That said, a little looking ahead made it a no brainer decision to take time away from The Perseid Collapse series to indulge in Wayward Pines. I also used some time in 2015 to write a novella for Russell Blake’s JET Kindle World, adding another 1,500 units to the Kindle Worlds mix.
–ADVANCES made up 10% of my income in 2015. I can’t get into specifics, but 2015 was the first year I was ever paid an advance. I like the concept, and hope to that percentage increase.
–Foreign Translation of The Jakarta Pandemic? Let’s just say that German readers weren’t ready for an intense pandemic survival story based around an all-American in New England. Who could have guessed? I was pushing for the translation of my international espionage thriller series. I made money, but thankfully did not invest any of my own capital.
HOW DID I DO THIS?
–I aggressively advertised multiple books in both series. This is listed first, because it had the biggest impact—and it’s a bit complicated to pile onto this post (another will follow). In a nutshell, it’s no secret that BOOKBUB is a powerful advertising and book marketing tool…depending upon how you use it. I use it to generate buy through for an entire series and expand readership. A short and long term goal. I don’t mind giving away free books to meet that end.
–I experimented with Facebook ads. I’m not going to lie to you. I haven’t seen uber success selling books directly through Facebook, though like any hardcore gambler, I’m convinced my luck is about to take a turn for the better with the next ad. Always experimenting. With that said, I have seen considerable success growing my mailing list with targeted Facebook ads.
–I grew my mailing list from around 1,000 to 9,000 (not all through Facebook!). They bought a lot of books, full price and at special discounts. My goal for early 2016 is to better engage this list and turn it into a powerful marketing and promotional tool to launch books. Sounds all business-like. Let me rephrase this. I want everyone on the list to look forward to my updates and special offers, especially the ones announcing a book launch.
–I resisted the temptation to write another purely post-apocalyptic series, and instead, created the story I’ve been dying to write. Fractured State. No genre is a sure thing, but post-apocalyptic books sell. I know from experience, which is why this was a hard decision to make. I had my reasons. I made some contacts at Thomas and Mercerin 2014, with the hopes that they sign me in 2015. I’ve had my eye on this goal since 2013, when I became a full time writer, knowing that they don’t publish post-apocalyptic novels. By the time my talks with the editorial staff at Thomas and Mercer blossomed, I was in a position to present a full series synopsis and 10K words of the first novel in the series. Fractured State will be published by Thomas and Mercer, in May 2016, followed the second book in January 2017. I have no doubt this decision will make 2016 my most successful year ever.
–I diversified in 2014.Every time one of my book titles rose in Amazon rank during a promotion, buyers, borrowers and audiobook listeners alike were drawn to the commotion—and all of my books. Sales across all platforms increased, contributing heavily to the bottom line.
–I had a little help from my friends. I certainly didn’t do this alone. I can’t stress enough the importance of community for writers. We all sit behind desks most of the day, by ourselves, and there is only so much you can do to get the word out about your books. I love helping other authors, and find that I’m not alone in that feeling. THANK YOU to everyone that helped. This includes writers and READERS!
–Those readers keep buying my books! And to that, I am eternally grateful.
SHALL I END HERE? WHAT ELSE CAN I SAY?
2016?
-I shall write the books I want to write. As many as I can. It’s worked for me so far.
-I shall advertise aggressively.
-I shall stay in Kindle Select, even if the seas look rough.
-I will continue to look as far ahead as possible and steadily build the sturdiest ship for those waters.
International man of mystery, ex-pat, author and father: Alex Shaw
The Perseid Collapse Kindle World Interview series is back, and there’s no better author to mark its return than Alex Shaw. A U.K. native and international business consultant, Alex is uniquely suited to writing the world-spanning thrillers offered in his Aidan Snow novels—he’s either resided in or extensively visited most of the locations detailed in books. I can neither confirm nor deny whether he’s been to Maine, the setting for Black Line, his Kindle Worlds novella, but it wouldn’t surprise me to learn that his travels have brought him to the Maine coast. Without further delay, let’s have a chat with Sir Alex Shaw. I couldn’t resist that.
How did you link Black Line to The Perseid Collapse Kindle World? Is there any crossover or meetings between your characters and any of the original characters?
I linked my story by having it happen at the same time as the Perseid Collapse, but futher up the coast in Camden. None of the original characters appear in the first novella for the simple reason that I wanted to have as much freedom as possible with the story and characters.
And I presume you’ll deny colluding with Murray McDonald (another infamous denizen of the U.K.) to single handedly destroy another American city? I’m noticing a trend with the U.K. authors. 😉
I think you’ve capitalized on a unique feature of The Perseid Collapse Kindle World, by keeping the original characters out of your story. Stories can center on the collapse, and not my characters or specific events. This has the added benefit of widening the scope of writers that will feel comfortable writing in the world. The Perseid Collapse World isn’t reserved for post-apocalyptic writers.
That’s what attracted me to the concept. My story is very much a thriller, as this is what I generally write, and am most comfortable with.
As you know, I have a special place in my heart for covert operations thrillers—another reason I was “thrilled” to hear you were interested in writing for the world.
What major theme comes across the clearest in your story? Is this a theme found consistently in your other works?
The themes of Russian aggression and terrorism are present in my novels, which are partly set in Ukraine (Cold Blood, Cold Black and Cold East). These two themes are also present in Black Line, however the terrorism now emanates from China.
I heard a rumor that the Russians might be involved Black Line too. Sorry, small spoiler.
Let’s talk about your main character for a minute. I think readers will like Jack Tate. What can you tell us about him?
Jack Tate is a former member of the Special Air Service (SAS), who has been seconded to a new unit within the British Intelligence Service (SIS). He has been posted to the US, and is on vacation before starting his new role. I think readers will like Tate, as he sees the US from a foreigner’s point of view, and is not as jaded by any political, class or racial views. He is almost like one of King Arthur’s nights in his quest to protect the innocent, but he doesn’t ride a horse.
Are you saying Americans have strong views on politics? I’m not sure where you got that idea? 😉 Tate is a fantastic character. I particularly appreciate his no nonsense approach and response to American customs and procedures. It’s a fascinating view through a unique set of eyes.
I couldn’t help notice that you like to write about SAS operatives—a trend that extends through your other novels. I’m sure readers that enjoy Black Line will want to know about your core series.
I wrote a series of thrillers with an ex-SAS character Aidan Snow: Cold Blood, Cold Black and Cold East. These deal more with Islamic terror and Russian aggression in Europe and the Middle East. In Black Line, Jack Tate is a way for me to explore what would happen if a character with the same training as Aidan Snow found himself in the US during a catastrophic, EMP induced collapse. Despite the similarity in character backgrounds, Tate is significantly different than Aidan Snow.
Now I’m very intrigued. Maine has hosted its share of vampires in fiction. Most notably Stephen King’s novel, Salem’s Lot. This may sound crazy, but I think you could have brought your special operations vampires to Maine, and felt right at home. It would have been a Perseid Collapse first…not that I’m pressuring you. 😉
Speaking of pressure as a writer, most authors contributing to the The Perseid Collapse Kindle World reported that they nearly doubled their normal writing output. Did you experience something similar?
I found Black Line faster to write than my novels, as the pace was faster and the story required less research. Jack Tate is a tourist, and like me, he is seeing things for the first time.
Let’s shift to your background. Would you share some of your story about becoming a writer?
When I had the idea to start writing I was living in Ukraine and reading a lot of SAS thriller genre books, what these showed me was that although the authors, many former SAS members, knew their military and operational stuff, they did not know much about some of the locations they were using. One book mentioned Ukraine, briefly. As no one else was writing about Ukraine (the largest European country) I decided that I would.
It took me 12 years to finish my first novel, I was writing on and off, and sometimes the off lasted a year at a time. I, like all aspiring writers, didn’t know if I could write so wanted to prove to myself that I could. I then took a year trying to get an agent or publisher and failed, before discovering CreateSpace and later KDP. When Kindle launched in the UK I suddenly started to sell quite a few copies. It wasn’t until five years later that, after having written two more books and some novellas, that I decided to approach publishers again. I approached five and got two offers. I now have a contract with Endeavour Press to publish my first three novels.
That’s a fantastic success story. The world of writing and publishing has certainly changed, and you appear to embody the best of those changes. Do you have a background related to your writing? Interests?
I lived in Ukraine, and still visit when I can (my wife’s side of the family are in Kyiv), which is why I write about the place and the life of ex-pats, as I used to be one. I travelled extensively with my work in the past, so I generally try to write about the places I’ve been and the people I’ve met. This is most noticeable in my second novel, Cold Black, when I write about Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Moscow and Kyiv. I wasn’t in the military or the Secret Intelligence Service, but have friends who have been in both, who are a great help to me. I’m interested in world affairs, which probably is apparent in my writing…and I tend to attempt to be funny.
I’d say your attempts at humor hit the mark. Conversing back and forth with you is always a pleasure.
This may seem like a silly question to you, but your answer will be informative for American readers. Are you a prepper or homesteader? How did you become interested in post-apocalyptic fiction?
We don’t tend to have preppers or homesteaders in the UK, but I do have a few spare tins in the cupboard. When I was kid I was fascinated by a fact I heard (it may have been nonsense) that in Sweden all new houses had to be built with nuclear fall-out shelters underneath. My Nan had an old WW2 underground shelter in her back garden which had been filled in and I used to daydream about what it would be like to use it. I suppose the Walking Dead really rekindled my interest in post-apocalyptic fiction but what also annoyed me (and made me want to write for the Perseid Collapse Kindle World) was that they only showed a very small part of the picture in the US. I wanted to know what happened in the UK, or in the Caribbean or on a military submarine base or in the Artic. Could, would and did it also happen there?
I think the Cold War and the nuclear threat stoked the post-apocalyptic fires around the world…not to mention The Walking Dead. Would it be fair to say that you still see nuclear weapons as the most likely threat today?
At the moment I think the biggest threat to world stability is the possibility of an idiot detonating a nuclear weapon. Be it the Islamic State, Putin or the fat baby in charge of North Korea.
The skinny, underfed Generals surrounding Kim Jong Un wouldn’t agree with you. In their eyes, he’s svelte!
What are you working on next, aside from a vampire installment to The Perseid Collapse Series World?
My third Aidan Snow novel, COLD EAST, was published a few weeks ago. It follows the storyline of a missing suitcase nuke that has been found by al-Qaeda. But being a thriller, it’s not that simple. The question quickly becomes: who really has the nuke and what is the target?
Ah, the good ole’ days of twists and turns. I wrote more of those than I care to admit in the Black Flagged books.
Beyond my latest release, I have three works in progress, which will hopefully appear later in the year. One is my second military vampire novel, the second is a crime novel and the third is an offshoot of the Aidan Snow books.
Sounds like you’ll be busier than ever this year, which is a good feeling!
Check out Alex Shaw’s website at http://www.alexwshaw.com, where you can find news and links to all of his works.
Of course, don’t forget to check out Black Line, Alex’s novella for The Perseid Collapse Series Kindle World.
Two contributing authors to The Perseid Collapse Series Kindle World talk about the female lead roles they created for the post-apocalyptic world that unfolds in the series.
“Steve Konkoly’s The Perseid Collapse Kindle World launched in February 2015 with nine novellas. Two of those original Perseid Collapse novellas had female lead characters: The Borealis Incident by Tim Queeney and Deception on Durham Road by A.R. Shaw. In this joint blog post, A.R. Shaw and I talk about those female characters and how they fit in The Perseid Collapse world and the even right here in the real world.
Tim Queeney: Going back even just a few decades, it’s hard to imagine a female deputy commander of a U. S. Air Force Base. Yet today, writing a woman lead character like Lt. Colonel Dana Wright in my Perseid Collapse novella, The Borealis Incident, is not something that requires a great leap of faith from readers. Woman have made huge strides in the military, with female pilots and ship drivers not an unusual occurrence. The biggest issue Dana has to face in Borealis is that the base security officer doesn’t want her driving alone to the missile warning radar site 13 miles across the Greenland tundra from the base itself. Perhaps he’s concerned because Dana is a woman, but maybe he’d be just as uneasy with the practice if the deputy commander was a man.
A.R. Shaw’s Deception on Durham Road also has a female lead, Jamie Michaud. But instead of a military officer, Jaime is a mom working to protect her two daughters…”
Instead of TIDE, a better word is WAVE, since The Perseid Collapse Series Kindle Worlds launch has been been an incredible tsunami (pun intended) of co-promotion, cooperation and buzz surrounding all of the novellas in the series. I couldn’t be happier with the level of participation, encouragement and sharing by all of the authors involved…not to mention the readers and fans that have multiplied our efforts. The whole thing has been awe-inspiring.
One of my sincerest hopes from the start, was that The Perseid Collapse Series Kindle World would Lift All Boats, helping to cross-expose readerships. My readers would check out other authors’ novellas and novels…their readers would check out mine. I know this has been happening, but the extent of the impact didn’t sink in until recently. I received a message from Sean T. Smith, author of the novella Sunshine Patriots and The Wrath Series, which blew me away.
Rather than recap what Sean relayed, I’m going to turn this into a guest post. Take it away, Sean!
“When Steven Konkoly invited me to write a novella for his newly minted PERSEID COLLAPSE Kindle World, I jumped at the chance. I didn’t know much about Kindle Worlds, but I figured that since Steven was writing killer books in a similar vein to what I write and actually selling lots of them, it was a no-brainer.
My first novel, OBJECTS OF WRATH was published by Permuted Press last year, and I had absurd expectations about what my sales were going to be like. The novel is the first in a trilogy, and the second book released in August of 2014. The final book came out on February 2, the same day as the PERSEID COLLAPSE world launched.
My publisher is primarily known for zombie books, although that’s something which has been slowly changing. But my books aren’t horror in any way, and I struggled to find readers. I’ve had good reviews, but not nearly enough of them. It was a let-down for me, watching the slow slide into oblivion that my books were taking.
But…
After the launch of the PERSEID COLLAPSE Kindle World, several things happened. First, I got to see a nice Amazon ranking for the first time; SUNSHINE PATRIOTS, the novella I wrote for Steve, made it up to number three in Kindle Worlds for thrillers and mysteries, and it’s still at number 9 last I checked for top-rated thriller/mysteries.
The other authors, Bobby, Steven, and AR Shaw in particular, did a fantastic job at cross promotion, all across social media. Steven blogged and tweeted to his fan base, and the other authors did the same. I tried to pitch in, but my reach is still rather limited. Over the period of the last month and a half, I’ve seen my blog outreach increase, my Twitter following grow, and my sales rank spike dramatically. And it didn’t just go up for SUNSHINE PATRIOTS, all of my books saw nice jumps.
The increase in sales for my other novels led to my first book being approved for a Book Bub promotion, which is happening today and tomorrow. I should see another spike in sales beyond what I’ve already experienced, and find new readers. In particular, I think my books are getting in front of the RIGHT readers for the first time, and that’s a vital thing for an emerging author.
Not to share my dirty laundry, but here’s a screen shot from this morning. The long, consistent tail over the last month is a direct result of participating in the PERSEID COLLAPSE Kindle World. Obviously, I’d like to see my author rank and my sales get a whole lot better, but the difference thus far has been dramatic.”
This makes me smile. Congratulations, Sean. I can’t wait to read the continuation of The Sunshine Patriots series.
When most readers think of modern survivalist/prepper fiction, A. American’s Survivalist Series is at the very top of their list. I’m honored and excited to have such a brand name in the genre join the team of writers contributing to The Perseid Collapse Series world.
A. American got his start by posting the first story in his Survivalist series on a forum, where it exploded with popularity. Before long, he’d signed a series deal with Penguin Group…the rest is history. His novella for the Perseid Collapse Series signals his return to self-publishing, where he plans to hang his hat for now. I have no doubt he will find the change refreshing and liberating. Best of all, readers will get his books quicker, and from what I’ve read, they’re in for a real treat.
Angery is the real deal, and it shines in his work. He truly talks the talk and walks the walk so to say…makes me feel like a personal readiness weekend warrior. While you wait for his novella, please check out the Survivalist Series and his comprehensive website, Angery American News. There’s a ton of good stuff in both.
Bestselling thriller writer and Highland warrior: Murray McDonald
Murray McDonald is a long time friend in the grand scheme of my writing career. Pretty much from the very start. We both rose through the Indie ranks with covert operations/political thrillers, sharing strategies, comparing story ideas and having some good laughs along the way. He’s been unflaggingly supportive of my writing, and didn’t hesitate to offer a story for The Perseid Collapse Series Kindle World.
As a native Scot, and a denizen of the U.K., I didn’t expect Murray to write a story about Doomsday Preppers surviving the Perseid Collapse “event.” Prepping hasn’t caught fire in the U.K., like it has in the U.S., and it’s not for a lack of post-apocalyptic imagination or a spirit of rugged individualism. Murray offers a bit of hilarious insight into WHY, a little later. I had something else in mind for his story, and so did Murray! As a matter of fact, he far exceeded my hopes and expectations with the story he pursued, helping to answer one of the primary questions readers posed about the series. Obviously, he had some of the same questions.
Without further delay, let’s hear it straight from Murray.
Being the questioning type, I wondered how the Chinese managed to pull off the attack, and how could the US have been blind sided. A quick call to Steve revealed we had roughly the same idea as to how they would have done it, although most definitely from a fictional sense!
Murray is being kind here. He essentially confirmed that I had taken some liberties with the story’s initial set up. I think he more accurately called it “bullshitting.” Sorry. Had to set the record straight. 😉 Your story?
Yes. My story therefore centers around the final 24 hours before the event and the massive operation to ensure that Red Dragon succeeds.
For those that don’t know, Red Dragon is the multifaceted operation led by the Chinese that is responsible for The Perseid Collapse.
The Perseid Collapse Series obviously falls under the post-apocalyptic genre, but it also delves into the technothriller realm. I hear you’ve come up with a new genre to describe ROCKLAND.
Technoprepper, I more or less just made that up. I wonder if it will catch on?
I think you’ve just redefined a thriving subsection of post-apocalyptic writing. I hope to see this category on Amazon shortly. 😉
One of your strengths as a writer is character development. Tell us a little about your main character. What will readers like about him or her.
There are a few, the goodie, the Police Chief, a large powerful guy who lost his wife during the craziness of the pandemic and is struggling to have a relationship with his son because of it. He also is convinced another event will happen and has prepared his town to make up for his previous failings during the pandemic in DC. The baddie, Special Agent Eva Young, is a calm, beautiful—cold hearted killer. Her job is to make sure the Chief’s son is killed.
Both characters make quite a splash in your novella, particularly Special Agent Eva Young. She really embodies some of the sinister characters you present in your other work. Ruthless, brutal and single focused. She leaves one hell of a trail of dead bodies in her path.
Fans of your books will absolutely love Rockland. This is classic Murray McDonald. For those not familiar with your work, how would you describe your stories?
I try to write books I’d love to read myself. Plenty of action with a twist and turn here and there that once you see it you kick yourself as the clues were there. I also take a view on storylines that pretty much anything is possible, when it comes to fiction I sometimes consider the things that have happened in the past. For example, had I written in the 1930’s (and maybe even early 40’s!) of a fascist state that would commit the holocaust that would kill 6,000,000 Jews and another 4 million+ ethnic or religious peoples in death factories, it would have been slammed as unbelievable, inconceivable in the modern world, as they viewed it then. Even recently, Rwanda, almost 1,000,000 people slaughtered in 100 days, hard to believe but that happened only 20 years ago. There are many more examples, as I’m sure you know. Sometimes as strange and ridiculous we make our fiction, if we look back to the past, we don’t even come close to how ridiculous reality can become.
Whether fiction imitates reality, or the other way around, is often difficult to distinguish. Let’s just hope that none of our plots materialize in the real world. I don’t think the people are ready!
You’re another one of those authors that picked up a pen (or keyboard) later in life and started writing stories. No Master of Fine Arts and twenty years of querying agents. How did this all come about?
My son couldn’t find anything to read when he was fourteen and I had an idea for a story, I started to write it and who knew… especially given my background is in business with a degree in Chemical Engineering!!
I should have consulted you on my Black Flagged series. I delve into the world of designer chemical and biological weapons. Or maybe not! Your bullshit detector is pretty strong. 😉
Murray’s backlist is impressive. I’ll post a few of them here. Kidnap is the first in the series he wrote for his son, and is appropriate for that age. The rest are Rated R action/espionage thrillers.
I alluded to the answer to my next question, but I’m going to ask it anyway. I suspect a hilarious answer. Are you a prepper in any way, shape or form?
I’m European, our governments will make sure we’re safe – LOL!
I nearly spit out my Scotch laughing, which would have been a grave crime. I can sense you tensing up at the thought of it. Don’t worry; it’s not the good stuff. If you’re ever looking for advice regarding Scotch, look no further than Murray. He introduced me to fine Highland Scotch Whisky, Glen Goyne 17 Year to be precise, and I haven’t looked back.
Besides a critical shortage of Scotch Whisky, what do you see as the most likely threat to modern living in our lifetime? In other words, what might cause TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It)?
Definitely an object from space crashing into us, it’s happened before….
And I didn’t pay him to say that, though I should have. Though the chance might be remote (if we spot the incoming threat…and that’s a big IF), it would be catastrophic.
What are you working on next, aside from the next novella in The Perseid Collapse Series World? 😉
Something a little different, still an action based novel, just a different kind of action, cough, ahem…
I hear a Barry White song playing in the background.
Today we hear from one of my early thriller writer buddies. Ian and I met while I was heavy into writing the Black Flagged series, a hardcore covert operations/political thriller saga. Ian had recently launched his first Declan McIver book, a story about a “reformed” IRA black operative thrown back into a world of violence, and we hit it off grand—as his character would say.
I admire Ian’s writing style and the story building he demonstrated in the Declan McIver-Black Shuck series, so it was natural for me to reach out and ask him to contribute a story to the Perseid World. We’d talked in the past about my leap from writing thrillers to post-apocalyptic books, so I hoped this might pique his interest. I think it did more than spark a little interest. Ian has published one novella, The Amsterdam Directorate, and is feverishly working on the second installment. It probably goes without saying, but The Amsterdam Directorate is a natural extension of his talent as a thriller writer, and an unveiling of new skills in a new genre. Without giving away the rest, let’s here it straight from the man himself.
I mentioned your story building talent in my opening paragraphs for a reason. Beyond the taut thriller beats and compelling action found in your Declan McIver novels, I gathered a sense that you had spent an immense amount of time creating the background surrounding Declan’s early years. In my view, this contributed heavily to the success of a complicated and tortured character, and I wasn’t surprised to see that you took a similar approach to The Amsterdam Directorate.
Right. I chose to make the only connection between the original series and my novella the initial event. Everything else is entirely new. The Amsterdam Directorate explores a new geographic area and new characters, but in a familiar post Jakarta Pandemic United States where the economy is decidedly weak, militias are a part of everyday society, and the government is largely invisible outside of the larger cities.
I know readers will agree that you’ve created a complex, rich world that stands on its own within the Perseid World. With The Amsterdam Directorate, you’ve demonstrated one of the key approaches to writing in Kindle Worlds, especially in a world as vast as The Perseid Collapse. The “event” described in the original series affects everyone in the United States, and has serious repercussions around the world. Introducing readers to a new perspective reinvigorates the series and proposes new challenges. Plus, it gets readers out of New England…even I was starting to feel a little claustrophobic in my series. 😉
Beyond your knack for world building, what else really transfers strongly from your previous work?
My stories always revolve around characters that have very traumatic past experiences in their lives that color and even dictate their actions in the present to a degree. That’s continued in The Amsterdam Directorate. As I read myself into the Perseid series, what I really wanted to know more about and delve into was the experiences of people between the events of the Jakarta Pandemic and the Perseid Collapse. What did they have to do? Did the world just return to normal when the last vestiges of the plague were gone? History would tell us no. If you look back at major medical events like the Black Plague, you see that the aftermath was a time of enormous societal change. The old ways died and each time a sort of new world was born. But sometimes it took decades for the change to take hold and like anything, the old ways didn’t just go away quietly—they fought hard for their survival.
That’s the world I dropped my characters into. Like the Fletchers in the original series, the characters in The Amsterdam Directorate are at a point where several years have passed and things almost seem like they could become normal again even though there’s still a deep fear and uncertainty about the state of the world.
Like Declan McIver, in your Black Shuck books, Reverend Jacob Craft is indeed a character defined by personal trauma. His presence in the story is like a dark, overcast sky, lending an emotional anchor to a post-apocalyptic situation already wracked with trouble. We’ll talk about him in more detail shortly.
Before that, I want to address a unique aspect of your story. When we first discussed your idea for the novella, you had a ton of questions about my vision for the post-Jakarta Pandemic world. I had to do some deep thinking…scary thought for me. To me, the story in the Jakarta Pandemic was more about what happened to the Fletchers and their friends, within the narrow scope of their neighborhood. As the story progressed, the focus pulled inward, until they were essentially locked inside their homes. You had a different vision of the post-Jakarta Pandemic world, based on the story setting you chose, which once again demonstrates your strength for world building.
All right. Let’s hear more about your main character.
In just about every way, Reverend Jacob Craft was your typical rural-to-suburban American male. He was a high school football star with an ego to match his status, until a mid-season injury put an end to those hopes and dreams. Then, in the fever of patriotism that many Americans experienced after the events of September the 11th, he joined the Army and shipped off to Afghanistan. Unfortunately real war wasn’t quite the heroic Hollywood-like experience he’d imagined, and after a few tours in country, he returned to his community with a host of demons gnawing at him. After attempting to chase them away with alcohol for a number of years, it was a determined member of the opposite sex that set him right and introduced him to a higher calling. Then the Jakarta Pandemic happened, and events like those in Afghanistan came to the home front. Fortunately for those around him, Jacob was able to hang on and pull his community together in the face of more than one type of threat. The aftermath of these events is where we find him as The Amsterdam Directorate opens.
I wanted to make all of the characters, but most certainly Jacob, realistic and relatable, giving readers the sense that these could be your neighbors. They could be the guy next door, the farmer down the road, the pastor of your church, and I hope that comes through to people as they read it.
I think you nailed his character, and the characters supporting him. The story has a strong “regular people rising to exceptional circumstances” feel, which readers in the post-apocalyptic genre appreciate. I could probably take a lesson from this.
The elements found in your thriller series successfully support The Amsterdam Directorate. How do you feel about stepping into the post-apocalyptic realm?
I tried to follow the post-apoc and prepper themes, because those are what interested me most about the world. I’ve been a big fan of the Walking Dead since it began airing, but my primary interest in that series has never been the zombie / horror elements, which really serve more as a backdrop to me. What interested me from the beginning is the idea of TEOTWAWKI or “the end of the world as we know it.” I’ve been itching to explore that for awhile now and The Perseid Collapse Kindle World provided the perfect opportunity.
I think you’ve found a new home, or a cabin in the woods (more prepper friendly), when you want to take a break from the covert ops thriller world.
This is a fun question for me, because it’s a matter of public record how often each of the authors writing in the Perseid World publish work. When I discussed the details of launching the world with my “handler” at Kindle Worlds (shout out to Sean-he’s good people), I remember saying, “I think we’ll have two, maybe three novellas at launch.” We had a tight timeframe to get novellas ready for the launch. The first wave of authors, which included Ian, blew my theory away! What happened? Red Bull. Methamphetamines? I’m not liable for any substance abuse addictions incurred while writing in the Perseid Collapse world. I think that might be in fine print, somewhere.
From the moment you contacted me about this and told me the launch date, I knew I was going to have to work extremely hard to get finished on time, much less have a sensible, edited, and formatted product. This is the first time I’ve worked on a deadline and I must say that I’m very happy with the results.
That’s it? Hard work? I’m tired of hearing that. It sets the bar too high for me. I was hoping for a Misery like story, where the crazed creator of the Perseid World, or Sean from Kindle Worlds, takes you prisoner and subjects you to enhanced interrogation techniques until you’ve finished the novella. Hobbling if you try to escape. Hard work, huh? Not even a few Sam Adams beers? Ian’s nodding in my mind. I knew there was more to it than hard work. 😉
I’ve mentioned your Declan McIver character. I think readers will be interested in this well received series. Care to expand?
My other works are primarily in the political thriller genre and tell the story of a former IRA volunteer named Declan McIver. Declan has tried to move on from his past, but is pulled back into the shadows by circumstances well outside of his control and is forced to fight for the life he’s worked so hard to build in America.
Like The Amsterdam Directorate, the Declan McIver series is centered around characters fighting to keep hold of the things they hold dearest. As such there’s a high degree of action and adventure in each and a lot of common themes. There’s even a sort of prepper element to Declan in that he’s prepared himself and his home for the possibility that someone from his past will one day come looking for him. That possibility is never far from his mind and that shows in how and where he lives as well as the kind of things he’s invested his time and money into.
Characters fighting to keep the things they hold dearest. I believe this is the core of thriller writing. I didn’t know this before I started writing, but when I look back, this is the nexus that connects all of my stories. Awesome.
Everyone’s story is different, which is why I always ask. How did you become a writer?
It was a dark and stormy night and there sitting on my grandmother’s antique roll top desk was a typewriter…
No, not really. It was much more mundane than that. Ever since I was a little boy I’ve simply loved stories. It didn’t matter what it was as long as there was a larger-than-life hero, soaring deeds of daring or a quest to save the world from some sort of wicked fate, I was there and more than happy to act it out in the living room and daydream about it for days afterwards. As I grew older and people started looking at me funny when I rolled across the floor in my Indiana Jones fedora, I turned to scribbling down daydreams in notepads with the idea of “someday” doing something with them, though I had no idea what.
In 2010 my daughter was born and at the same time the industry I was involved in was going through a rough transition. So I saw the writing on the wall that it was time to start looking for something else. For some reason that’s really hard to explain I just couldn’t get the idea of writing a novel out of my head. So I said a disbelieving “okay…” to that still, small voice in my head and went to work. Three years later my first novel Veil of Civility was published to great reviews and here I am. I couldn’t quit now if I wanted to. Writing has become a part of who I am and has given me a creative outlet for all of my ideas and seemingly useless knowledge that I’ve collected over the years.
That’s far from mundane. In fact, we share the exact same motivation for taking the leap to putting our words in a novel. After three “restructurings” at my job, I knew it was only a matter of time before the game of corporate musical chairs would leave me half standing, half sitting, trying to squeeze myself onto a chair that had been occupied by someone just as worried as me about job searching in their forties (or fifties) in a shrinking job market.
Do you have a background related to your writing?
Nothing spectacular to speak of. My background is in small business. I’ve owned and operated (and still do) several businesses including real estate rentals, car washes, and mobile auto glass replacement, but my passion has always been reading, watching, or listening to stories (fiction or non-fiction) about incredible people involved in incredible things.
When I began my own writing journey I was convinced that the popular writers must have backgrounds in things like the military and intelligence and was shocked to learn that two of the most popular authors in the thriller genre, Tom Clancy and Vince Flynn, actually had backgrounds similar to mine. Tom was an insurance salesman with a lifelong interest in naval warfare and Vince was a self-described “grape nuts salesman.” This was hugely motivating to me and despite never having met either man, I owe each of them a little debt of gratitude simply for being who they were.
Tom Clancy was always a favorite of mine, which fueled my temporary jump out of post-apocalyptic writing. I think most of the truly popular genre fiction authors have little background in the writing world.
I confess this often, but I’ll do it again. Prior to writing The Jakarta Pandemic, I had never heard the word “prepper.” Survivalist, sure, but I was neither of these things. What about you? And I’ll completely understand if you don’t want to share the details of the forty-story silo buried on your property, as long as I’m invited.
The “end of the world as we know it” is something that has transfixed me for a long time, but always in a fictional setting. I never considered that it could actually happen until I realized just how fragile our society really is during a recent, unexpected windstorm.
During this storm trees fell, windows shattered, and most significantly, the power was knocked out for a large portion of the area in which I live. My family and I live in a newer section of town where the utilities are almost all underground and fared pretty well, getting our service restored within about 24 hours. So, no big deal. But for other people in the older areas of town where poles had to be dug up and replaced and wires had to be restrung it became a very big deal as the outage stretched from days into weeks. All said, it took about three weeks for every single resident to have service restored to their homes. In that time, there were shelters (at churches and schools) full of needy people, fights breaking out in places like public libraries where people wanted to use the power outlets to charge items like cell phones, and a collective shrug from the local government who wasn’t the least bit prepared for any of it. To make a long story short, there was a general sense of anxiety throughout the area for several weeks and it made me realize just how little it would take for things to spiral out of control.
I think becoming a father was a major factor in the realization as well. The idea of not being able to provide for my family, especially my little girl, is terrifying to me. So, my family and I are having some conversations about emergency preparedness and such. I won’t say I’m a full on “prepper” just yet, but I may be before too long.
I can only think of one response to your last sentence. You have to cue up the raspy Yoda voice. “You will be. You will be.” For obvious reasons, The Jakarta Pandemic got me thinking seriously about what it takes for a family to survive a disaster. The Perseid Collapse series was like a PhD study, with Randy Powers as an adjunct professor. It’s hard to create these stories, without changing your mindset. Within a month, you’ll start to notice that your Amazon browsing history is mostly prepper related items, then the brown packages will start arriving weekly, if not daily. My advice is to somehow intercept these packages before you wife sees them. Less questions that way.
Inevitably, your wife is going to figure it out, and want to know why a significant portion of the children’s college savings is going to things like tactical tomahawks, waterproof matches, MREs, and rifle optics. What will you tell her? What is your most convincing, and fully vested end of the world scenario?
There’s a ton of scenarios that could technically happen, but I think the major one is something like I just mentioned above; a natural disaster of some sort that effects a broad section of territory and just throws things into a tailspin. In that situation you wouldn’t want to be out on the road trying to get somewhere else. You’d be better off in your own home with enough supplies to ride out the panicked reactions of other area residents.
When I think of prepping, this is really what I think of. I don’t think you can prepare for everything and nor should you try. I think you should focus first on the short term. Can you stay in your home for one, two, three weeks, maybe a month and be able to eat, drink, warm up, cool down, protect yourself, and ultimately live a relatively normal existence without having to rely on grocery stores, gas stations, and the availability of public utilities? That’s the question I think every head of household needs to take a hard look, answer honestly, and then get to work. That’s where I’m at.
Make sure she reads your novellas, and all of mine. I’ve been able to slide quite a few items past the censors that way. I think I added a .308 to my collection (I mean necessary stockpile) by including a chapter that reinforced the need for a heavier caliber rifle. This writing gig pays off in more ways than one. And anyone that tattles will be unfriended on Facebook.
What will you write next in that beautiful writing cabin? Check out his digs. Amazing.
Next up for me is two more Perseid Collapse novellas that will round out the story of The Amsterdam Directorate. The first “sequel” if you will is going to be ready on or around March 20th and the last installment on or around April 30th.
After that, it’s back to work on the long-awaited second Declan McIver novel. I have it nearly completed, but might wait until the third quarter “reading season” begins to publish it. Generally speaking spring and summer aren’t good times to publish because that’s when people are putting down their e-readers and looking outside for sources of entertainment. We’ll just have to see if I can sit on a completed product that long. I’m horribly impatient. 🙂
The Amsterdam Directorate being your first foray into the post-apocalyptic genre, do you think you’ll revisit the genre with your own future books?
I can totally see that happening. My first love in any story is action and adventure and I can’t imagine a genre with more unexplored opportunities for that than post-apoc fiction. While on vacation last summer I had an awesome idea for a post-apoc novel that involves a family on the run from a truly gag inducing TEOTWAWKI and an old civil war fort. So, who knows…it might happen sooner, rather than later. In the mean time, I hope readers will check out the Declan McIver series for a look at what I’m capable of in novel-length fiction.
I sincerely hope we see a stand alone post-apocalyptic novel by Ian Graham. Until then, it sounds like readers have a full novel length read ahead of them with The Amsterdam Directorate series.
The launch of Dispatches signals the end of my work in The Perseid Collapse Series. It’s hard to describe how much fun I’ve had writing the Perseid books and reconnecting with post-apocalyptic and prepper oriented readers. It has certainly kept me busy for the past year and a half.
How did I end up writing a fourth book in a planned trilogy? The short answer? Little goes as planned when writing a series. After finishing Point of Crisis, I thought The Perseid Collapse series was done. I couldn’t have been more mistaken. As I walked away from the series, glancing fondly over my shoulder, two major questions emerged from emails, reviews and blog comments. 1.) What’s happening in the world outside of New England? 2.) What’s going to happen to the Fletchers after the winter?
Ideas formed, and before I knew it, a new concept emerged. One that would address both themes voiced by readers. A hybrid novel—essentially two stories in one.
Dispatches is broken into two parts. Big Picture and Little Picture. Big Picture takes readers across the globe, to conflicts arising in the absence of the United States’ foreign presence. Of course, America is not out of the fight—she’s just taking a quieter, more satisfying role in the unfolding events. Little Picture pulls you back to Maine, to once again walk in Alex Fletcher’s shoes.
Without a doubt, writing the final lines was a bittersweet moment. Time to start something new, but hard to say goodbye. Fortunately, the world lives on with nearly 20 authors working on close to 30 novellas to complement the original series. The Perseid Collapse Series Kindle World, brought to readers through a special arrangement with Amazon, will keep the world alive and well long after I’ve stopped writing. I invite you to check out the incredible selection of novellas written by talented authors across several genres. You won’t be disappointed.
What am I working on now? A romance novel set in the 1920’s. Just kidding. In my ample spare time (sarcasm), I have created the framework for a new series set in a dystopian, drought wracked California. Talk of secession is in the air, in a frighteningly familiar, yet ultimately alien landscape. More to come on my new series soon.
A.R. Shaw—Post-apocalyptic thriller writer and former Texan
A.R. Shaw is unique within the initial wave of launch authors, because she’s the first post-apocalyptic writer I approached with the idea of writing in The Perseid Collapse Series Kindle World. Her popular series, Graham’s Resolution, tackles the idea of a devastating pandemic, but goes much further than I ever did in The Jakarta Pandemic. Her first novel, The China Pandemic (she’s on the no visa to China list with a growing number of Kindles Worlds authors), launches a much deadlier pandemic—on par with the “Captain Trips” superflu in Stephen King’s The Stand. This change alone yields an eerie, dystopian feel to her series, which readers will find mesmerizing.
A.R. Shaw
She takes this same approach in her novella, Deception on Durham Road, creating an unnerving feel to a mostly quiet and serene setting in the neighborhood featured in The Jakarta Pandemic. Of course, Durham Road immediately following the “event” is anything but safe and placid, as readers quickly learn. I’m straying into spoiler territory, so let’s get on with the interview.
When we discussed your story idea, I was really excited by the prospect of going back to Durham Road to see the disaster from a different perspective. What motivated you to return to Alex Fletcher’s neighborhood and pick up where he left?
After reading the series, starting with the Jakarta Pandemic, I chose to explore Jamie McDaniel’s character to explore. She was unique in the fact that she succumbed to the virus and survived where her husband did not. She was a fighter and she had two children that she knew who would be more or less orphaned without her. Six years later, during the Perseid Collapse, after remarrying a bad guy, she again proves she’s a fighter, when she tries to alert Alex to her situation.
This is where I picked up her story and continued to develop her character to prove she had what it takes to survive. So after the Fletcher’s and his group “bug out,” I had Jamie assess her situation on Durham road and stay there to deal with the challenges. All of the characters in my story are found in the original series, except for bicycle guy and the dog characters. Steven did such a great job seething up the world, I found plenty of material to work with. It was a great experience as a writer to play in someone else’s world.
Most writers brought their own characters to the table, interacting lightly with the original Perseid Collapse crew. This is one of the things I enjoyed the most about your story. Seeing Jamie in a different light, as a survivalist and protective mother was a view of her that I never had time to explore. Jamie’s not the only character you brought back to readers. Another, shall we say, disturbed character still lives on Durham Road. I don’t want to give this away, since it plays such an important role in the story, but readers of the series will HIGHLY appreciate what you did with (or to) that character.
I sense genre crossover in your novella, and your Graham’s Resolution series. Elements of suspense, horror…among the more obvious. Which genre or genres do you explore the most in your story?
I had not thought about this until this question but I’m surprised to say elements of the story do cross, not only from post-apocalyptic, dystopian prepper fiction but even horror to a small degree. Perhaps the most frequent is post-apocalyptic.
I couldn’t agree more. You have several very suspenseful scenes that I’d classify as horror, plus the dystopian element is strong. Like your Graham’s Resolution series, there’s also a solid prepper-themed fiction base. Jamie has learned a lot since The Jakarta Pandemic, and the skills you chose to give her come in handy to meet the challenges in your novella.
I think I just hinted at my next question. Themes. Jamie seems to embody your view of survival and readiness. Am I on the mark with this?
Survival certainly is a theme in my own series, with a flair of ingenuity. Having a female mother explore ingenuity the way Jamie does, with a sense of humor, is new for me. I think it works…we’ll see.
I would never have guessed this was a new theme for you. I think it works well within the context of Deception on Durham Road, and adds dimension to the survivalist/survivor character meme.
Tell us a little more about your main character. Why do you think readers will like Jaime?
I believe readers will like her because she’s innovative in her approach to the serious situation she’s cast in. She’s also a mother and a woman in her forties, with a sense of humor. She does it with grace, and I think this is a refreshing change for the genre. Not too many female lead roles in the genre today. It may not be a die-hard prepper novel but it’s a small look into how we as individuals look at situations differently. For Jamie, this disaster, wasn’t such a bad thing.
HAHA! Yes, she had a big reason to celebrate when events conspired to “remove” her second husband from their lives. You don’t want to mess with Jamie McDaniels. I think she’s a clever and much-needed addition to the prepper-novel world. She takes a more subtle approach to survival, and provides valuable lessons about readiness, while entertaining the reader.
I ask everyone this question. Did you have any trouble jumping into a novella based in someone else’s world?
Quite the opposite. I never realized before how much time a story’s foundation took. Having that environment set up for you made it so much easier.
One author described it as coloring between the lines. It’s a lot more complicated than that, but I agree based on my own experience writing Kindle Worlds novellas for other authors. The amount of time put into creating a realistic, viable world for a series is immense. Kindle Worlds shortcuts that process…somewhat. I know you weren’t typing this while watching TV!
Tell us about the Graham’s Resolution series. I briefly explored how your novella is similar in tone and theme to your other novels. Can you expand on that a little? Are there any differences?
In the Graham’s Resolution series, I start off with a pandemic and I’d say it’s a true dystopian event. I explore a survival situation, but the theme is very different. It’s darker. Most families are completely destroyed. My characters have to reform connections. Deception on Durham road is lighter and the family bonds that remain are strengthened for the most part.
I never thought of it that way. They’re both dystopian and dark, but the family element is a huge difference between the two. The China Pandemic takes away 98% of the population, and tears families apart, literally right in front of each other. I sensed a profound sadness in Graham’s Resolution that wasn’t present in your novella. Still, I’m not going to file Deception on Durham Road under the “uplifting, beach read” category any time soon. 😉
Would you share some of your story about becoming a writer?
Mine is similar to Steven’s, really. I wrote the China Pandemic, not really knowing what I was doing. I never submitted to a publisher and I don’t have an agent. It was very well received. I was surprised. I certainly learned some do’s and don’ts right away, but I put up the second one and then kept writing. It’s been an amazing experience.
I knew exactly what I was doing when I first wrote and published The Jakarta Pandemic—about a year later. Isn’t it amazing? Indie publishing has really changed the landscape. I went from an obscure idea to a full-time writing career all because I decided to give the novel to readers on my own terms. Time for a self-publishing high-five!
What else are we missing?
I’ve always written as a hobby but publishing is new to me. I was a radio operator in the Air Force Reserves. I’m a mom to four and married. I have a HAM radio operator license. I have a yellow lab named Oakley. I read a lot…really, I’m very boring but I like it that way.
Another author that claims they are boring. I suppose your reading is boring too?
I’ve always read post-apocalyptic fiction. I’m drawn to it without knowing why. I feel like something tells me, as a society, we’re headed in that direction. But I’m not a doomsday person. It’s more of an instinct. I might be wrong, but what if I’m not?
I don’t mean this to sound rude, but I hope your instinct is wrong. What do you see as the most likely threat to our safety?
Stupidity. Pick the avenue…government, CDC, terrorism… Or, it’s possible, Mother Nature. She’s proven to be a sly caretaker. She’s done it before and she’ll do it again.
Yeah, I’m not sure which one will win that race. Human Nature or Mother Nature. I hope it’s a really long race, or the race gets called off. I’m not holding my breath for either.
What are you working on next, aside from the next novella in The Perseid Collapse Series World? I’m like a bad comedian, returning to the same joke for a laugh.
I’ve left an opening to go back into Deception on Durham Road to write a sequel. I might do that at a later date; it depends on how well it’s received. Now, I’m working on the fourth novel in the Grahams Resolution series. There will be a fifth in the series and possibly a prequel, as well. After that I may move on to a new series.
It had been received really well. Time to continue Jamie’s story on Durham Road. I have to try. Well, I’m looking forward to book three in the Graham’s Resolution series, and I’m psyched to hear that you have a fifth planned…and possibly a prequel. I get the feeling there’s more to the pandemic in the series than you have let readers know. Very exciting!
Check out A.R. Shaw’s website to learn more about her series, and please pick up a copy of her novella, Deception on Durham Road. I want to know more about what happens to Jamie and her daughters!
Tim Queeney is one of those rare authors I’ve met in person. Quite a few times, actually. We are members of the Pine Cone Writers Den, a diverse collection of hardworking, talented authors living in and around Portland, Maine. In this day an age of virtual friends, social media contacts and email buddies (all good), I can’t tell you how satisfying it feels to sit down with in front of live writers (Skype doesn’t count…though it’s a step in the right direction). Tim anchored the action/thriller contingent of the group, treating us to his Perry Helion Series, which he explains later.
Tim is an avid sailor, and coincidentally keeps his sailboat less than fifty yards from mine. I could easily swim to his boat from my mooring—if I didn’t mind the cold water. We didn’t figure this out about until a year ago. I’ve resisted the temptation to head out on Tim’s boat, because I heard a nasty rumor that he doesn’t like to rely on electronics for navigation. Old world brute. Tim explains his disdain for GPS and all things non-Christopher Columbus era in the interview.
Sit back and enjoy my talk with Portland’s renaissance man.
We might as well start with your stubborn refusal to accept the GPS gods above as the primary method of knowing “where the hell” you are. What is wrong with you? 😉
I’m actually the member of the world’s most obscure sect, the teachers of celestial navigation, you know, using a sextant to find your way. There are only two of us left, and the other guy lives in shack in Patagonia. I actually teach people how to navigate across oceans with just a sextant, a watch and a book of sight reduction tables. No electrons, no satellites, no app store — wild thought, huh? And it’s actually so easy to do. Gives you a great feeling of self-reliance — like the first time you changed a tire or unhooked a girl’s bra. A rush of satisfaction — “I can definitely do this!”
I’m not sure how unhooking a bra relates to self-reliance, but I’m sure many of my male readers are nodding their heads in agreement. Ladies, feel free to chime in with the female equivalent. Why do I have a bad feeling about the responses I’ll get.
Where were we? Yes, Celestial Navigation. I gave Tim some hassle about not trusting GPS, because I’m very familiar with the timeless navigation methods he teaches. Once upon a time, they taught this at the United States Naval Academy (ended in 1998), and I was subjected to an entire semester of Master and Commander-esque adventures with the sextant. Times lost.
As for Tim’s claim that it’s easy to do, well, I’ll chalk that up to “instructor enthusiasm and optimism.” One thing is for sure. In the event of an EMP, the sun, moon and starts will still be there (those lights never go out), so if I’m planning to escape the U.S. in a sailboat, Tim has earned a berth on my boat…as long as he comes with his own set of reduction tables (heavy books from what I remember).
Tim Queeney
Let’s talk about the novella you wrote for The Perseid Collapse Series Kindle World. How did you link your story to the original series?
While many of the Perseid Collapse Kindle Worlds (gonna go all acro here and shorten that to PCKW) are set in the U.S., my story, The Borealis Incident, takes place far away at Thule Air Force Base in Greenland. The connecting events to The Perseid Collapse series are the meteor strikes and the EMP. Even though the Chinese target mainland U.S. for major EMP effects, my story has the EMP energy concentrated by the magnetic lines of force at the Magnetic North Pole (only 500 miles west of Thule AFB) and so Thule is hit hard too.
Since we know Alex and Kate Fletcher & company never get to the Greenland in the series (howz about an extended road trip, Steve?), there aren’t any meetings between the original characters and the folks in The Borealis Incident. I thought about what the character tie-in could be and since the main character in my story is a woman, I decided to invoke “sister power” and so Lt. Colonel Dana Wright is Kate Fletcher’s older sister.
After the events of August 19, Dana is certainly concerned about Kate, but she also knows that Alex and Kate have been through the Jakarta episode and that Alex, in particular, is almost born to succeed in an environment where he must use his training, experience and smarts. As a woman who has risen to deputy commander of an Air Force base, Dana is no slouch herself and it would be interesting to bring the two of them together in a story. They’d both have strong ideas about how to proceed — sparks, baby!
Judging from what I’ve seen when my wife and sister-in-law are in charge of family get togethers, I don’t know if the post-event world in The Perseid Collapse series could survive! No doubt that Alex would have to take a back seat. Not a bad idea for a sequel to The Borealis Incident. I wonder who could write it? Hmmm.
This is a loaded question for you. I probably had your novella in mind when I wrote it. The Perseid Collapse can be classified under a number of sub-genres. Obviously, it falls under post-apocalyptic, but it also delves into the realms of technothriller, prepper fiction, military, dystopian and even horror. Which of these genres do you explore the most in your story? Hint…all of them.
Borealis is a fun house ride — plenty of thriller elements mixed with some other nastiness popping up. Whereas preppers in the U.S. have to deal with the collapse by themselves, the characters in Borealis are members of the military or ex-military contractors and have resources most people don’t have. Yet, as the saying goes, we’re always preparing to fight the last war, so when “the ejecta hits the air circulation device,” the result is not what anyone expects.
Without giving anything away, readers will not expect the devious twist you through at them with Camp Amorak. Shortly in the novel, readers will begin to suspect that the camp isn’t what it seems, but you have no idea. I’ll shut up.
Given that you’ve pretty much covered every genre possible in your story, let’s talk about themes. What major theme comes across the clearest in your story? Is this a theme found consistently in your other works?
Early in the story Dana thinks she really has a handle on the deputy commander job. Then a meteor strike and the EMP knock everything ass backwards and her eyes are opened, learning firsthand what has been going on right all around her.
My Perry Helion thrillers (The SHIVA Compression, The Atlas Fracture and soon to be released, The Ceres Plague) exhibit a similar sense that hidden priorities and dangerous groups lurk within structures we think we understand. Who can you trust? What is really happening and what does that mean for the future?
One iconic scene from the movie The Matrix said it well (and referenced the similar scene from Alice in Wonderland): “Do you want to swallow the red pill and see how deep the rabbit hole goes?”
Your main character is a woman? Dana? I was thinking Dana Carvey. I don’t know if I would have approved your novella if I knew Dana was female. How can this be a cool apocalyptic tale? For the record, I’m totally kidding…and looking over my shoulder for my wife, who could no doubt sense me typing that.
Dana is tough and smart, and though she starts the story a little naïve, she rolls with the punches and thinks well on her feet. She thinks the main challenge as deputy commander of Thule Air Base is to keep everything running smoothly as it has for decades. Then August 19th happens and she is forced to deal with events way outside her training, including rescuing her husband and daughter, who are nearby the base on an expedition to the ice cap. Dana has to make some tough decisions along the way.
As for pandas, they aren’t indigenous to the Arctic, but what if an air shipment of the critters crashed near Thule AFB and the ravenous fiends escaped and as they scampered toward the base… ah, never mind.
Like my wife, Dana is not to be messed with or underestimated on any level. I particularly like how she quickly hardens to the situation, giving no quarter when it comes to the people under her command or her family.
I know you wrote The Borealis Incident in record time. Do you care to explain why we don’t see at least two full size novels from you per year? Does this feel like an interrogation?
Without Russell Blake’s direct line to cartel warehouses, I had to sleep. So I didn’t get it done nearly as quickly. Was a fun effort, though. Glad to be a part of the PCKW launch.
I’m not sure what’s in those warehouses, but we could all use some of it. I know you busted your butt to meet the deadline, and sincerely appreciate that…readers will too.
You’ve written three books in the Perry Helion series (the third to be released soon). How are they similar to your novella?
Seems the main characters in thrillers are either hyper-capable and super intelligent or are just resilient men or women doing their best — like Alex Fletcher (although Alex is so well prepared and experienced, he sometimes fits into the hyper-capable category). The main character of my Perry Helion books falls onto the Alex side of the spectrum. Perry, an agent for DARPA is resourceful and savvy and does whatever he can to get the job done. In the upcoming The Ceres Plague, Perry turns a 95-ton Belaz 7555 mining truck into the world’s biggest lock pick to gain entry into a Russian mobster’s luxury compound.
Dana in The Borealis Incident is a lot like Perry. She has to decide on a course of action without a lot of information or time. She and Perry are both good at thinking on their feet. They’d make a pretty good team.
Lock pick is an interesting term for battering ram. A bank heist with you might not be a great idea…unless it’s Fort Knox.
Here’s the question readers are waiting for. Are you a prepper or homesteader?
Not a prepper, as such, but I respect the desire to be prepared and self-reliant. That’s a great way to be. I’ve always thought I could peddle my knowledge of celestial navigation to folks after the apocalypse. You know, how to get around using sun and the stars in exchange for a side of beef? Hmmm, yeah, maybe I should start buying survival gear.
I’m trying to picture you carting around your sight publications, sextant case, recording logs and reams of paper through the post-apocalyptic streets of Portland. Might be easier to spend an afternoon at Cabelas with a credit card.
What do you see as the most likely threat to modern living in our lifetime? In other words, what might cause TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It)?
Nuclear war remains the biggest threat. And not even a general thermonuclear exchange between Russia and the U.S. or China and the U.S. Some studies have predicted that even a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan could cause sufficient burning to throw vast amounts of smoke and soot into the atmosphere. The result could be “a death shroud” of nuclear winter that would end all food production for years. Any larger exchange of nukes between the major nuclear powers would be a foregone conclusion to produce a nuclear winter. So, although all the fear of nukes may have been pushed aside by zombie and plague phobia, they are still the most potent danger on the planet. You can read how Perry Helion keeps the world safe from a U.S./Russia nuclear war in my book The SHIVA Compression.
Some type of killer pathogen would also have to be considered a huge threat. Although the human immune system has been kicking ass and taking names for millennia, there’s always the possibility it’ll run up against a bug more badass than any it has encountered before. If our immune systems screw the pooch then we’re probably in big trouble, too, right? What about an organism brought up from a subglacial Antarctic lake that has had a million years to mutate? That’s a chilling element to my Perry Helion thriller The Atlas Fracture. How the hell does Perry deal with that one?
Perry Helion shout-out! This is a scary thought. Whether it’s a virus buried in the ice for thousands of years, or released from a meteorite (ala The Andromeda Strain), the concept of a virus novel to our immune system makes for great nightmares.
What’s next? I assume another Perry Helion story?
Yes. Working on the next book in my Perry Helion series, The Proteus Evasion. Perry gets himself in another bind. Hope he knows how to get out of it because I sure don’t!
That’s kind of how it works for us, isn’t it? The plot kind of works itself out.
Check out Tim’s website HERE. You’ll find an eclectic range of fascinating articles, along with more information about his work. And don’t forget to grab a copy of The Borealis Incident. It’s a great addition to the Perseid Collapse World.
An international thriller/covert ops writer by trade, Alex and I have a lot of common ground outside of the post-apocalyptic genre. Like many of the authors writing in the Perseid World, he broke onto the scene with rapid fire, timeline driven thrillers. Hetman, his first novel, received critical acclaim in the UK and has been translated into several languages. Follow up novels featuring Alex’s signature protagonist, Aidan Snow, include Cold Black and Cold Blood.
Alex spent many of his earlier years in the Ukraine, teaching and business consulting out of Kyiv. Currently, he splits his time between family in the UK and business development opportunities throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa. When I first spoke with Alex, I was particularly intrigued by his character, Aidan Snow, a former SAS trooper living in Kyiv. Coincidence? Write what you know? I’ll quit speculating now, before I get in trouble. 😉
Readers are in for a treat with BLACKLINE. He’s remained quiet about the plot, but I have learned that novella features an SAS trooper “on holiday” in Maine…during August 2019. I know—Bad timing. As you probably guessed, this won’t be a story about sitting around a dark hotel room, parsing food and hoping the lights come on. An unruly group of tourists, with thick Russian accents, has taken residence nearby, and their presence in Maine, on the cusp of the “event,” is not likely a coincidence.
HOT ZONE just hit the audiobook shelves at Audible and iTunes, so instead of a post with a single title, I thought I’d create a post listing all of my audiobook titles. A one stop reference for those of you with long commutes, long walks to take, long breaks at work OR those of you who simply don’t like to “READ.” I know who you are!
WHAT IS THE ZULU VIRUS? Check out the description of the virus taken directly from the Black Flagged novels. 
1.) Adaptive Camouflage: Sometimes called “active camouflage,” this fledgling technology today will be fully developed and available to the military and highest bidder in the 2035 world created for Rogue State. You can imagine the tactical benefits of rendering a vehicle or operative invisible to the naked eye or infrared detection. Check out a few links describing today’s efforts to harness this technology. The image to the right is from the movie Predator, I couldn’t resist…the ultimate in adaptive camouflage.
2.) Rifle mounted, goggle integrated cameras: This isn’t exactly something new, but it isn’t routinely fielded today. I got the idea from playing Call of Duty and did some research. Like anything that might provide the modern day field operative or soldier an advantage, companies are putting consider time and money into development. Consider the benefit of being able to stick your rifle around a corner, see a target and shoot it.
3.) Facial Recognition Software is widely, publicly and openly used by law enforcement and government agencies in 2035. A few states have declared it unconstitutional and prohibit the use of FRS technology. This isn’t new either, but as far as we know, proactive, wide scale use by the government hasn’t been implemented yet—OR HAS IT? Here’s a quick paragraph from Rogue State describing the problem.
5.) Taking advantage of the population resettlement, drug cartels from Mexico have seized control of most of Arizona and New Mexico. The U.S.-Mexico border no longer exists as a barrier in those areas, and fierce battles rage between well equipped cartel soldiers and National Guard units in key border cities along the Texas border. It’s fair to say that the State Department has issued a travel advisory to Americans thinking about vacationing in Mexico. Much of Rogue State takes place a few miles south of the border or in these lawless U.S. areas.
7.) Mercenaries used by corporations to achieve their “goals.” You already got a good taste of this in Fractured State. CERBERUS is essentially a high-end mercenary outfit retained by corporations to safeguard their financial interests—or create new ones. In Rogue State, you’ll meet a slightly less refined group of mercenaries, comprised of former Russian Special Forces (GRU) operators. They specialize in murder and mayhem, which will unfold spectacularly and gruesomely.
10.) A Bigger Plot Unfolds: I’ll talk more about this in the fifth Behind The Scenes article, but it will become clear to Nathan Fisher and David Quinn that the California Liberation Movement is far more than what it seems to the public. They’ll face a tough decision when confronted with the full scope of Jose’s plan.
If you’ve read any of my books, you probably can guess that I like weapons. From knives to attack helicopters, I don’t shy away from the details, and I like my characters to make the best use of the weaponry available to them. Fractured State gave me the unique opportunity to take systems currently in development, and imagine them in widespread use 20 years from now. Every firearm is more compact and versatile, ammunition is far more lethal, heavy duty weapons systems normally employed by armies are now available to mercenary groups, and the effectiveness of personal protective equipment has increased to counter this new lethality. Take a look at the following links, along with a brief explanation of how I chose to employ that technology in Fractured State.
Color night vision technology
Smart grenade launchers
1.) Creating a world to support a series requires me to create a ALTERNATE HISTORY, or in the case of Fractured State, a FUTURE set 20 years from today. Either way, I start out with a TIMELINE OF EVENTS. This is outside of the story plot. For the Fractured State series, I started in 2016 and envisioned the world, national, state and personal-level events that would land the reader on page one. As you can see, this sheet has endured coffee and beer stains, many on-the-fly changes and an accidental “throw away” since I created it in early 2015. It rarely leaves my side while I’m writing.
For Fractured State, I spent a lot of time studying WATER sources in California, the rest of the southwest and the Great Plains. While the events in my story are purely fictional, the historic, ongoing drought in California and the U.S. Southwest is REAL. Frighteningly real. California’s current drought started me on the path to writing this series. The more I researched, the more I knew I had the background for an incredible story. What if the drought continued for another 20 years like many climatologists agree is possible? AND what if the effects of the drought were intensified by corrupt group of greedy industrialists and enforced by a ruthless mercenary army on their payroll? Secession? Mayhem? 
There’s nothing wrong with predictions, I just think other authors tackle the subject better. Why reinvent the wheel, so to speak. Take a moment to read Russell Blake’s 
The past two to three years has been tumultuous for both the indie and traditional publishing industry. Authors have seen ups and downs, like waves, and panic has ensued when they starts the downward journey into the trough. Of course, the waves come in different sizes for each author, and in some cases, the ride down is indeed scary—just like the ride up a massive wave of sales can be exhilarating. Kristine Kathryn Rusch does a far better job describing the wave metaphor in one her most memorable 2015 posts—
happening, but the extent of the impact didn’t sink in until recently. I received a message from Sean T. Smith, author of the novella 
