I arrived at a rather unenviable and hopefully “once in a lifetime” position recently—having accurately predicted the pandemic now sweeping the globe.
It’s an inexplicably eerie feeling. A pandemic is not something you ever hope to be “right about.” You hope it never happens. Unfortunately, one of my greatest fears has come true. A fear with its roots firmly planted in my first novel, The Jakarta Pandemic (TJP for short), published ten years ago.
The idea for TJP sprang from an already unhealthy obsession with viral outbreaks. Captain Trips from Stephen King’s epic, The Stand, was burned into my psyche from an early age. I burned through The Andromeda Strain by Michael Crichton in a single sitting. The book Hot Zone by Richard Preston and movie Outbreak was like a one-two punch, released a year apart in 1994-95. The movie 28 Days Later in 2002. Max Brooks brilliant novel, World War Z a few years after that. I couldn’t get enough of these stories. And then the Swine Flu pandemic hit in 2008! Looking back, it should have come as no surprise to anyone, especially me, that my first stab at writing a novel would center around a pandemic.
However, despite my initial enthusiasm—the project barely got off the ground. The usual first time, part time writer challenges applied. Didn’t know what I was doing and wasn’t sure it would be worth the effort. Limited time to write. Busy with two young kids. Everything got in the way, but the biggest delay came from what turned out to be the novel’s greatest strength.
I spent at least six months researching past pandemics, virology, disease epidemiology, U.S. and world pandemic response protocols and detection capabilities, vaccine production, the U.S. healthcare and medical infrastructure, U.S essential services infrastructure, supply chain dynamics.
I consumed every article or paper publicly available that could help me understand the various impacts of a pandemic on society. I had hit what writers call “research paralysis,” where I was obsessed with collecting and digesting more information than I truly needed to write the novel.
When I finally broke through to the other side, I decided to tell the story differently. I steered away from the heroic CDC scientist hopping from one jet to another to reach the next hot zone or the critical response team fighting against all odds to stay one step ahead of the pandemic. Instead, I focused on a single family’s tense and claustrophobic struggle to stay alive during the most lethal pandemic in recorded human history. Of course, I threw way more at them than an unseen virus. Society collapses in my novel (along with nearly all essential services), pitting neighbor against neighbor in a vicious struggle to survive.
What does this have to do with me predicting the COVID19 Pandemic?
Fast forward ten years from the publication of The Jakarta Pandemic to January of this year. Without going into exhaustive detail (I’ve already taken up enough of your time)—YOU DON’T LOCKDOWN AN ENTIRE CITY OF 11 MILLION PEOPLE FOR THE SEASONAL FLU. I had been watching the virus news closely when Wuhan was locked down by Chinese authorities, noting that the first case detected in the U.S. a few days earlier, had recently returned from a trip to Wuhan. That was all I needed to know.
Note: ALL OF THESE POSTS ORIGINATED ON FACEBOOK. I REBROADCASTED MOST OF THEM ON TWITTER AND ON THIS BLOG.
Another note: I posted a few times between the end of January and the start of my regular posting on Feb 27th, but deleted those posts due to harassment via email and PM on Facebook…and directly on the posts. Most of the harassment centered around the theme “liberal hoax hyped by Fake News Media.” THIS IS NOT A PARTISAN OR POLITICAL ISSUE FOR ME. I was critical of the Ebola response in 2014 in two widely circulated posts. POST ONE. POST TWO.
JANUARY 27th
Looking at this representation of the Wuhan Coronavirus brings me back to 2008, when I started to write my first novel, THE JAKARTA PANDEMIC. Publicly available, interactive digital maps like this didn’t exist at that point (outside of a few barely navigable sites), so I created what I would want to see if I were tracking a pandemic virus. Looks like I wasn’t alone. LINK to Wuhan Coronavirus tracking site–> https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/…/opsdashboa…/index.html…
From THE JAKARTA PANDEMIC (2010)
“Next, Alex navigated to the International Scientific Pandemic Awareness Collaborative (ISPAC) site and checked their world activity map. Color-coded symbols littered the world, each representing a reported flu outbreak. Placing the mouse icon over one of the symbols activated a text box, which could be further expanded for more detailed information. Light blue: cases of interest, yellow: initial outbreak, orange: small-scale outbreak, red: medium-sized outbreak, violet: large-scale outbreak.
He moved the map to China and saw that dozens of southern coastal cities were shaded either orange or red; Hong Kong and the surrounding areas were shaded violet. He passed the mouse over one of these areas. “Greater Guangzhou city. Population 12,100,000. Massive outbreak. 8,000+ reported cases. Uncontained. Containment efforts focused on Guangdong Province.”
Alex zoomed out of China and settled on a worldview. Colored dots appeared to sweep outward in a concentric wave from Southeast Asia. A solid perimeter of blue dots extended from Japan, through South Korea and Vladivostok, then reached across northern China and connected with Pakistan and India. India was covered in blue dots and yellow dots; orange icons appeared centered over several major cities within India.”
FEBRUARY 27th
My take on the COVID-19 virus.
BEFORE I GET STARTED—THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO PANIC, but it is definitely time to take a few key steps to avoid panic later.
“AS OF YESTERDAY, I CAN NO LONGER INDIVIDUALLY REPLY TO REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION OR OPINIONS REGARDING THE COVID-19 VIRUS. The number of emails and messages has become overwhelming. That said, I don’t want to leave readers and friends hanging, so I’ve put together the key information, predictions and recommendations that I’ve gathered or formed over the past few weeks.
Disclaimer: I’m not a scientific expert in pandemic epidemiology…or anything for that matter! However, I did exhaustively researched pandemics and complex healthcare plans to address pandemics for my first novel, THE JAKARTA PANDEMIC (TJP), which was published in 2010. TJP was one of the first modern novels to address the average citizen’s experience during a lethal pandemic, from the arrival of the virus to a sensationalized breakdown of society. The virus I “brought to life” was far worse than anything we’ve seen in recorded history. That’s how you sell fiction. I don’t think we’ll ever see anything even remotely as deadly and destructive as the virus I created for that novel. Why tell you this? Because we’re not dealing with this kind of scenario with COVID-19—BUT WE’RE STILL FACING A UNIQUELY LETHAL CRISIS. Let me explain.
WHAT ARE WE ACTUALLY DEALING WITH?
CONTAGIOUSNESS:
COVID-19 is very likely twice as contagious as the seasonal flu, spread by DROPLET CONTACT (cough, sneeze or nose/mouth wipe that ends up on a surface and is then transmitted when someone else touches the surface…or if someone sneezes/coughs right into your face) and quite possibly some AIRBORNE CONTACT (aerosolized droplets from coughs and sneezes float around for a while and land in your mouth, eyes or other mucus membranes). Airborne contact has not been scientifically demonstrated, but the fact that it spreads faster than seasonal flu has experts suspected an airborne component.
MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY:
Chinese epidemiological reports based on current infection data puts the case fatality rate (CFR) at around 2%. This may change, but experts think it will hover right around that number. Seasonal flu has a CFR around .1%…so COVID-19 is 10-20X more lethal if contracted. On top of that, 20% of those infected require critical care (ICU level) to survive. This is important to remember.
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND CASE FATALITY BREAKDOWN:
Noted Harvard epidemiologist and many other experts expect 40-70% of world population to be exposed to COVID-19 within a year. This sounds high to me, and only time and more data will tell.
Case Fatality Rate data: The older and more immunocompromised you are, the worse it gets.
Under 50 Years old—.2 to .4 CFR (2-4X greater than seasonal flu. This is still BAD) 50-59 — 1.3% (10X) 60-69 — 3.6% (You do the math) 70-79 — 8% 80 and above — 15% Cardiovascular disease, diabetes, pulmonary disease? 6-10%
PREDICTIONS:
This is rough guess stuff based on data presented above and expert opinion (not mine).
—THIS WILL NOT BE AN APOCALYPTIC SCENARIO LIKE MY BOOKS. We’re looking at a slower burn scenario with limited, but ultimately significant impacts on society and daily life. COVID-19 —The food supply/power grid/water supply systems are unlikely to fail. I just don’t see that happening. What I do see happening is a brief, intense run on the stores (a few weeks), which will empty the shelves temporarily. Food will return, but daily essentials like toilet paper (think of what you resupply every few weeks), OTC medicines, prescription medicines will constantly be in demand. Picture a grocery store and how much shelf space is dedicated to different classes of items. —You will need to prepare for a 1-2 month period of general, but not complete societal “shut down.” Businesses closed. Restaurants shut. Day care and schools closed. Work places closed? THIS WILL BE THE MOST FRIGHTENING TIME—FOR GOOD REASON. You will want to avoid or severely limit public exposure. YOU NEED TO PREPARE FOR THIS! Can you remain mostly at home for a month or two, without resupplying? If you have to go out, can you keep yourself safe from infection and panic induced crime? —The closure of schools, daycares and workplaces WILL SERIOUSLY STRAIN financially insecure families, if not ruin them financially. YOU MUST PLAN FOR THIS. Talk with employers ahead of time. Whatever it takes. This won’t last forever, but too many people can’t afford to take a single unpaid day off from work TODAY! I can’t understate the importance of this aspect. —Don’t count on the healthcare system to help you. The U.S. has 1 million hospital beds…only a fraction of those are capable of ICU level care. If 20% of half of our population requires critical care—that’s around 30 MILLION very sick people without a bed when the pandemic music stops!
WHAT CAN YOU DO TODAY?
—Do whatever is within your means to prepare for a 1-2 month period of minimal public contact. Food. Medicine. Home essentials. FOCUS ON STUFF YOU CAN YOU USE EVEN IF COVID-19 DOESN’T MATERIALIZE. This is the key to readiness. Everything I buy will be used within a matter of a few years. —Prepare for your kids to be home. Even if the schools don’t close, do you really want them at school? The reported fatality rate is VERY LOW for kids, but they can still bring the virus home to YOU! —Start talking to your employer today about COVID-19 plans. Better to get the conversation rolling now, then to pull an absence that cost you your job or a few weeks of pay. —Stockpile FLU mitigating medications. CLICK LINK TO SEE LIST. Most of us will come down with nasty flu symptoms that are not life threatening, but can be very uncomfortable…and possibly get worse if left untreated. —Stockpile disinfectant supplies like bleach based sprays/solutions, disinfectant wipes for door handles/cars/shopping carts, hand sanitizer, and masks (any kind…but preferably N95 level protection). —Stockpile IMMUNE SYSTEM boosting supplies like Multivitamins, extra Vitamin C, Elderberry in any form, Oregano Oil…lots of stuff out there that can help with this. Stay rested. Eat Healthy.
SUMMARY:
Let’s hope this doesn’t get nearly as bad as the experts indicate—BUT LET’S TAKE SOME STEPS NOW TO PREVENT A DISASTER IF COVID-19 CONTINUES TO SPREAD AS PREDICTED.”
FEBRUARY 28th
A well balanced and thoughtful article on COVID-19 by Randy Powers. Worth a read. No panic. Just sound, practical advice.
As you can imagine, I’ve digested hundreds of articles over the past few weeks related to the coronavirus threat. Several have stood out as well-balanced and informative. Giving these articles a few minutes of your time will put you on the right track to “Prepare without fear. Prepare with intelligence. Prepare with benevolence.” — Dr. Hal Cohen.
WHY YOU SHOULD STOCK UP ON TOILET PAPER (and everything else you need to keep your household running for 2-4 weeks of complete or partial isolation) RIGHT NOW.
THE SIMPLE ANSWER IN TWO PARTS:
1.) You and your loved ones will have a far better chance of remaining safe from COVID19.
2.) As it starts to become even more obvious that COVID19 is here to stay for a while, this may be your last chance to acquire these supplies for a long time (I don’t have data to support this one, but just take a look at the news).
Is this panic or fear based? No. It’s data based.
The first thing we need to do is DROP the mantra “BUT THIS ISN’T AS BAD AS THE SEASONAL FLU!”
It isn’t, YET…but scientific data and disease epidemiologists says it WILL BE…or at the very least IT SHOULD BE. Let’s hope math and the experts are wrong. Or as a good Marine buddy of mine once said, “you can wish in one hand and shit in the other…and see which one fills up first.” You get the not so pretty picture.
THE SLIGHTLY MORE COMPLICATED ANSWER IN MANY PARTS:
1.) COVID19 IS NOT GOING AWAY ANY TIME SOON. It’s Reproductive Number (R0 or “R-naught”) is somewhere between 1.4 and 4, which is consistent with historical coronaviruses. R0 is the number of patients each patient infects on their own. An R0 BELOW 1 means the disease dies out. An R0 AT 1 means it infects one person and the disease grows at a steady rate. An R0 OVER 1 means the disease spreads exponentially. Season flu has an R0 of 1.2…WITH A VACCINE ADMINISTERED AHEAD OF TIME AND DURING THE FLU SEASON! COVID19’s R0 is most likely double or triple the seasonal flu, and there is NO VACCINE.
1A.) BONUS! Infected people typically shed the virus (directly give it to you or give it to a door handle that gives it to you) for 7 DAYS before showing symptoms. Some can remain asymptomatic for 14 days…higher time periods are suspected. ALSO, a study released today in the LANCET indicated that the mean number of days a patient remains contagious in ICU is 20 days in survivors. 37 days was the longest observed. This is not like your typical cold or sinus thing, where we all think “once I’m showing symptoms, I’m not contagious.”
2.) COVID19 IS MORE LETHAL THAN THE SEASONAL FLU. The latest data points coming out of China (44K patient analysis) and Italy did not dampen the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) as many had hoped. Data confirmed a fairly steady 2.3% overall CFR. That’s 23X higher than seasonal flu at .1%. The older you are, or sicker you are, the worse the scenario. If you’re older than 60, or have comorbid diseases (heart disease, diabetes, etc), you are anywhere from 36-148X more likely to die from COVID19 than the seasonal flu. SEE THE DATA BELOW.
2A.) BONUS! 37,000 Americans died last year from the flu…and WE HAD A FLU VACCINE (admittedly the vaccine is not perfect). We will not have a vaccine for COVID19 for at least a year, maybe longer.
2B.) CYNICAL TAKE: Hey…maybe only the same number of Americans will die from COVID19 as the flu. WHAT A MORBID THOUGHT…one I see repeated day in and day out. One I’ve now seen both the leader of the US and UK state publicly. SEE the part where I say BUY TOILET PAPER and other stuff NOW, because with our leaders spouting this attitude, I can assure you they do not have your best interest at heart. Listen to the experts please.
3.) COVID19 IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NUMBERS SUGGEST. This is a math based theory.I’m not going to get into the math, but the bottom line is that we haven’t been testing for COVID19 in any wide scale manner. As testing picks up, we’ll start to see a glimpse of the real numbers. WE HAVE TO FACE IT. COVID19 has been here since the first infected travelers got off the plane from Asia. We don’t know when that happened, but since China has been fighting the outbreak since December, it’s fair to say that the first infected passengers arrived in January. TWO MONTHS AGO. If you understand exponential growth, you’ll quickly understand why the currently reported numbers are likely off by a magnitude of ten or more.
SO…what was I saying earlier? Oh yeah. It might be prudent to prepare for a short (2-4 week) period of time when you can stay away from the general public…or anyone outside of your circle of sanitized trust. Make sure the vulnerable in your family or in your neighborhood are similarly situated. Significant social distancing by the population (to include self-quarantine/isolation) will be the only way to drop that R0 below or close enough to 1 to slow this thing down to a manageable level. Please plan accordingly, in a non-panicked manner…before it is too late.
For those of you that made it this far…YES, I should be writing a book right now, but I’m trying to keep you and your peeps alive and well. And I’m happy to do it.
MARCH 11
PLEASE READ THE ACCOUNT BELOW FROM A DOCTOR ON THE FRONT LINES IN ITALY. I’ve heard similar reports from other doctors interviewed on NPR or other news agencies.
***IF THIS POST IS TOO LONG FOR YOU, CLICK THE ARTICLE FOR THE HIGHLIGHTS.
1.) What’s happening in Italy is unlike anything these doctors have ever seen. THIS IS NOT JUST THE FLU. The flu doesn’t crush healthcare systems in a few weeks. The Lombardy region is industrialized and the system is decent by all standards. Not perfect, but let’s face it…neither is ours.
2.) The elderly (70 and above) are AT MUCH HIGHER RISK of permanent organ damage or death from COVID19 than the seasonal flu. Preparing now for the scenario described below will save thousands of their lives.
3.) Young people have been hospitalized and put in the ICU, in much lower numbers, but on to #3.
4.) ICU beds and critical care equipment (ventilators) in Italy are at capacity. Your 8 year old who develops symptoms will not get a bed here once they are filled by the older people who will present severe symptoms far sooner. TRIAGE will go into effect. Your child is very, very likely to survive by being sent home with care instructions…the old person isn’t. Same for you if you’re under 60. Hospitals will prioritize those most at risk. That’s TRIAGE. One of the Italian doctors interviewed stated that only under the most unusual circumstances will SOMEONE UNDER 65-without complications-BE ADMITTED TO THE HOSPITAL.
5.) The US has one of the unhealthiest populations in the world. Italians have an average life expectancy FIVE years longer than Americans. That’s significant. Tons of reasons why, but there’s no point in getting into that. It’s fair to say that your average Italian boomer is healthier than a U.S. boomer. COVID19 will hit our older population just as hard or harder—IF WE ALL DON’T ACT RESPONSIBLY.
DON’T PANIC. JUST TAKE SOME BASIC PRECAUTIONS. THE MOST IMPORTANT BEING——SOCIAL DISTANCING IN ITS MANY FORMS.
MARCH 12
I WILL BE SHARING MORE POSTS LIKE THIS. The danger is real, but there’s a right way to approach it and manage it. My guess is that Dr. Hal Cohen‘s approach will become, or already is, the norm. A robust testing capacity is at the heart of a sound and effective strategy. S. Korea has already turned the tide. Let’s hope it’s not too late here. And let’s keep the safety of our front line of defense in mind. The more we understand how the front line is fighting this, the better we can manage our own expectations if we suspect we’ve been infected.
From Dr. Cohen:
Now that SARS-CoV2 is confirmed to be in Maine, I was asked about the testing protocol.
Here is my reply:
What we are being told makes little sense to me
I am pissed
We need to be testing like south Korea did
Right now they are telling us for people who have fever and a cough but who otherwise do not feel all that sick to stay home and go out and about once they feel better
Makes no sense
We should be testing them
The virus sheds for 7 to 12 days. So if these people with mild disease feel better in three days and return to work ( though they are less contagious than at the outset ) they are still contagious
We need MORE testing, not less
The problem is if we test everyone we would overwhelm our ERs. They would be tied up or if we brought everyone into the office we’d be excessively exposing people to the virus in our waiting rooms even though we are slapping a mask on them ASAP and getting them into a room ASAP
We need to set up a system whereby we are testing people in their home or like they did in South Korea, at designated stations which limited contact brilliantly
This needs to be initiated by public health and local government, however, because it needs funding in order for us to test maximally
The bottom line is we are doing this not for the otherwise healthy young person or middle aged person, but to protect the elderly and the frail who are at risk for hospitalization or death. I love that Tom hanks and Rita Wilson have the virus. They are mildly ill. THAT IS THE NORM!!!! So truly stop panicking!!!!!!! We need to act appropriately to protect those who are at high risk!
If people call us, this office, with a fever and cough or shortness of breath I’m bringing them in right now. I will assess them to see if they have the flu or strep throat or a sinus infection ( if yes, no further work up is needed ) . But if I can’t fine another cause, then I need to call the hospital’s infectious disease department to ask if this is an appropriate case for testing. And then, as of March 12, I call the ER where they bring the patient into a proper isolation room dedicated for safe evaluation and testing. MOST of these people will test NEGATIVE
So that’s I am doing, that’s what we are being told to do, and that’s what we should be doing.
Christopher Kessler, should the public contact their representatives? How do we proceed politically to get this done correctly?
Bottom line – do not go to the ER unless you have significant shortness of breath and call ahead! Do not go to a walk in clinic without calling ahead! Do now show up at your primary care docs office unless you call ahead. You only need to be tested if you have FEVER and a COUGH or SHORTNESS of BREATH or a SORE THROAT (in some cases). You need to tell us in advance so we can put a mask on you ASAP. Thanks.
If you have the sniffles, congestion, a cough, sinus ache, but no fever, do not call us. We’re going to be sort of busy I love you all
Now what did I say?
Act appropriately.
And do not panic.
I’m not. And I’m right in the middle of the sh*t : )
Have a nice day
MARCH 15
PLEASE KEEP THIS IN MIND WHILE PREPARING YOUR HOUSEHOLD.
Top U.S. health officials say the coronavirus crisis and disruptions could last up to 8 weeks. Based on what we’re seeing in Italy, along with the rest of continental Europe—AND the fact that even the extremely limited data compiled in the U.S. strongly suggests we are on the same “crash course” or very likely worse—I THINK THIS IS A FAIR ASSESSMENT BY OUR TOP PANDEMIC EXPERTS.
Does that mean you need 8 weeks of food now, instead of the suggested 2 weeks? THE ANSWER IS IRRELEVANT AT THIS POINT. The stores are picked clean.
WHAT YOU CAN DO IS PLAN AHEAD—BY ORDERING STAPLES ONLINE TODAY. The supply chain is strained right now by the high demand, but it will trickle staples back into the system. ORDERING TODAY, even if the projected “in stock” date is two to four weeks out (which I’ve seen all over the internet), does two things.
1.) It gives you the ability to weather an extended crisis without having to stand in line for 8 hours to get a rationed amount of supplies (THAT’S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW IN EUROPE).
2.) It gives the supply chain the ability better manage their distribution. This is what they do best. It’s also why the stores are empty right now (On Demand Supply Chain) with nothing in back to restock them, but that’s a different story for a different time.
For those that read this far, Amazon still has some dry food availability. Can’t be picky at this point. Staples.
COVID19 can infect all age groups. Take a look at this graph. In South Korea (ROK), where they tested all ages and tested extensively, they found it MORE IN YOUNG ADULTS. In Italy, they focused testing on the more vulnerable, like we are here (the few tests we’ve done).
Young people are being admitted to ICU’s throughout Spain and France in larger numbers than expected. Their prognosis for survival is good to great, but a severe lung infection requiring ventilation can permanently damage your lungs.
It’s a lifelong payment plan…that gets worse with age. We all lose lung function as we get older. I think the estimate is one liter of lung capacity lost by age 65 in a healthy person. You start out with 6 as an adult. SO…6-2 is 4, minus another liter naturally (assuming you don’t lose capacity faster because of the damage)…Leaves you with half of your current lung capacity AT 65. That’s an FEV1 of 50 percent, or Stage III COPD. Not too far away from what they call END STAGE COPD.
End stage COPD=NO QUALITY OF LIFE.
March 16
How seriously is your state taking the COVID19 pandemic? Disclaimer: Many counties and local municipalities have taken many of these measures on their own, despite state inaction.
MARCH 18
Murray Hamilton, Roy Scheider and Richard Dreyfuss.
THIS IS HOW I’VE FELT FOR TWO MONTHS. For the record, I’m Hooper.
MARCH 19
A MUST READ:
If the CDC hasn’t already come to an arrangement with Kinsa health to utilize this tool, then there is something entirely wrong with the CDC….and when this is over, every leader in the CDC should be fired…if not criminally prosecuted…assuming that doesn’t happen regardless.
We have the technologies. They’re either already in use or they’ve been offered to us (WHO testing kits). Only ONE THING has stood in the way of managing this properly. Our GOVERNMENT.
MARCH 20
We’re just deploying the Strategic National Stockpile now? Interesting that this was NEVER mentioned in a press briefing (that I recall).
I wrote about these in 2010 in The Jakarta Pandemic:
“Hospitals and medical facilities in the heaviest hit metro areas are operating at near full capacity. HHS officials estimate that the nation’s hospitals will likely reach or exceed surge capacity by the middle of the week and have taken steps to deploy all remaining Federal Medical Stations to the hardest hit areas.
“Three of these stations have already been established in New York City, and one is operational in Los Angeles. Furthermore, HHS officials have assured state governments that all remaining Strategic National Stockpile assets have been slated for the soonest possible delivery to individual states.”
Federal Medical Stations can be deployed to hotspots. Have those been deployed to handle overload…or maybe to handle non-COVID19 patients? IS ANYONE COMPETENT MAKING DECISIONS? This stuff should have been deployed WEEKS AGO.
Of course the intelligence community did! Nobody could possibly believe that a handful of authors (nod to Russell Blake), who wrote pandemic books, and the general readiness (prepper) community (nod to Randy Powers) were the only ones that saw this coming more than two months ago.
Contrary to the WH narrative ***”Nobody saw this coming”*** EVERYBODY WITH ANY EXPERTISE OR KNOWLEDGE OF THE SUBJECT SAW IT COMING!
***INCLUDING the army of scientific and medical experts who have been warning the WH for months***
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU DISMISS EXPERTS and GO WITH YOUR GUT ON A TOPIC YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT.
IT’S CALLED GAMBLING. And the White House bet it all on RED (purposeful use of the word RED) based on a HUNCH. And the roulette ball stopped on BLACK.
EVEN WORSE, THEY PLACED THAT BET FOR ALL OF US!
P.S. The WH didn’t just gamble…it goes deeper than that. They purposefully delayed taking action—thinking they could save the Titanic and their own political and economic keisters.
ONE OF MY FINAL PSA’S REGARDING COVID19 (unless something game changing arises):
STAY HOME, unless you are running essential household missions (food, pharmacy, critical repairs, etc) OR you are working in an environment that doesn’t put you at risk of infection (you decide).
IF YOU GET INFECTED TODAY, and you get critically or severely sick (estimated 20%)—YOU MOST LIKELY WILL NOT GET THE CARE YOU NEED TO RECOVER. The last golden ticket for a ventilator was handed out some time a week or more ago. The virus has been spreading quietly for weeks at this point. DON’T RISK IT.
THERE’S NO DOWNSIDE TO PLAYING IT SAFE. IF I’M WRONG—ALONG WITH EVERY OTHER CREDIBLE VIROLOGY EXPERT, DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGIST AND PUBLIC HEALTHCARE EXPERT—I’ll gladly eat crow so to speak. I’ll be relieved, frankly. Like Dr. Fauci said…THIS IS THE TIME TO OVERREACT.
DON’T COUNT ON A BREAKTHROUGH. The medicines they are experimenting with may help…LATER. They won’t be available in the quantities needed soon. JUST ASSUME THAT.
The HAMMER is our only choice at this point…so the DANCE is a slow waltz…not a breakdance or mosh pit scene.
SUMMARY OF THE ARTICLE: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, TENS OF MILLIONS will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the HEALTHCARE SYSTEM WILL HAVE COLLAPSED.
MARCH 23
Because all of you want to track COVID19 just as closely as I do.
This is the first time I’ve breathed a little easier in about a month. Indiana’s governor has issued a “stay at home” order, to be enforced by the State Police working with local authorities. SHELTER IN PLACE.
CHECK OUT THE PUBLIC RESOURCE BELOW (shows outcomes of various responses…from none to Wuhan level lockdown) AND CONTACT YOUR STATE GOVERNOR’S OFFICE!
Even Boris Johnson gets it. I hope this is contagious.
MARCH 24
Over half of the U.S. population ordered by their states to SHELTER IN PLACE. Notice any trends?
MARCH 26
Or maybe a virus that is still several weeks away from peaking, and will almost certainly overwhelm medicals systems in every state—IS THE DOMINANT FORCE?
Or an administration that either purposefully or obtusely delayed taking the necessary actions to mitigate the impact of the virus—IS THE DOMINANT FORCE?
I’m limiting myself to one serious post per day about the pandemic. I think this one is critically important for those on the fence about “the numbers.”
1. Pay close attention to what Dr. Fauci says—WHEN HE’S OUTSIDE of the daily White House press conference. He’s frequently appearing on different media outlets. The difference is night and day from my perspective. He’s obviously constrained during the White House pressers…not so much on the outside.
2. Pay LITTLE TO NO ATTENTION to Dr. Birx right now. Check the first comments on this post for an explanation. She’s in a far tougher spot than Dr. Fauci.
WHY DO I SAY THIS? The UK data modeling hubbub is not a hubbub at all. It’s being opportunistically mischaracterized by the WH to downplay the impact of the pandemic on the U.S. It’s being used to reject Governor Cuomo’s request for ventilators…it’s being used to justify the WH’s “reopen the nation by Easter or soon thereafter” narrative.
Here’s what the Director of J-IDEA and the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, the modeler who presented the data to the UK parliament had to say about recent interpretations of their revised data. SEE BELOW.
The key? The revised data presented “to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.”
In other words, he’s saying…NOW THAT WE’VE IMPLEMENTED INTENSE SOCIAL DISTANCING AND OTHER PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTIONS…the outlook is significantly better.
THE UK IS IN A FULL NATIONAL LOCKDOWN. THE US IS NOT. HIS REVISED DATA DOES NOT APPLY HERE, OUTSIDE OF THE IMPACT THAT WILL BE MADE BY A NOT INSIGNIFICANT PATCHWORK OF LOCAL AND STATE EFFORTS.
MARCH 27
Dug through my bookmarks to find this one. Jan 30th.
This is…NOT…encouraging. Cell phone tracking used to access impact of pandemic lockdown efforts show a stark difference between Rome (with a fairly complete lockdown) and Seattle. Also shows that U.S. spring breakers dispersed throughout the U.S. east coast and midwest during what can only be assumed to be the middle of the peak infection time.
CLICK HERE to see comparison between three cities. Shanghai, Rome and Seattle —>
I wish our government had some kind of Pandemic Response playbook that streamlined and simplified the federal response from the initial detection of a PPP (pathogen of pandemic potential) anywhere in the world to its arrival and spread in the United States. Something leadership could pick up, thumb through…and within minutes determine what needs to happen to effectively combat a pandemic.
What? It already exists? It was created by the outgoing administration’s fully staffed NSC global health security team and handed to the current administration’s team and then briefed to the White House…which shortly thereafter diluted the team in a cost-saving effort?
If you have any doubt that the White House bungled the pandemic response, YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF TO READ THIS 69 PAGE DOCUMENT. IT’S EMBEDDED IN THE ARTICLE DIRECTLY BELOW…you can also download it from the article.
I’ll summarize it if you don’t want to dig into the matrixes provided.
IT’S NOW THE END OF MARCH AND THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS BARELY SCRATCHED THE SURFACE OF WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN EXECUTED TWO MONTHS AGO. A PANDEMIC IS A NATIONAL LEVEL EVENT—THE PREPARATION AND COORDINATION OF THE RESPONSE IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSIBILITY.
Pay close attention to the DOMESTIC PLAYBOOK Section. Page 31.
2a. Everything in this section should have been triggered in mid to late January, when China locked down several cities. That’s publicly available information. Imagine when and what the intel community was telling the administration. My guess is a lot more…a lot earlier. NATIONWIDE PPE DISTRIBUTION PLANS FALL UNDER THIS SECTION.
2b. The first case was identified in the U.S. on January 21st. Every disease epidemiologist and expert quickly warned, in rapid succession, that the virus was here and was spreading. EVEN I ASSUMED THIS TO BE THE CASE. At a minimum, everything in this section should have been initiated by the end of January. STRATEGIC STOCKPILE AND DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT CONSIDERATIONS FALL UNDER THIS SECTION…among other things.
MARCH 28
I wrote similar articles in 2014 regarding Ebola (one during and one when it died down).
I was not happy with the government’s response. I was very clear about that. THIS IS NOT A PARTISAN ISSUE FOR ME. I think we dodged a bullet in 2014, because Ebola is ILL SUITED FOR EPIDEMIC LEVEL SPREAD IN A FIRST WORLD NATION.
The ebola crisis demonstrated that the federal government really didn’t have its act together to effectively handle a PANDEMIC. Neither did the administration before that.
THAT’S WHY THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION CREATED THE PANDEMIC PLAYBOOK (INCORPORATING LESSONS LEARNED) FOR FUTURE USE.
Because it was never a matter of IF a lethal pandemic would sweep the globe, it was a matter of WHEN.
THE CAPTAIN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHIP. PERIOD.
And we have CAPTAIN QUEEG still counting strawberries. Some of you will get that one.
March 30
IN ONE MONTH WE WENT FROM
The President saying. “[W]hen you have 15 people (cases), and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” Feb 26th
TO
Dr. Birx saying. “…the worst case scenario is 1.6 million to 2.2 million. That’s a prediction if we do nothing. If we do things together, well, almost perfectly, we can get in the range of 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities.” Mar 29th
Perfectly from this moment forward? Who’s the “WE” she’s referring to? The government? The people? Both? She followed up with examples of how the population is no where close to handling this perfectly and that some states haven’t implemented strict stay at home orders, so I’m guessing she means the population. I sense a shift of blame here, but that may be my conspiracy thriller mind at work.
EITHER WAY. 100-200K fatalities if we do things perfectly. 1.6 to 2.2 million if we don’t. I’m not even going to hazard a public guess at the number. What’s the point? We all know it’s going to be somewhere between perfect and do nothing.
STAY HOME. FOR YOUR OWN SAKE AND THE SAKE OF OTHERS.
THE POWER TO PUSH THE NUMBER IN EITHER DIRECTION IS IN YOUR HANDS.
MARCH 31
1.) I always assumed the pandemic numbers released by China were deeply flawed. They publicly denied human to human transmission until at least Jan 15th, when anyone with a working brain could tell that was nonsense.
2.) Once the numbers started building in S. Korea during mid February and built up steam by the end of the month, it was obvious by the exponential growth that China’s numbers were pure fiction. Drastically underreported. I was still able to use those rosy numbers to warn friends, readers and family here. Even the fake numbers spelled catastrophe in the U.S.
3.) When Italy and other far more modernized healthcare systems started reporting unchecked exponential growth,(China’s healthcare system looks sleek…and they built a few hospitals in record time, but for the squalid poor masses-vast majority of the nation-the system is anything but modern)—I significantly increased the tone of my warnings.
4.) I tossed China’s data out the window about three weeks ago. Any predictive model based on that data is flawed…in that it paints a far too kind picture of the pandemic’s impact.
I’ve followed Dr. Feigl-Ding for a while…he and several other disease epidemiologists have informed my opinion on the matter from the beginning. He has yet to be wrong about this pandemic.
Over and over again, I’m hearing a new narrative designed to entirely shift the responsibility AND BLAME for the White House’s feeble pandemic response—onto the individual states and the population. Not so fast.
FIRST…coordinating an effective response to a pandemic is entirely the responsibility of the federal government. That’s right out of the Pandemic Playbook still collecting dust somewhere in the White House. This is a national emergency. If a hostile country landed a battalion of their marines on a Florida beach, the federal government wouldn’t defer to the state of Florida to handle the crisis…only stepping in when the states asked for help. This pandemic has ALWAYS BEEN KNOWN BY EXPERTS to pose the same level of national threat to our population, economy and security as a major war. The biggest threat since World War II…are the words being used by economists, the UN and every credible predictive modeler in the world. A lethal, efficient pandemic virus demands a coordinated federal response. The administration botched the initial and ongoing response BADLY. There is no other way to interpret it. Trump said over and over again it was a hoax. So did GOP lawmakers.
I could cite hundreds of examples of how they downplayed it because they didn’t take it seriously or purposefully denied it was happening…for whatever reason. Reelection worries. Democratic hoax. On and on. It’s all recorded and very clear. Trump still denies saying stuff today that he said yesterday. He’s a disaster and his public response has been entirely predictable. What has happened up until now and will happen in the next few months was entirely predictable. I expected nothing else, which is why I started sounding the warning back in February.
He botched whatever could be controlled in a situation like this as badly as he could, and a solid portion of the nation still doesn’t think this is a big deal because of what he’s consistently been saying up until a few days ago. His administration scores a zero for handling what could have been handled under this complex scenario. Fauci and Birx have only recently gotten through to him. That much is painfully clear.
All of that said—In the absence of any coherent or consistent federal guidance/declarations (the case so far), the STATES do have the responsibility to enact and enforce strict measures to mitigate the impact of the pandemic (shelter in place orders) and the POPULATION does has the responsibility to abide by these orders. Several states still haven’t taken effective action. Some have taken none. And too many people don’t seem to understand the gravity of the situation. My guess is that they’re looking for some strong guidance and leadership from the White House—which has been entirely lacking from the start.
History will look back at the Trump administration as EXACTLY what not to do in the face of a pandemic that you could see coming for months.
APRIL 1
WHAT?! Who could have seen this one coming? Other than anyone with a calculator, and the most basic knowledge of disease transmission, who over the past two months has looked back at China’s public claim on January 14 that they found no evidence of human to human transmission and found that a LITTLE HARD TO BELIEVE.
And in about three weeks, when one of our forward deployed aircraft carriers is unable to execute its mission, because even our “top brass” doesn’t seem to understand how the virus works…they’ll relieve everyone else in the chain of command.
I understand that the Theodore Roosevelt is a vital national security asset and taking it out of commission for 3 weeks by evacuating the crew from a packed Petri dish seems drastic, but the same strategies to flatten the curve in a country, state, county, city, household…apply to a 4,000 sailor carrier. At least this commanding officer can go to sleep at night knowing he did everything possible to save the lives of the sailors serving under him.
I’m not sure how anyone in Trump’s administration could catch as much as a cat’s nap these days.
APRIL 3
Unless the definition of the Strategic National Stockpile has changed significantly since I researched it over a decade ago…Nope…the U.S. Public Health Emergency site governing the SNS still states:
“When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance to support their response efforts, the stockpile ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most during an emergency. Organized for scalable response to a variety of public health threats, this repository contains enough supplies to respond to multiple large-scale emergencies simultaneously.”
This is why you don’t put a trust fund baby, faux-failed business person (whose parents’ bribed an elite university to get their middle to low average kid in) and public grifter in charge of a pandemic response. Or anything beyond picking out their shoes for the day. I’m talking about Jared Kushner, though the description also applies to his father-in-law.
Sadly, I think the 240K high end fatality estimate is generous given what I heard yesterday.
The Ministry of Truth speaks. The government just modified the wording on Public Health Emergency page that describes the purpose of OUR National Strategic Stockpile. This is what it stated around 7AM. I copied at pasted this directly from the website.
“When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance to support their response efforts, the stockpile ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most during an emergency. Organized for scalable response to a variety of public health threats, this repository contains enough supplies to respond to multiple large-scale emergencies simultaneously.”
Check out the very convenient difference.
We’ve now reached the point where the White House thinks they can just change reality to fit whatever nonsense they’ve been peddling.
Every word of former Republican strategist Rick Wilson’s article. And he does have a way with words.
“When tested by the fire of crisis, Trump showed us what he’s always been: a weak, spoiled, intellectually vacant conman who has stumbled through a life of betrayal and failure papered over by bullshit and public relations.”
“Trump must face blame for the viral Chernobyl that is rolling over our population now; the one thing you never get back when fighting an epidemic is time. He spent weeks spinning that Coronavirus/COVID-10 was no big deal, and that there was no crisis about to scythe through our nation.”
IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER WHEN DETERMINING QUARANTINE FOR SUSPECTED OR CONFIRMED COVID19 PATIENTS.
As a writer with what might previously (not now) have been considered an unhealthy interest in disease epidemiology, I’ve been following a number of disease epidemiologists on Twitter for quite a while. Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding called this pandemic back long before most of his colleagues. His latest thread suggests a longer quarantine period than 14 days for anyone potentially exposed to COVID19.
He also points out what we’ve known since the end of February. Infected patients can shed virus for several days or even a few weeks after recovering.
“Recent studies from China & Europe showed that people can shed #COVID19 virus well after recovery. One study- researchers found cases shedding the virus for a median of 20 days after they got sick, half of them were shedding for even longer periods – the longest was 37 days.”
This report underscores how little we know about this novel coronavirus, and the critical importance of giving science, the medical field and disease epidemiologists the proper interval of time to study the virus and adequately inform/advise publicly elected officials about a responsible course of action moving forward.
If you’re looking for something to read today, may I suggest 80 pages of an email chain started by the chief medical officer at the Department of Homeland Security, Dr. Duane C. Caneva— “to provide thoughts, concerns, raise issues, share information across various colleagues responding to Covid-19,” including medical experts and doctors from the Health and Human Services Department, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Homeland Security Department, the Veterans Affairs Department, the Pentagon and other federal agencies tracking the historic health emergency.
The emails look very similar to many of the discussions I had with a core group of friends who tracked the pandemic since January.
The inescapable conclusion from these emails?
ALL THE WAY BACK TO JANUARY—EVERYONE AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF OUR PUBLIC HEALTHCARE AND DISEASE RESPONSE SYSTEM KNEW THAT THE PANDEMIC WAS GOING TO HIT THE U.S. VERY HARD.
AND THEY REPEATEDLY WARNED THE WHITE HOUSE AND CDC THAT NOT NEARLY ENOUGH WAS BEING DONE.
AND ALMOST NOTHING WAS DONE UNTIL IT WAS FAR TOO LATE.
APRIL 13
I GUARANTEE THIS WILL BE THE FUNNIEST (in a grim way) THING YOU WATCH ALL MONTH. Peter Navarro, White House economic advisor, challenges 60 Minutes on their pandemic history. This guy is actually in charge of shit!
What’s even funnier, is that Navarro actually sent the WH at least one memo in January essentially warning that the coronavirus would kill millions and cost the economy trillions if we didn’t take it seriously.
You can’t make this stuff up! As a fiction writer, I’m upstaged daily.
APRIL 14
I am continually asked in public and in private…why don’t I move on? Why keep pointing the finger at the White House? I’m told…this is so unproductive…we need to move on.
The RED DAWN EMAILS superimposed over the entirely incompetent, and quite frankly criminally negligent, response by the White House embody my answer.
When I wrote a frighteningly similar scenario in my first novel…back in 2008-2010, I scoured every document produced on how our government would respond to a pandemic. Most of them were written by the same government that intended to implement them…with input from hundreds of experts. Many of them very familiar names. Fauci. Lawler. The list goes on. These dedicated experts have been doing this for decades.
The conclusion I drew was that we had a solid plan…so I wrote that into my novel. Why would I expect anything different? You open the documents early and start the process. The plan was designed that way for a reason. Time is of the essence in a pandemic.
In my novel, the U.S. government did the best it could with the properly vetted plan that actually existed and still exists today, but because I didn’t want a boring novel where everything worked out just fine, I let the virus run amok.
The difference between my novel and todays reality…is that the White House ignored the pandemic playbooks and the experts…and THEY LET THE VIRUS RUN AMOK.
APRIL 14
I’ve received some good questions and healthy criticism regarding the RED DAWN email participants frustration with the European travel ban announced on March 11. You can see a condensed version of their exchange below. Dr. Lawler is particularly outspoken.
To understand their frustration, you have to pour through their emails to see what they were actively recommending for more than 30 days prior to the travel ban AND you also have to understand the early phases of an effective pandemic response. CONTAINMENT and MITIGATION.
CONTAINMENT is one of the earliest phases, and all actions during that phase are designed to prevent or minimize the intrusion of the virus into a population. When CONTAINMENT fails, you switch into MITIGATION. For a good look at MITIGATION, check out California and Washington State. By all measures, they should have a catastrophe on their hands, but they don’t. They made the shift in key locations at the right time. On to the rest of the story.
The White House’s travel ban aimed at China could be classified as a good attempt at CONTAINMENT, if more than 40,000 travelers hadn’t been allowed to travel from China to the U.S. after it was enacted. The virus was undoubtedly already here before the ban, particularly up and down the West Coast, but likely not in the wild numbers we ended up seeing on the East Coast.
Fast forward almost forty days to the European travel ban. By this point, experts had been flailing their hands and arms trying to get the White House to shift from CONTAINMENT TO MITIGATION. Based on those forty days of data (plus data from China) and all of their expertise, they correctly estimated that the virus was already widespread throughout the United States. To them, containment efforts like international travel bans were pointless, unless the same bans were enacted on state levels.
Their concern was two-fold, 1.) the WH was still focused on CONTAINMENT instead of domestic mitigation (closures, PPE distribution, readying hospitals, shelter in place orders). The experts had been pushing these measures since the middle of February. The wrong focus would prove costly, and they knew it. 2.) the travel ban (which didn’t include Americans) would bring Americans home in droves from Europe. We all saw the scenes at O’Hare and various airports. The ban dropped a virus bomb on the country, on top of the what was already brewing.
Forensic genome tracking proved that the majority of NYC cases originated in Europe and had been circulating since mid-February. The experts didn’t need this forensic evidence to predict that was the case. It was a basic pandemic assumption that anyone with pandemic knowledge would make.
Which is why they started pushing for strong MITIGATION efforts across the nation starting in mid-February.
RIGHT NOW, THE PANDEMIC CURVE MAY BE FLATTENING..BUT IMAGINE HOW IT WOULD HAVE LOOKED IF YOU BACKED UP THE STATE MITIGATION EFFORTS ROUGHLY ONE MONTH AGO.
This isn’t a HIND SIGHT IS 20/20 SITUATION. We are where we are because expertise and meticulous planning for a pandemic was ignored until it was WAY TOO LATE.
BTW, I’d love to see a scientist or two on the OPEN UP THE COUNTRY TRIBUNAL. They might be able to make a suggestion or two.
APRIL 15
A sobering but hopeful read.
“Everyone wants to know when this will end,” said Devi Sridhar, a public-health expert at the University of Edinburgh. “That’s not the right question. The right question is: How do we continue?”
“I think people haven’t understood that this isn’t about the next couple of weeks,” said Michael Osterholm, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota. “This is about the next two years.”
It’s a fairly long article and you may need to read it a few times for the principles and message to sink in (I read it several times)…BUT IT’S IMPERATIVE THAT WE ALL GIVE IT A SHOT.
It captures what I’ve felt on a gut level since January, but admittedly, couldn’t put into proper words or context—because I was focused on epidemiological models, WHICH ONLY GET US SO FAR. NOT FAR ENOUGH.
Also, because I’m not as smart as these engineers and scientists…and I haven’t studied complex systems and risk engineering for decades. In other words, I was at a slight disadvantage.
(For the record, some epidemiologists got this right. I know, because I follow their work.)
***”What is happening right now is not because all the epidemiologists and virologists around the world are wrong, but because they’re asked to make decisions and construct models about something they don’t know nearly enough about.”
***”….if you have a disease that is both contagious and deadly, you don’t -have to- first wait and (build a model to) see how deadly and contagious it is, as an epidemiologist is wont to do, you can act right off the bat. Of course the scientists at the WHO and various government know this basic stuff, but they still haven’t acted accordingly.”
***”It will cost something to reduce mobility in the short term, but to fail do so will eventually cost everything—if not from this event, then one in the future. Outbreaks are inevitable, but an appropriately precautionary response can mitigate systemic risk to the globe at large. But policy- and decision-makers must act swiftly and avoid the fallacy that to have an appropriate respect for uncertainty in the face of possible irreversible catastrophe amounts to “paranoia,” or the converse a belief that nothing can be done.”
***”When one deals with deep uncertainty, both governance and precaution require us to hedge for the worst. While risk-taking is a business that is left to individuals, collective safety and systemic risk are the business of the state. Failing that mandate of prudence by gambling with the lives of citizens is a professional wrongdoing that extends beyond academic mistake; it is a violation of the ethics of governing. The obvious policy left now is a lockdown, with overactive testing and contact tracing: follow the evidence from China and South Korea rather than thousands of error-prone computer codes.”
APRIL 17
One final thought for Friday, before I sign off. The retail and public consumer “economy” will not return to close to its original levels until this virus is mostly eradicated from our lives. Period. Contrary to what we are being led to believe by a ghoulish minority…many people either directly or indirectly understand what they need to do to proactively manage their risk of infection in a death plague.
“OpenTable bookings had declined 70% before US restaurants were closed.”
“Swedish movie theaters are open but revenues are down 90%.”
“When will government open up the economy?” is the wrong question. Open doors and no customers is not an economy!”
TIME TO SWITCH GEARS and shift pandemic related efforts in a different direction. Facebook served as an effective platform to sound the alarm and help friends, readers and the general public SOMEWHAT prepare for the initial impact of COVID19.
As time moved on, we all found ourselves in what I call THE IN BETWEEN. Still looking back at mistakes that can’t be undone, while trying to focus on preventing mistakes tomorrow and getting on with our “new” lives. And when I say tomorrow…I truly mean THE NEXT DAY.
I FEEL LIKE WE’VE ENTERED A NEW PHASE, WHERE MOST OF OUR ENERGY needs to be focused on the future. MOST. NOT ALL. This doesn’t mean forgetting or ignoring the entirely inexcusable and ongoing lack of leadership from the White House.
IT MEANS SPENDING LESS ENERGY ON WHAT HAS ALREADY PASSED AND MORE ON WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE MOVING FORWARD.
I didn’t just come up with this “idea” today. I’ve been working on this with a likeminded group of friends for the past week to create–> https://covid19-trustinscience.com A STAND ALONE RESOURCE (AWAY FROM FACEBOOK) TO PRESENT THE MOST UPDATED, ACCURATE INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ONGOING PANDEMIC CRISIS—UPDATED DAILY.
We’ll use Facebook to give you a quick, commentary free summary of updates.
You’ll be able to easily sort through several categories to get what you want out of it.
AND YES, the site will still include CRITICAL ARTICLES. We will actively DEBUNK the latest nonsense…if AND ASSUREDLY WHEN it arises. PLEASE SHARE THIS FAR AND WIDE!
As I shift more and more from a WARN to WATCH posture (I’ve always been watching), I’d like to share some resources you can use to keep an eye on big picture and local developments:
I was going to lead this post with something even snarkier like–>
SCREW IT. JUST TELL ALL THE BOOMERS THIS IS NO WORSE THAN THE FLU AND THAT THEY SHOULD ALL GO ON CRUISES OR VISIT VENICE OR THAT LICKING EVERY CAR DOOR HANDLE IN THE AMC THEATER PARKING LOT BUILDS UP YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM—but why should I replicate the valiant efforts I’ve already witnessed to exterminate what’s left of the Greatest Generation and Boomers? I mean, the nerve of these old people! Why can’t they just die from COVID19 like they do from the seasonal flu—in the thousands! Do they think they’re special?
I DO: Want to know why? Hint, hint…they’re our parents, grandparents and if you’re lucky…great-grandparents.
YOU OWE IT THEM (and yourself, and your partner, and your kids) TO READ THE ACCOUNT BELOW FROM A DOCTOR ON THE FRONT LINES IN ITALY. I’ve heard similar reports from other doctors interviewed on NPR or other news agencies.
IF THE ARTICLE IS TOO LONG FOR YOU, HERE’S THE BOTTOM LINE:
1.) What’s happening in Italy is unlike anything these doctors have ever seen. THIS IS NOT JUST THE FLU. The flu doesn’t crush healthcare systems in a few weeks. The Lombardy region is industrialized and the system is decent by all standards. Not perfect, but let’s face it…neither is ours.
2.) The elderly (70 and above) are AT MUCH HIGHER RISK of permanent organ damage or death from COVID19 than the seasonal flu. Preparing now for the scenario described below will save thousands of their lives.
3.) Young people have been hospitalized and put in the ICU, in much lower numbers, but on to #3.
4.) ICU beds and critical care equipment (ventilators) in Italy are at capacity. Your 8 year old who develops symptoms will not get a bed here once they are filled by the older people who will present severe symptoms far sooner. TRIAGE will go into effect. Your child is very, very likely to survive by being sent home with care instructions…the old person isn’t. Same for you if you’re under 60. Hospitals will prioritize those most at risk. That’s TRIAGE. One of the Italian doctors interviewed stated that only under the most unusual circumstances will SOMEONE UNDER 65-without complications-BE ADMITTED TO THE HOSPITAL.
5.) The US has one of the unhealthiest populations in the world. Italians have an average life expectancy FIVE years longer than Americans. That’s significant. Tons of reasons why, but there’s no point in getting into that. It’s fair to say that your average Italian boomer is healthier than a U.S. boomer. COVID19 will hit our older population just as hard or harder—IF WE ALL DON’T ACT RESPONSIBLY.
DON’T PANIC. JUST TAKE SOME BASIC PRECAUTIONS. THE MOST IMPORTANT BEING——SOCIAL DISTANCING IN ITS MANY FORMS.
WARNING: THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A POPULAR POST WITH SOME.
THE SIMPLE ANSWER IN TWO PARTS:
1.) You and your loved ones will have a far better chance of remaining uninfected by COVID19. 2.) As it starts to become even more obvious that COVID19 is here to stay for a while, this may be your last chance to acquire these supplies (I don’t have data to support this one, but just take a look at the news).
Is this panic or fear based? No. It’s data based.
The first thing we need to do is DROP the mantra “BUT THIS ISN’T AS BAD AS THE SEASONAL FLU!”
It isn’t, YET…but scientific data and disease epidemiologists says it WILL BE…or at the very least IT SHOULD BE. Let’s hope math and the experts are wrong. Or as a good Marine buddy of mine once said, “you can wish in one hand and shit in the other…and see which one fills up first.” You get the not so pretty picture.
THE SLIGHTLY MORE COMPLICATED ANSWER IN MANY PARTS:
1.) COVID19 IS NOT GOING AWAY ANY TIME SOON. It’s Reproductive Number (R0 or “R-naught”) is somewhere between 1.4 and 4, which is consistent with historical coronaviruses. R0 is the number of patients each patient infects on their own. An R0 BELOW 1 means the disease dies out. An R0 AT 1 means it infects one person and the disease grows at a steady rate. An R0 OVER 1 means the disease spreads exponentially. Season flu has an R0 of 1.2…WITH A VACCINE ADMINISTERED AHEAD OF TIME AND DURING THE FLU SEASON! COVID19’s R0 is most likely double or triple the seasonal flu, and there is NO VACCINE.
1A.) BONUS! Infected people typically shed the virus (directly give it to you or give it to a door handle that gives it to you) for 7 DAYS before showing symptoms. Some can remain asymptomatic for 14 days…higher time periods are suspected. ALSO, a study released today in the LANCET indicated that the mean number of days a patient remains contagious in ICU is 20 days in survivors. 37 days was the longest observed. This is not like your typical cold or sinus thing, where we all think “once I’m showing symptoms, I’m not contagious.”
2.) COVID19 IS MORE LETHAL THAN THE SEASONAL FLU. The latest data points coming out of China (44K patient analysis) and Italy did not dampen the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) as many had hoped. Data confirmed a fairly steady 2.3% overall CFR. That’s 23X higher than seasonal flu at .1%. The older you are, or sicker you are, the worse the scenario. If you’re older than 60, or have comorbid diseases (heart disease, diabetes, etc), you are anywhere from 36-148X more likely to die from COVID19 than the seasonal flu.
2A.) BONUS! 37,000 Americans died last year from the flu…and WE HAD A FLU VACCINE (admittedly influenza vaccines are not perfect). We will not have a vaccine for COVID19 for at least a year, maybe longer.
2B.) CYNICAL TAKE. Hey…maybe only the same number of Americans will die from COVID19 as the flu. WHAT A MORBID THOUGHT…one I see repeated day in and day out. One I’ve now seen both the leader of the US and UK state publicly. SEE the part where I say BUY TOILET PAPER and other stuff NOW, because with our leaders spouting this attitude, I can assure you they do not have your best interest at heart. Listen to the experts please.
3.) COVID19 IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NUMBERS SUGGEST. This is a math based theory.I’m not going to get into the math, but the bottom line is that we haven’t been testing for COVID19 in any wide scale manner. As testing picks up, we’ll start to see a glimpse of the real numbers. WE HAVE TO FACE IT. COVID19 has been here since the first infected travelers got off the plane from Asia. We don’t know when that happened, but since China has been fighting the outbreak since December, it’s fair to say that the first infected passengers arrived in January. TWO MONTHS AGO. If you understand exponential growth, you’ll quickly understand why the currently reported numbers are likely off by a magnitude of ten or more.
SO…WHAT WAS I SAYING EARLIER? Oh yeah. It might be prudent to prepare for a short (2-4 week) period of time when you can stay away from the general public…or anyone outside of your circle of sanitized trust. Make sure the vulnerable in your family or in your neighborhood are similarly situated. Significant social distancing by the population (to include self-quarantine/isolation) will be the only way to drop that R0 below or close enough to 1 to slow this thing down to a manageable level. Please plan accordingly, in a non-panicked manner…before it is too late. AND an updated reading list for those interested:
For those of you that made it this far…YES, I should be writing a book right now, but I’m trying to keep you and your peeps alive and well. And I’m happy to do it.
As you can imagine, I’ve digested hundreds of articles over the past few weeks related to the coronavirus threat. Several have stood out as well-balanced and informative. Giving these articles a few minutes of your time will put you on the right track to “Prepare without fear. Prepare with intelligence. Prepare with benevolence.”— Dr. Hal Cohen.
As of yesterday, I can no longer individually reply to requests for information or opinions regarding the COVID-19 virus. The number of emails and messages has become overwhelming. That said, I don’t want to leave readers and friends hanging, so I’ve put together the key information, predictions and recommendations that I’ve gathered or formed over the past few weeks.
BEFORE I GET STARTED—THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO PANIC, but it is definitely time to take a few key steps to avoid panic later.
Disclaimer: I’m not a scientific expert in pandemic epidemiology…or anything for that matter. I exhaustively researched pandemics and healthcare plans to address pandemics for my first novel, THE JAKARTA PANDEMIC (TJP), which was published in 2010. TJP was one of the first modern novels to address the average citizen’s experience during a lethal pandemic, from the arrival of the virus to a sensationalized breakdown of society. The virus I “brought to life” was far worse than anything we’ve seen in recorded history. That’s how you sell fiction. I don’t think we’ll ever see anything even remotely as deadly and destructive as the virus I created for that novel. Why tell you this? Because we’re not dealing with this kind of scenario with COVID-19—BUT WE’RE STILL FACING A UNIQUELY LETHAL CRISIS. Let me explain.
WHAT ARE WE ACTUALLY DEALING WITH?
CONTAGIOUSNESS:
COVID-19 is very likely twice as contagious as the seasonal flu, spread by DROPLET CONTACT(cough, sneeze or nose/mouth wipe that ends up on a surface and is then transmitted when someone else touches the surface…or if someone sneezes/coughs right into your face) and quite possibly some AIRBORNE CONTACT(aerosolized droplets from coughs and sneezes float around for a while and land in your mouth, eyes or other mucus membranes). Airborne contact has not been scientifically demonstrated, but the fact that it spreads faster than seasonal flu has experts suspected an airborne component.
MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY:
Chinese epidemiological reports based on current infection data puts the case fatality rate (CFR) at around 2%. This may change, but experts think it will hover right around that number. Seasonal flu has a CFR around .1%…so COVID-19 is 10-20X more lethal if contracted. On top of that, 20% of those infected require critical care (ICU level) to survive. This is important to remember.
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND CASE FATALITY BREAKDOWN:
Noted Harvard epidemiologist and many other experts expect 40-70% of world population to be exposed to COVID-19 within a year.
UNDER 50 Years old—.2 to .4 CFR (2-4X greater than seasonal flu. Not so bad?)
This is rough guess stuff based on data presented above and expert opinion (not mine).
This will not be an apocalyptic scenario like any of my books. We’re looking at a slower burn scenario with limited, but significant impacts on society and daily life.
The food supply/power grid/water supply systems are unlikely to fail. I just don’t see that happening. What I do see happening is a brief, intense run on the stores (a few weeks), which will empty the shelves temporarily. Food will return, but daily essentials like toilet paper (think of what you resupply every few weeks), OTC medicines, prescription medicines will constantly be in demand. Picture a grocery store and how much shelf space is dedicated to different classes of items.
You will need to prepare for a 1-2 month period of general, but not complete “shut down.” Businesses closed. Restaurants shut. Day care and schools closed. Work places closed? THIS WILL BE THE MOST FRIGHTENING TIME—FOR GOOD REASON. You will want to avoid or severely limit public exposure. YOU NEED TO PREPARE FOR THIS! Can you remain mostly at home for a month or two, without resupplying? If you have to go out, can you keep yourself safe from infection and panic induced crime?
The closure of schools, daycares and work WILL SERIOUSLY STRAIN financially insecure families, if not ruin them financially. YOU MUST PLAN FOR THIS. Talk with employers ahead of time. Whatever it takes. This won’t last forever, but too many people can’t afford to take a single unpaid day off from work TODAY! I can’t understate the importance of this aspect.
Don’t count on the healthcare system to help you. The U.S. has 1 million hospital beds…only a fraction of those are capable of ICU level care. If 20% of half of our population requires critical care—that’s around 30 MILLION very sick people without a bed when the pandemic music stops!
WHAT CAN YOU DO TODAY?
Do whatever is within your means to prepare for a 1-2 month period of minimal public contact. Food. Medicine. Home essentials.FOCUS ON STUFF YOU CAN YOU USE EVEN IF COVID-19 DOESN’T MATERIALIZE. This is the key to readiness. Everything I buy will be used no matter what within a matter of a few years.
Prepare for your kids to be home. Even if the schools don’t close, do you really want them at school? The reported fatality rate is VERY LOW for kids, but they can still bring the virus home to YOU!
Start talking to your employer today about COVID-19 plans. Better to get the conversation rolling now, then to pull an absence that cost you your job or a few weeks of pay.
Stockpile FLU mitigating medications.CLICK LINK TO SEE LIST. Most of us will come down with nasty flu symptoms that are not life threatening, but can be very uncomfortable…and possibly get worse if left untreated.
Stockpile disinfectant supplies like bleach based sprays/solutions, disinfectant wipes for door handles/cars/shopping carts, hand sanitizer, and masks (any kind…to prevent wiping mouth with contaminated hand in public).
Stockpile IMMUNE SYSTEM boosting supplies like Multivitamins, extra Vitamin C, Elderberry in any form, Oregano Oil…lots of stuff out there that can help with this. Stay rested. Eat Healthy.
SUMMARY:
Let’s hope this doesn’t get nearly as bad as the experts suspect—BUT LET’S TAKE SOME STEPS NOW TO EASE EVERYONE’S FEARS AND BURDENS IF COVID-19 CONTINUES TO SPREAD.
This topic often comes up in conversation, and I often lead with “I don’t read nearly as much as I did before I started writing.” While that may be true, after doing a little back-tracking into 2019, I came up with a fairly healthy list of books that I somehow found the time to read.
I’d like to share that list with you, to include a few words about the titles or series. I’ll also link these titles to Amazon if you want to dig deeper. No affiliate income is derived from these links. I probably missed a few books…as I created the list, I thought of more.
LITERARY FICTION:
We Were the Lucky Ones by Georgia Hunter – Heart wrenching, based on the true story about one Polish-Jewish family’s epic struggle to survive the World War II. Compelling from star to finish.
YES…I need to expand this section in 2020!
HORROR:
Head Full of Ghosts by Paul Tremblay – Modern day, sublime version of The Exorcist…and so much more. The end will blow you away.
The Outsider by Stephen King – King at his best. Read the book and then watch the HBO series. They compliment each other perfectly.
The Institute by Stephen King – Loved this one. Had an epic feel. The end will leave you thinking hard for days to come.
We Sang In The Dark by Joe Hart – (Not yet released) This one left me afraid of the dark for a while. Joe has a way of doing that with his novels.
THRILLER (Any subgenre):
Recursion by Blake Crouch – Mind-blowing. Just get it right now and take this incredible journey.
Don’t Make a Sound by T.R. Ragan – (Not yet released) Takes the revenge thriller to the next level in a gritty and chillingly realistic hunt for a killer.
Origami Man by Matthew FitzSimmons – (Not yet released) Hard to beat the first four books in the Gibson Vaughn series, but FitzSimmons does it handily. Highly recommend the series!
A Gambler’s Jury by Victor Methos – Underdog, scrappy lawyer caught up in vicious conspiracy. Edgar nomination for Best Novel.
The Killer’s Wife by Victor Methos – Serial killers and a haunted prosecutor. Twists and turns galore.
Pray for the Girlby Joseph Souza – Edgy, tense…will keep you guessing until the end.
The Chain by Adrian McKinty – One of the most inventive premises I’ve read in a long time. Unputdownable.
Green Sun by Kent Anderson – A hypnotic cop thriller set in early 1980’s Oakland, California. Couldn’t put it down.
The Eighth Sister (Charles Jenkins Book 1) by Robert Dugoni – Flawlessly executed espionage novel and white-knuckle journey through the byzantine world of modern intelligence.
The Last Agent by Robert Dugoni – (Not yet released) Book 2 in Charles Jenkins series. Knocks it out of the park with a full throttle cat and mouse spy story.
The Killer Collective by Barry Eisler – A mashup of Eisler’s most iconic characters in full-tilt covert operations thriller.
Dark Tomorrow (Lisa Tanchik Book 2) by Reece Hirsch – (Not yet released) Cyber-espionage and warfare amidst a high stakes federal manhunt for a murderous sleeper agent.
The Spider Heist by Jason Kasper – Not your ordinary bank heist book. Not by a long shot. High octane action and twisty plot.
The David Rivers Thrillers (Books 1-5) by Jason Kasper – Gritty, brutal, unapologetic action by a former Green Beret. Burned through these books one after another.
Murder Board (Boston Crime Thriller Book 1) by Brian Shea – Brian Shea is the real deal. A veteran detective turned thriller author…It truly doesn’t get any better.
Bar at the End of the World by Tom Abrahams – Tom takes a killer premise and builds a dystopian world like you’ve never seen before.
Winter World(The Long Winter Trilogy Book 1) by A.G. Riddle – Classic A.G. Riddle. End of the world story that takes reader across space and time.
Solar War by A.G. Riddle – Book 2 in the Long Winter Trilogy. Riddle does what he does best…pushes the story to unimaginable places.
Our War by Craig DiLouie – A second civil war burns out of control across America. Brilliant rendering of a worst case scenario that feels all too real.
Sons of War by Nicholas Sansbury Smith – (Not yet released) As always, Smith reboots the post-apocalyptic genre with a unique story of a societal collapse.
The Path Between Worlds by Paul Antony Jones – Epic, saga like potential set in a world beyond imagination, but eerily familiar.
Forward Collection (short stories by Andy Weir, Blake Crouch, NK Jemisin, Paul Tremblay, Veronica Roth and Amor Towles) – Take your pick…you can’t go wrong with this powerhouse group of authors.
The Second Sleep by Robert Harris – Eerie from start to finish. A slow burn, dystopian masterpiece.
NON-FICTION:
Red Notice by Bill Browder – A sweeping indictment of Russian corruption and malice. Fast paced, expertly crafted. A must read.
Bad Blood by John Carreyrou – Investigative masterpiece chronicling the rise and fall of Theranous, a nebulous and sinister Silicon Valley startup.
The Road to Unfreedom by Timothy Snyder –Hard hitting book. “A stunning new chronicle of the rise of authoritarianism from Russia to Europe and America.“
The Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis – “Masterfully and vividly unspools the consequences if the people given control over our government have no idea how it works.“
Book 2 in the Ryan Decker series is now available internationally at Amazon (see links below book cover) in ebook, paper and audiobook formats.
A Border Patrol murder exposes a high-level conspiracy in USA Today bestselling author Steven Konkoly’s explosive thriller.
After exposing and dismantling a deep-state conspiracy that nearly destroyed his life, Ryan Decker finds his covert skills have put him on the radar of influential Senator Steele. Now Steele needs his help. Two patrol agents were killed in a bizarre explosion near the US-Mexico border—and the evidence doesn’t line up with the official story.
Enlisted by Steele to run an undercover, off-the-books investigation, Decker and his partner, Harlow, head to the border town of Tecate. But when they’re caught in an ambush, Decker realizes they’ve stumbled onto something far more dangerous than any of them understood.
The cover-up is rooted deep in the Department of Defense itself. Fearful for their own lives and unable to trust anyone outside their small circle of skilled associates, Decker and Harlow set in motion a risky plan to stop a criminal conspiracy.
US AND INTERNATIONAL LINKS BELOW! Available at AMAZON in ebook, hard copy, hard cover and audiobook form.
WOW! It has been over a year since I last posted here. Crazy that more than a year has passed since the last Steven Konkoly book. I promise I won’t make you wait that long again. That said, I think you’ll find the long wait to have been well worth it.
THE RESCUE has arrived, featuring Ryan Decker, Harlow Mackenzie and a cast of memorable characters that early readers have thoroughly enjoyed. Don’t take my word for it! Over 600 reviews with a 4.6 out of 5 average speak for THE RESCUE.
US AND INTERNATIONAL LINKS BELOW! Available at AMAZON in ebook, hard copy, hard cover and audiobook form.
SOMETHING MERCILESS WATCHES OVER THE OUTBREAK–GUIDING ITS COURSE.
Having narrowly survived the KILL BOX, HOT ZONE’s hardened survivors and their KILL BOX allies separate to pursue different objectives–outside of the Indianapolis quarantine zone.
For David Olson, that means bringing his son south, to the safe haven of his parents’ home–far away from the infected cities. Eric Larsen takes him up on the offer to rest and heal at the house, before departing on the long journey to find his family in Colorado.
For Rich and his secretive black ops team, that means transporting Dr. Chang and Dr. Hale to a secure facility out east, where they will join the nation’s few surviving bioweapons researchers–with the hopes of pinpointing the source of the virus and possibly developing a vaccine.
Neither group will get very far, before the true face of the evil controlling the Zulu Virus arrives–tempting them with irresistible opportunities.
DANGEROUS OPPORTUNITIES, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SWEEP THEM RIGHT INTO A LETHAL FIRESTORM
A LETHAL BIOWEAPON HAS BEEN RELEASED ACROSS AMERICA.
With their daring escape plan thwarted at the last possible moment, HOT ZONE’s motley band of survivors faces a worst-case scenario. Forced to take refuge near the epicenter of the bioweapons outbreak, deep inside in a city gone mad, THEIR TIME IS RUNNING OUT.
Unable to slow or adequately contain the infected population, the government has triggered KILL BOX, a desperate and merciless contingency protocol.
HOT ZONE’s survivors have less than twenty-four hours to escape the KILL BOX.
The Zulu Virus Chronicles places you at ground zero during a chillingly realistic, insidious “event.” This is a story about regular people from different walks of life coming together to survive an unthinkable disaster.
If you follow me on Facebook, or occasionally check for my latest release on Amazon, you’ve probably noticed that my books look different from time to time. If you stalk my books (I don’t mind that at all!), you might wonder if I’m addicted to changing book covers.
Since publishing The Jakarta Pandemic over five years ago, I’ve changed the covers for every book published at least twice. The older the book, the more change they’ve seen. While it is absolutely true that I LOVE NEW BOOK COVERS, I can assure you a lot more thought goes into the changes than satisfying a potentially expensive addiction. Instead of a didactic explanation of the general process, I’ll walk you through the thought process for the books that have seen the most change. The Black Flagged books have undergone the most dramatic changes over the years. When I first published Black Flagged, I hadn’t decided if the characters and plot would continue in a series. Frankly, I had no idea if the books would sell! With that in mind, Jeroen ten Berge created a standalone cover, which remains my favorite to this day. There’s something about this cover that draws me back, over and over again.
Despite my love affair with the original cover, we decided to change it when I committed to a three book series. Jeroen suggested a uniquely branded look across the books, resulting in the covers that adorned the series for the longest stretch of time to date. The continuity of the covers, forming a flag, is a brilliant touch. Unfortunately, I hadn’t anticipated the forth book (Black Flagged Vektor), so we couldn’t fit it into this particular cover stretch.
Instead, Jeroen created a new look for Book 4. It has the same feel, but draws VEKTOR out with an eerie green color. These covers represented the series nearly 2 years.
The next set of changes resulted from a simple need to shake up the series. It was time. Repackaging the books breathed a new life into the series, as new readers discovered a series they may have passed up before. The books took on a new life with a more technothriller oriented look
Flash forward a year! I learned some interesting lessons participating in a few Amazon sponsored advertisement programs. Amazon does not like to mass advertise books with guns on the covers, so why cut myself out of that opportunity? We changed things up a bit. The new covers also coincided with a purposeful rebranding of the series to shift the title of the first book from Black Flagged to Black Flagged Alpha, and we added some iconic genre related images.
I haven’t done one of these in a while, particularly due to time constraints, but I couldn’t help showcasing the writing talents of a featured author in The Perseid Collapse Series Kindle World. I was very excited to hear that A.R. Shaw would contribute a novella…here’s why. Forgive me if this review is a little rusty.
The China Pandemic (Book 1) and The Cascade Preppers (Book 2) spring from the post-apocalyptic tale of Graham Morgan, a sturdy, even-keeled survivor of a lethal, quick-killing pandemic that sweeps 98% of the world’s population off the map in the span of weeks. Graham has just buried his wife and father, finding himself without purpose, until a gift is bestowed upon him—the unexpected stewardship of a young child. With the promise to guard the child “like his own” recently forged, Graham departs on a journey to reach his family’s empty lake house in the rural Northwest, and the perceived safe haven of a secluded locale.
Needless to say, his journey and the following trials are not for the faint of heart. A.R. Shaw strikes a nice balance between menace and the post-apocalyptic environment that would ensue after 98% of the people essentially disappeared. Supplies are still available, to include food, medicine, and essential materials, and there’s an unnerving quiet blanketing the landscape. Very unsettling, because getting to those supplies often proves dangerous, and as a reader, you will cringe any time Graham’s crew sets out to scavenge. Shaw adds an unexpected, and often overlooked threat in this story…I won’t spoil it for you.
Shaw also embeds a high degree of survivalist realism. Emergency first-aid is featured prominently (not for the squeamish), while home remedies and extensive survival craft is solidly locked around the framework of an exciting, fast paced story. Fast paced, but not exhausting. A.R. Shaw gives you plenty of breathers, filled with raw human emotion and well crafted dialogue. Graham’s expanded crew spends a balanced amount of time cramped into tight quarters, and Shaw fleshes this out perfectly. But don’t get comfortable in the warm confines of the cabin, because just when you let your guard down…let’s just say that the author is not afraid to put her characters in harm’s way.
Cascade Preppers (Book 2) picks up shortly after the shocking conclusion to Book 1, sharing the series focus with a prepper-colony located across the lake. I don’t want to say more about the interaction between Graham’s group and the Cascade Preppers, but I will say that Shaw has created a fascinatingly unique prepper-camp, complete with detailed description of their operation, rules, society…it’s truly a blast to read about the camp. “Reading” doesn’t do it justice. Though the characters, the reader gets to live and breathe camp life. Shaw has put a ton of thought into their setup. This isn’t your typical bug-out location or compound. The Cascade Preppers have been hard at work for years preparing for a disaster like The China Pandemic. This camp provides an ideal backdrop for the series.
Once you dig into these novels, you’ll see why I’m excited to have A.R. Shaw onboard. Head over to her blog to learn more about what she has planned for The Perseid Collapse World, and book 3 in her series, The Last Infidels.
AND DON”T BE FOOLED BY HER PLEASANT COVERS! Trust me, there’s plenty of mayhem inside.
Spread the End of the World cheer with deeply discounted titles by yours truly!
***Make sure to keep reading to claim your own special gift***
From December 15th thru the 21st, all of my post-apocalyptic, prepper-themed titles will be on sale at Amazon for 99 CENTS each.
Consider giving them as gifts to friends, family OR neighbors you want to scare away during the next major disaster. When you click the links, look in the upper right corner for “Give as a Gift.” You can even select the delivery date to fill the favorite reader in your life with exciting reads on Christmas Day or any of the days of Hanukkah.
Remember, the victims…I mean recipients, can read these on pretty much any device out there (tablets, phones, computers, Kindles)…and they won’t know you only paid 99 CENTS! They’ll check out the books on Christmas morning and say, wow, [INSERT NAME} sent me five books valued at $25, and all I got them was a $5 Starbucks card. Guess who will get a $10 Starbucks card next year?
I wouldn’t ask you to buy my books as gifts unless I was willing to do something for you in return.Please join my mailing list, and you will receive a gift (significant Christmas discount) announcement in the sign up confirmation email. Hint: Dispatches from The Perseid Collapse (Book 4) will be released in early February. JOIN MY MAILING LIST
Robert Bidinotto (pictured left) and I share a little history. Our first novels were featured by Amazon (in the same promotion) during a CyberMonday sale three years ago, essentially launching our book writing careers. Robert’s political/espionage thriller HUNTER sold untold thousands of copies. It became an overnight sensation, and rightfully so. We’ve kept in touch over the years, sharing strategies and comparing notes. I was thrilled to hear that Robert would feature me in an interview, adding me to an incredible list of authors that have “sat around the table” with him. Check out his interview page HERE. Brad Thor, Vince Flynn, Lee Child, J. Carson Black, Ian Graham, Allan Leverone…this list goes on. Well, I’ve rambled on long enough.
Probably not. If you have, it’s most likely because U2 and dozens of artists have just recorded a new version of the original 1980’s Band Aid charity song “Do they know it’s Christmas?” to raise money for Ebola victims. THAT’S IT! IT’S OVER FOR NOW! Not so fast.
Ebola (for now…never say never) has remained squarely an African problem, and one month after the massive Ebola fear hype in the U.S., most Americans have returned to their pre-Ebola scare lives. Some of us have a few more sterile gloves and N95 masks than before, but that’s not a bad thing. An influenza pandemic is a far more likely scenario to affect us. There’s a great fiction book written by someone I know that explains exactly how that might happen. 😉
Good news for everyone.Right? Of course, but this article falls squarely in the hindsight is 20/20 category, and fails to look forward. AT ALL. The opinion piece derides the fear that gripped the U.S., pointing out how the system in place worked. You know, the ten systems progressively implemented after the CDC and White House couldn’t answer why and how they couldn’t prevent individuals infected with Ebola from entering the U.S. to infect others (a very low number, thankfully.). The article even quotes Dr. Spencer (the infected NYC doctor), who stated:
“My early detection, reporting and now recovery from Ebola speaks to the effectiveness of the protocols that are in place for health staff returning from West Africa,” Spencer said. “I am a living example of how those protocols work and of how early detection is critical to both surviving Ebola and ensuring that it is not transmitted to others.”
The article fails to mention that Dr. Spencer, recently returned from treating Ebola patients, essentially ignored symptoms for two days while “painting the town.” Nor does the article point out that Dr. Spencer forgot (lied?) to mention his city-wide travels to health officials or the NYPD investigators assigned to track down others that may have been exposed.
THE GOOD NEWS. Dr. Spencer is right on one account. Early detection and treatment makes a big difference, as does being treated in the United States. I take solace in that, along with the fact that Ebola is low on the contagion scale. These two factors alone should ease our minds. Ebola would be a very difficult disease to propagate in the United States…THANKFULLY.
Does that mean all of the Ebola rhetoric and news coverage was fear based and nonsensical? No. It got fairly heated and political, which is never a good thing. Especially with the safety of our citizens at risk. The quarantine question became purely political. Here’s the ONLY question that needed to be asked:
Is it worth quarantining and inconveniencing a few hundred healthcare workers to save one life?
I pose this question for one reason. The only way to guarantee 100% that Ebola didn’t spread beyond a “self-quarantined” healthcare worker is to enforce their quarantine. I can count four healthcare workers in the U.S, with direct contact with Ebola patients that thumbed their noses at the idea of quarantine. Statistics and a little luck kept them from infecting others, and possibly killing them. Low numbers kept that ONE LIFE intact. If the number of healthcare workers returning to “self quarantine” increases, statistics will claim a victim. Who will it be, and how will you feel about it? I can tell you this, inconveniencing a few hundred healthcare workers is worth saving my wife’s, son’s or daughter’s life. I wish more people had thought of that before jumping on the political bandwagon and deriding a more stringent quarantine option.
But Steve, imposing quarantine is not science based. That’s a fear based reaction with no basis in science.
If by science, you mean “what the CDC tells us?” I agree. But that’s not science. Science involves the search for knowledge—and never taking absolute statements seriously.
Here’s a quote from my local newspaper, celebrating a judge’s decision in Maine to override the state’s request that a local nurse remain in quarantine at her home. “They” refers to the governor’s office:
“They could have made the following points to address the fears and direct attention to the real threats, not the imagined ones:
• You can’t catch Ebola from someone who doesn’t have it. Hickox was exposed to people with the virus, but she has been tested and found healthy.
• You can’t get Ebola from someone who is not symptomatic. Hickox has had no fever, vomiting, diarrhea or any of the other signs that she is sick. These symptoms are hard to miss, and as a nurse, she is capable of monitoring herself and getting treatment if necessary.
• You can’t catch Ebola through the air, like a cold. The reason it is an epidemic in some countries is that they have a shortage of medical personnel as well as inadequate sewer and water systems, exposing the population to the bodily fluids of people who are infected.”
HOLY $#@! Batman, absolutism at it’s most dangerous. So, according to the article’s author, he or she would feel completely comfortable letting someone who recently treated Ebola patients (in a front line treatment center in Africa) babysit their infant after a single ebola test and a little temperature monitoring? How about if they were allergic to cats and started sneezing? I call B.S. on that, BUT ONLY BECAUSE I’VE DONE A LITTLE DIGGING.
Here are a few articles to shed some new light on this newspaper’s absolute statements:
1.) You can’t get Ebola from someone who doesn’t have it. No kidding. So a test is proof positive that you don’t have it? That was the basis of the Maine nurse’s argument. I’ve been tested and don’t have it. Bugger off, I know better. Hmmm.
Now, he had symptoms, which she didn’t…but that makes it even worse! You can have Ebola symptoms and not test positive. But we already knew that. The scientific community already knew that.
2.) You cannot catch Ebola from someone who is not symptomatic. Really? That’s interesting, because the top scientists that study…I don’t know…Ebola, don’t feel so sure about that statement. Why listen to them? I mean, just because you won a Nobel Prize for “work researching the cellular subsystem of the body’s overall immune system — the part of it that defends the body from infection by other organisms, like Ebola” doesn’t mean you might be able some light on the topic. Right?
I’m sure a scientific article in the New England Journal of Medicine is utter rubbish too. So what if 13% of Ebola victims (in the current outbreak!) never had a fever, the hallmark of symptoms for Ebola…and were full of virus!
3.) You can’t catch Ebola through the air. Well, it’s not “airborne” in the traditional sense of the virology term, but I wouldn’t want an Ebola patient sneezing in my face, unless I was wearing a positive pressure Biohazard Level 4 rated suit. I shouldn’t have to link to articles to prove this, because Ebola is a virus, and if a virus enters your bloodstream (through many mechanisms), it does what all viruses do. Replicates. But there’s debate about this, because some would like to believe you have to stick yourself with an Ebola infected needle or accidentally ingest a quart of infected blood to get infected. Here is the quick version from the New Yorker article (written about the geneticists trying to find a cure…smart folks I suppose).
“The virus is extremely infectious. Experiments suggest that if one particle of Ebola enters a person’s bloodstream it can cause a fatal infection. This may explain why many of the medical workers who came down with Ebola couldn’t remember making any mistakes that might have exposed them. One common route of entry is thought to be the wet membrane on the inner surface of the eyelid, which a person might touch with a contaminated fingertip. The virus is believed to be transmitted, in particular, through contact with sweat and blood, which contain high concentrations of Ebola particles. People with Ebola sweat profusely, and in some instances they have internal hemorrhages, along with effusions of vomit and diarrhea containing blood.”
Guess what, it’s also in your spit, urine and semen…it’s everywhere in your $#%! body. It’s a virus. If you sneeze on a door knob, and someone touches the door knob within a few hours, then rubs their eye—they CAN get EBOLA! Not likely, according to the statistics, but frankly, they have no idea how most people actually “got” the disease. That’s why most of the medical doctors can’t remember the mistake they made…it’s not clear cut in many cases. Yes, they are working directly with patients, day in and day out, which increases their chances of exposure dramatically, but they often don’t know. It’s not like one of the doctors said, “I reached over for my drink without looking and accidentally guzzled infected blood. My bad.” Don’t take my word for it.
The next articles comes right from the World Health Organization website. I believe what they say. Coughing and sneezing is not a likely transmission source because these are not common symptoms in an Ebola patient. Ebola is not a respiratory disease. However, respiratory disease is not the only reason we cough or sneeze. I sneeze several times a day, quite randomly. I cover my mouth (even alone in the house), but not everyone is so polite.
BOTTOM LINE: We appear to have dodged the Ebola bullet for now, and hopefully forever. The disease is still still running strong in Africa, so we haven’t seen the last of it here.
Trust me on that. Let’s just hope the ABSOLUTISM and POLITICS takes a back seat to SCIENCE. Maybe with the elections behind us, there’s hope for that ONE innocent victim sitting in a bowling alley, riding the metro, handing change over a counter, or opening a public door with their child. Until then, take advantage of the lull to assess your pandemic readiness.
If you want to dig deeper into pandemic preparedness or general disaster readiness, check out my latest book (co-authored by Randy Powers) Practical Prepping: No Apocalypse Required.
When I published The Jakarta Pandemic in 2010, I had no idea it would be so widely read. Nor did I ever expect to be considered a “source” of information about pandemics. Over the past two months, I have fielded questions from concerned readers, friends, family, readiness bloggers, authors and preparedness consultants regarding the recent Ebola outbreak in Africa. I’ve been rather guarded in my approach to the crisis, having watched it slowly build throughout the summer. When the death toll exceeded previous outbreaks, including the outbreak made famous by the groundbreaking novel The Hot Zone, I started watching it more closely. The novel The Hot Zone, by Richard Preston was the catalyst for my interest in pandemic grade viruses and an inspiration for my first novel.
With that said, I want to share my thoughts on the current crisis and point you in the direction of some balanced, informative articles on the topic…along with a few other resources.
WHAT DO I THINK ABOUT THE EBOLA CRISIS?
I suspect that world health authorities have currently lost control of the virus in Africa. A combination of controllable and uncontrollable factors conspired to worsen this crisis far beyond other Ebola outbreaks. Take a quick look at the following link and you will see that the 2014 outbreak is VERY different from anything we’ve seen in the past.
Until late May of this year, the Ebola outbreak more or less statistically resembled one of the previous outbreaks. In June it became clear to Doctors Without Borders that the disease had spiraled out of control. Here’s a snapshot of a chart provided by the BBC, showing the progression. If only the international community had responded in June or July.
Why didn’t the international community respond swiftly to the growing epidemic? The answer is not as simple as some would like to think. I won’t speculate, but based on the following article, one of the best I’ve seen covering the crisis, I can guarantee you this is not an international conspiracy. The circumstances were ripe for a systemic-wide failure in Africa. You have to read this article by the Washington Post to put it all in perspective.
The original calculation that we might see 100,000-200,000 plus cases of Ebola in Africa doesn’t sound so far-fetched anymore. I was skeptical of that number at first. Not anymore.
HERE’S MY INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK:
If the international community does not step in and take immediate control of the situation, to include a MASSIVE increase in FUNDS, EQUIPMENT and PERSONNEL, the Ebola virus has a strong chance of overtaking the African continent OR at the very least catapulting central Africa into complete chaos (not a far stretch for this region). A humanitarian crisis already exists there, but it’s the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Once this escalates out of control, refugees will flee in every direction, by every means possible…
They will reach Europe. They will reach south-west and east Asia. They will reach South America…thereby reaching North America. I don’t think Europe will lose control of the disease, but countries like India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia will not be so fortunate. The more this spreads throughout Asia and Africa, the more chance it will have of reaching North America. RIGHT NOW, the battle is overseas.
DOMESTIC OUTLOOK:
Based on what I’ve researched and recently read about the Ebola virus, unless the virus mutates, I don’t anticipate an Ebola outbreak in the United States, regardless of how many cases slip through the southern borders or arrive on poorly screened flights. It’s a relatively tough disease to spread compared to the flu. Read this:
The reality lies somewhere in between. Given out healthcare system (don’t laugh…), I have to agree that this will not take root (in its current form) and burn through the population. There are far bigger healthcare concerns on the horizon…the very near horizon. Avian Flu is still out there. Swine Flu. All kinds of nastiness. Read about them in this article:
I’m going to disappoint some of you…maybe not. Honestly, I think the worst case scenario you and I might face is a very temporary disruption of our daily lives. If cases of Ebola start to surface in the United States, even at small numbers in contained situations, the population might overreact. The availability of food, medical supplies and public services (schools, public transportation) might be limited for a very short period of time, while the population rushed to react. I don’t see this lasting long, but you should be prepared to spend a week or two at home to avoid getting caught up in some of the uglier behaviors that often arise when people are stressed about their safety—and haven’t adequately prepared.
That’s the perfect transition to my next segment.
WHAT CAN YOU DO?
You don’t have to do much. Heres a short list of steps to keep yourself out of the fray for a week or so. It might not even be that long if the government can demonstrate that the virus has been contained. If you want to dig deeper into pandemic preparedness or general disaster readiness, check out my latest book (co-authored by Randy Powers) Practical Prepping: No Apocalypse Required.
Actions to Consider:
-Avoid public areas, unless absolutely necessary—and only then when exercising caution and situational awareness. Carrying some kind of self-defense item is advised.
-Fill up your cars’ gas tanks in case you have to leave your residence during the crisis.
-Get some cash to keep on hand. Opportunism flourishes during disasters, and credit cards might not be accepted if you have to travel.
Supplies to Consider:
-Food for 2-3 weeks. Enough to keep you off the streets. I usually recommend having more than that at any given time, but I’m not expecting a pandemic. Just a little panic and brief disruption of the food system.
-First aid kit, expanded to include fever and cold medicine…for what’s most likely to infect you at any given time.
-Toilet paper. Don’t laugh. Can you name another item in your house that is guaranteed to drag you to the store? Tampons? Diapers? Get them.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
Take a deep breath and relax. You’re in no immediate danger. Every sneeze and fever is not Ebola. Some of the media has hyped this crisis to the point of PANIC.
Is there cause for alarm? Not yet, and not here.
Will the situation get worse? Definitely in Africa. It may spread to other less developed countries and take hold. I highly doubt it will proliferate in the U.S.
Will I be keeping my eye on the situation? YES. If my assessment changes, you’ll be the first to know.Visit the Prepper/Survival Corner on my blog to see my latest blog posts.
Probably none of you. I know I wouldn’t. How about one hour? Sounds better to me.
Last week I spent four combined hours on live internet radio and podcasts, talking about the upcoming post-apocalyptic collapse, survival, prepping, the Ebola threat, myself (occasionally), my books and the menstrual threat lurking around every corner (you can thank Prepper Chicks for that). Lots of great information, hearty laughs and serious confessions broken into four, one hour segments. There’s something for everyone—I promise.
Rational Survivor Podcast. Finally, Randy Powers and I spent more than an hour talking with Kyle, the Rational Survivor, about our upcoming collaboration, Practical Prepping: No Apocalypse Required, and many, many prepping topics. Lots of information in this one.
UPDATE 7/30: Jeroen ten Berge has graciously stepped in and designed a most fitting cover for PRACTICAL PREPPING. Once again, I’m simply blown away by his work. Thank you, Jeroen!
PRACTICAL PREPPING: NO APOCALYPSE REQUIRED, is a light-hearted, instructional look at the basic steps ANYONE can take to prepare for a disaster. From a foreign invasion to the zombie apocalypse—just kidding. We included No Apocalypse Required in the title for a good reason. This isn’t a book about ditching the suburbs for a heavily defended, self-sufficient compound in rural Minnesota. We explore real-life concepts and solutions to REAL-LIFE problems.
Disclaimer: This is not a “HOW TO” manual for every scenario. Sure, you’ll find a few lists, and a number of highlighted suggestions, but the bulk of our book focuses on practicalreadiness steps you can take or tactical concepts you can embrace, without interrupting your life or breaking the bank. Randy and I offer a layered, foundational approach that can be tailored to YOUR circumstances and motivation level.Let’s face it, few people want to spend an inordinate amount of time, effort and money preparing for something that may not happen. ME INCLUDED. We’ll discuss what you can do to prepare for what will likely happen. I think you’ll be surprised by how little time, effort and hard-earned cash you’ll need to put into PRACTICAL PREPPING.
You’re probably curious how we’ll pull this off. Will it be a didactic lecture, broken into boring chapters? NO. We decided specifically to avoid that format. Randy and I have identified roughly 20 topics worth addressing, from obvious stuff like FOOD, WATER, and FIRST AID to harder topics like HOMESTEADING, COMMUNICATIONS and POWER. Each chapter will contain an excerpt from one of my books that relates to the topic, followed by two essays (one written by each of us). Randy and I share the same philosophy, but we may have a different approach. That’s what will be unique about PRACTICAL PREPPING…if I’m boring, you can switch to Randy’s essay and learn from a real expert!
Who is Randy? Randall S. Powers of Practical Tactical, a personal readiness consulting business based out of Georgia. Randy has been a consultant to The Perseid Collapse series from the start, reviewing my prepper/survival based concepts and keeping me somewhat in line with reality. I considered starting most of my essays with “Whatever Randy just said.”
With that said, I’ll leave you with a sample chapter from the book. Keep in mind that his is un-edited. The typo police have not paid this manuscript a visit. Chapter 4 contains a few great examples of the foundational elements applied throughout the book. ENJOY!
Readers of The Perseid Collapse series know that I teamed up with Randy Powers from Tactical Practical to put a professional eye on the survival/homesteading/prepper aspects of the novel. The Perseid books take these themes to the next level, and I wanted to make sure I wasn’t too far into left field with my ideas and theories. I reference a Handbook created by Randy in the acknowledgments of The Perseid Collapse, which contains an incredible amount of valuable, distilled information. I thought I would share one of his blog posts, which explains the BOLT Kits used by Alex Fletcher and his family. Randy has a unique take on the heavily popularized “Bug out Bag.” Enjoy!
You’ve probably heard of a Bug Out Bag (BOB) or a Get Out Of Dodge (GOOD) bag that can be used as a grab and go kit in case you have to leave an area during an emergency situation. At Practical Tactical, we urge our clients to build what we call a B.O.L.T. (Basic Operations for a Limited Time) Kit. This mobile kit based on the basic tenets of preparedness: shelter, water, food, fire, comms/defense and psychological…and is geared towards executing your plan that was developed based on the threats in your area and your individual circumstances and will allow you to maintain your Basic Operations for a Limited Time as you BOLT to your next location that will hopefully be your safe haven from the immediate threat.
Now, what makes our B.O.L.T. Kit any different from every other Bug Out or GOOD Bag out there? A focused philosophy, that’s what. Often when people talk about emergency bags (regardless of what you call them) the idea starts out the same…put together a bag of essential items like food and water in case you have to leave in a hurry because of an emergency that will help you survive the event…simple, right? But from there, things tend to spin out and become ever more nebulous. Inevitably you end with Jack the Survivor strapping a pack to his back that contains everything from his favorite comic books to ammo for his Barrett 50 cal. which by the way, he has lovingly cradled in his arms as he treks into the wilderness to live off the land for the duration of the apocalypse, and if you don’t do that too you’re doomed to fail miserably and die immediately or be swallowed up by the very mindless hordes you were trying to escape in the first place.
This isn’t the first time Randy has challenged me to dissect one of my novels. Our early 2013 discussion of The Jakarta Pandemic is one of the most thorough, well-constructed interviews I’ve had the pleasure of giving. Mr. Powers puts time and thought into meaningful questions, which deeply explore the themes buried in my work. Even if I didn’t have themes, I’d have to make them up to satisfy Randy’s incredibly rich line of questioning 🙂
THE INTERVIEW:
The Fletchers are back in The Perseid Collapse and, I’ve got to say, we’ve missed them. Six years after the the Jakarta pandemic ravaged the life they had known Alex and Kate are pushing ahead into the new reality and are even sending their son Ryan off to college. How about you take it from there and tell us a little bit about the Fletchers and sort of set the stage for what’s going on in The Perseid Collapse?
The Fletchers are trying as much as they can to maintain a normal life. They live in the same home as they did in the first book. I struggled with whether they should stay in that house, whether there was too much bad juju in that neighborhood, a lot went down. They learned that bugging in like they did in The Jakarta Pandemic, although Maine is not as populated as some areas, in a relatively crowded neighborhood in a suburb was not a good idea then and it won’t be a good idea next time because the next time it’s going to be worse. Even if it’s the same or a lesser disaster, it’s going to end up being worse because the memories are fresh. The Fletchers made some money, or retained more money than everyone else, when everything was more or less wiped out after the Jakarta pandemic. So that’s kind of where the novel starts. Their son is on to college, they’re out on their sailboat, which is part of that normal life. They’re not afraid to go out, but they’re cautious. They have preparations. They have BOLT kits. They don’t live like most Americans, but they maintain the appearance that they do.
The Perseid Collapse opens up in China (something I certainly was not expecting) and once again it seems the Red Dragon is impacting the Fletchers world. Can you offer us a little insight into your motivation here?
I think it reflects more of my techno-thriller background that I’ve developed over the last four books in the Black Flagged series. I wanted to give readers a little more. Often times reading other books where you see an America that has been impacted by an EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse), there was never an explanation for what happened or even a hint of it….For me, I like to know a little more. So, I set up this international conspiracy based on the Chinese to get them back on the international scene and level things.
One of the things I noticed very early in the book is even though they’re the same people, no one that survived the Jakarta Pandemic escaped without being changed in some way. I noticed it in Kate first, but as the story moved along I saw the same thing in each of core characters and especially in Alex. Everyone seems to have a bit more edge to them and felt a bit grittier. Not in a bad way, but in a real way, and it seems like our group of survivors are more comfortable with themselves and with each other in their reality following the pandemic. Was this intentional and do you want to walk us through your thought process on how each member of the Durham Road group has come through their last six years?
In the first book of the Perseid, everyone has changed. They’ve retained a lot of their characteristics and their core values, but I think realism has really settled in. I thought it was most obvious in Alex, but I agree with you…and a number of other readers have said that they really liked seeing Kate and learning more about her and her mindset. Like you said, early on she establishes herself…not necessarily forcefully…but you know she’s a force to be reckoned with. She was always like that in the beginning. She was always the one that recommended doing the early shooting. She was kind of the more hard core proponent of violence in the first book. Now that’s kind of transferred over to Alex, but you can definitely see that shift.
This story gets downhill in a hurry and just picks up speed from there. A pandemic virus shook things up for the Fletchers last time around, so what is the disaster catalyst that kicks things off in The Perseid Collapse?
READ THE REST OF THE INTERVIEW HERE! Sorry to do that to you, but head on over to Randy’s site. He doesn’t bite and you won’t find yourself on a government watch list…like you will reading my stuff!
Here’s the situation. My son needed a ride to a friend’s house on a weekend morning, and like every weekend morning, I like to lounge around (after writing…I’m up early on weekends too out of sheer habit). 9:30 rolled by, and my son appeared out of nowhere to inform me, “It’s time to go.” I was dressed in a pair of shorts, a sweatshirt and Birkenstocks (no socks). Without donning a jacket, I dutifully jumped in the car and drove him. I didn’t plan to get out of the car, so why would I need a jacket or shoes? On the drive home, my brain started to come up with SCENARIOS, and NONE of them ended well for a man dressed in shorts, a flimsy sweatshirt and sandals, on a 25 degree morning.
I spend six months at a time (longer for my first book, The Jakarta Pandemic), researching, creating and “playing out” one worst case SCENARIO after another. Not surprisingly, it has left an indelible mark on my thought processes and awareness.
We had our first “sticking” snow this morning, and after a brief, “I love winter” sentiment, my mind went somewhere else. “Do we have enough food to last the winter, if the power failed right now and didn’t return?” That’s a product of The Jakarta Pandemic. The protagonist had to endure a Maine winter without power or the prospect of replenishing their food stockpile, while everyone was trying to take what they had. Which reminds me, “better check the ammo supply to0…what time does Cabelas open?” Eventually, I settle back into “these SCENARIOS are one in a million,” no need to run out today and fill up the grocery cart with canned goods, dried foods, medicine…”where’s my list again?” See what happens?
Right now, I’m living in Alex Fletcher’s new world, imagining what it would be like to navigate the unfamiliar jigsaw puzzle streets of Boston, in a city on the verge of violent, ugly collapse. He’ll get back to Maine, eventually, but the state will never be the same—for either of us. When I look around, I catch glimpses of the post-apocalyptic Maine brought to life in The Perseid Collapse. I can live with that…at least I’m not writing about zombies. I can’t imagine running around with that in my head.
Is this a writer’s curse? An occupational hazard for sure, but I think it better describes a writer’s GENESIS. The SCENARIOS didn’t start when I decided to write a novel. The novels came when I finally decided to write about the SCENARIOS. At some point, everyone asks at what point I decided to write a novel? It’s hard to answer, since I’ve been creating them for years.
I just finally decided to put one of them on paper. Now I can’t stop.
I realize all you have been hearing lately is “Perseid Collapse this and Jakarta Pandemic that.” I’ve admittedly been in POST-APOCALYPTIC mode for nearly five months at this point, and I haven’t spoken a word about Black Flagged and the Petrovich’s, aside from assuring everyone that THEY WILL RETURN.
While writing the acknowledgments for The Perseid Collapse, I commented that my wife has been instrumental to the difficult shift between The Petrovich’s in the Black Flagged series to the Fletcher’s in The Perseid Collapse. After writing FOUR Black Flagged novels, it wasn’t easy.
Writing those lines reminded me of a short story I had written about Daniel Petrovich’s early years, when he went by a different name, Marko Resja. I haven’t mentioned this piece in a while, and some of you may not be familiar with it. It’s buried in Black Flagged Redux, at the end of the novel. At some point, it will fit into one of my novels…when I go back and tell Daniel, Jessica and General Sanderson’s stories. Black Flagged Beginnings. Until then, I still owe you Black Flagged Book Five, which will end the current CORE series. I hope to start working on this in the spring of 2014. Coming up soon.
Here is the excerpt I wrote for Black Flagged Beginnings. Unedited. Enjoy!
With The Perseid Collapse launch rapidly approaching it’s magic date—December 1st, I wanted to bring back some memories of it’s predecessor, The Jakarta Pandemic. TJP was my first novel, kicking my writing career into full gear. A ton has been said about TJP, covering every aspect of the story. I’ve been interviewed several times, and hundreds of independent reviews (individual blogs and websites) have been posted.
Randy Powers of Practical Tactical interviewed me during the late spring of 2013, and his questions blew me away. It was evident from the very start, that he had put an incredible amount of time and thought into my novel. This is by far one of my favorite interviews. He asks some hard questions about the more “controversial” material, giving me an opportunity to explain how I merge fiction with research.
THE INTERVIEW:
Welcome, Steve. First and foremost, thank you for your service.
Thank you, Randy. I really appreciate the opportunity to dig below the surface of my writing and expose some of the core ideas and concepts that help shape the stories. Regardless of what other authors may claim, writing is a personal endeavor, no matter how far fetched the plot or action may seem to the reader. There is always something deeply personal embedded in the writing, and the threads that wrap around these aspects often define the story’s core essence.
In your writings, there is no such thing as black and white. You deal in personal confliction and there are no easy answers. You have also said that your military experience figures heavily into your writings. With all that said, TJP brings all that together in a complex character and gives us Alex Fletcher.
Ten years out of the Marines, Alex has fully transitioned back into the private sector and seems to be doing quite well. Putting aside what I assume would be Alex’s tendency to be prepared due to his military experience, I would like to talk a little about what motivated Alex to focus on the threat of a pandemic and make preparations for his family. At the end of Chapter 5, we learn about a presentation that Alex did for his company Biosphere and the research that went into it. We learned that process “changed his life” in apparently more ways than just professionally. Can you talk about how this process impacted Alex and his decisions when it comes to his family’s preparedness?
When I started to conceptualize The Jakarta Pandemic, I wanted to highlight the difficulties of surviving a catastrophic level event in a suburban setting. The leading difficulty in my opinion would be dealing with everyone else’s varying degree of unpreparedness in the face of a complete lack of essential services. With that in mind, I wanted to start Alex in a position of self-sufficiency, and I chose this “presentation” as his catalyst to start preparing for a worst-case scenario. The conclusion Alex draws from his research reflects the culmination of my own examination of the scenario. In a nutshell, it’s not a matter of IF something like this will happen, it’s a matter of WHEN, and WHEN it happens, survival will depend on your basic level of preparedness and planning.
I’ve read that you raised your personal level of preparedness AFTER writing TJP. I was a bit shocked by that fact. One of my favorite parts of the book is when we get a first look at the Fletcher’s supplies as we join Alex for an inventory “the Frito supply” for the first time. You describe the Fletcher’s well rounded stockpile in some detail and even lay out a good plan for rotating food stores as if you had been doing it yourself for a long time. I particularly appreciated how you pointed out throughout the book that building a stockpile like the Fletcher’s is something that anyone can do if they make a plan and execute it in a practical way. Was family preparedness and establishing an emergency survival kit a chicken and egg type thing for you as you wrote the book? And, without divulging too much, how much did Alex teach you about being more prepared and what steps have you taken in your personal life to be better prepared for any future emergency?
Most people are shocked to learn that I never visited a prepper or survivalist website prior to finishing The Jakarta Pandemic. In many ways, I’m glad that I didn’t. I’m a details oriented writer, and despite the fact that the scene you described is exhaustively detailed, I would have driven myself insane trying to get the Fletcher’s “bunker” perfect. I put a considerable amount of thought into the contents of their survival stockpile, starting with the basics: Food, Water, and Medical Supplies…and expanding from there. And I certainly expanded far beyond the basics. Solar panels connected to battery storage, two oil tanks for storing fuel (this is a New England phenomena…most of you have natural gas or propane), wood burning stove (which I don’t think they ever used), generator, antibiotics (unethically obtained through Alex’s employer) and many other items that might come in handy if the shelves at your local Home Depot and grocery store emptied overnight. Imagine going cold turkey off Fritos…devastating. :0)
So to answer your question, I created this incredible stockpile or “bunker” in my novel, and didn’t have so much as three extra cans of vegetables in my own house to back up one of the main themes in my book. A few months after publishing the novel, I took Alex Fletcher’s advice and started to slowly build up a reserve of food and supplies, one shopping trip at a time. It’s truly amazing what you can amass in two years, when you take a systematic, consistent approach to stockpiling supplies. Does my basement now resemble Alex’s? Not even close, but I feel confident that my family could ride out a major disaster, without resorting to desperate measures. Of course, the same question always remains, regardless of how much you prepare…what is your neighbor doing to avoid resorting to desperate measures, and what is your plan to deal their desperation. This becomes a pinnacle issue for Alex, and his plan is woefully lacking in this author’s opinion…on purpose.
Most folks living a preparedness lifestyle understand that planning is paramount to the success of any emergency plan. This usually means having a plan to ride out an emergency situation at home, also known as sheltering in place or bugging in, and also having a plan to evacuate if the situation dictates, commonly referred to as bugging out. If the plan is to shelter in place, neighbors can become a real problem like we see in TJP. We don’t want to give the story away, but what are your thoughts on working with neighbors or building a survival team, given that the necessities of dealing with a pandemic primarily call for isolation? Makeshift alliances develop in TJP, but should Alex have developed relationships and built his team within the neighborhood well ahead of the pandemic since he viewed it as such a real threat?
This is hard to say. Unfortunately for Alex, his plan from the start was isolation, but he quickly learned that this wasn’t going to be a viable option. Without recognizing the need for a diplomacy based “crowd control” plan prior to the arrival of the pandemic virus, he really shortchanged himself and put his family in danger. With that said, none of us want to view our neighborhood as an episode of Survivor, where shifting alliances and secret plots undermine the ease of living and sense of relaxation we come to expect when we pull into the driveway. Alex had some core friends in the neighborhood, which came in handy as the conflict escalated, and he found a few surprise allies along the way. If anything, Alex could have been more open to dispelling a few stereotypes that hindered him in the beginning. I don’t write big moral lessons into my novels, but Alex’s character gave me the opportunity to point out a few negative behaviors that most of us can find in ourselves from time to time.
Jeroen ten Berge has turned the tables on me! He’s delivered an incredible cover design, and I haven’t finished writing the book! As always, Jeroen scored a bullseye. His design brilliantly captures the core essence of The Perseid Collapse’s sweeping apocalyptic world.
“2019. Six years after the Jakarta Pandemic, the United States stands at the brink of a fiscal and industrial resurgence. Stories of prosperity and confidence dominate the headlines, orchestrated to distract the nation from a dangerous current of hostility and fear—running strong below the surface. Nobody has forgotten the horrors of the Jakarta Pandemic. Sickness. Hunger. Desperation. Unspeakable violence.
On August 19, 2019, an unprecedented “mass event” will release a darkness across the United States. A human darkness with a vast appetite for violence and chaos. Alex Fletcher will awaken to this new world, catapulted unwillingly into an frantic odyssey, against overwhelming odds, to save his family and friends.”
Last week, I alluded to a second big change in the works, though I suppose the word “change” is a bit of an understatement.The news is a complete paradigm shift for me. The bottom line?
I RESIGNED FROM MY POSITION AT PFIZER INC. about two weeks ago, in order to pursue a career as a full time writer/author. For those of you who know me outside of my books, this move should come as no real surprise.
My passion for writing long ago eclipsed my enthusiasm to continue working as a pharmaceutical sales representative. With five books published, and an endless supply of ideas rattling around in my head, I had reached the point where it no longer made sense on any level to continue donning a suit every day and driving all over Maine to do a job I had long ago ceased to enjoy. It was truly a no-brainer, and couldn’t come at a better time. As you can probably guess, this is a good thing for everyone…not just me.
Most importantly for you, the books will come faster.The Perseid Collapse will now be available in mid to late November, instead of December. Instead of writing for two hours in the morning, I now have the entire day…and I have no intention of abandoning my early morning routine. I anticipate releasing 4-6 books per year, instead of two. It’s amazing what I can accomplish without having “report for duty” at Pfizer every day. I’ve written more in the past several days than in all of August, and I haven’t settled into a routine yet.
Tomorrow will be my first FULL day writing, and I couldn’t be more excited. For the first time in 24 years, I have no work uniform to pull off a hangar. No Service Dress Blues (Navy). No camouflage (USMC liaison days). No suit (Pfizer days). Just shorts and a T-shirt…I couldn’t be happier.
The past few weeks have yielded a changes. Big changes. I’ll share one of them with you now, and the other in a few days.
First, after an impromptu strategy session with cover designer, Jeroen ten Berge, I decided to expand the Perseid Collapse universe into a multiple book series (three minimum). I had originally planned a single novel, with the possibility of a sequel, but 50k words into the story (200 pages), I had only finished one-third (barely) of my storyboard. Not only was The Perseid Collapse heading into uncharted page-count territory, but I felt like I was holding back to keep the novel length under control. I don’t like to hold back in my novels, so I picked a logical break point on my storyboard and divided it into two books, adding additional scenes and incorporating a new thread into the overall series concept. Nearly 20K words later, I can assure you this was the right decision. The new thread binds the books together far more tightly than I had originally envisioned. I’m extremely happy with the result.
What does this mean for you?The Perseid Collapse books will be shorter (325-375 words), but they will arrive more frequently. Since book two is already plotted, I will start it immediately upon completing book one. I typically take a month off between books…not this time. I anticipate launching The Perseid Collapse in early December and The Perseid Collapse: Event Horizon in March. The third book, The Perseid Collapse: Point of Crisis, will likely arrive in the fall of 2014.
At this point, the Black Flagged series readers are probably scratching their heads, wondering what has happened to Black Flagged Reprisals. Have no fear, Reprisals is on target for early summer 2014. I had to push it back, just slightly to accommodate the revival of the apocalyptic world started with The Jakarta Pandemic. While The Jakarta Pandemic and Black Flagged series are distinctly different worlds, The Perseid Collapse series incorporates more of the technothriller flair that I’ve developed over four Black Flagged books. Without reading The Jakarta Pandemic(though I highly encourage it), Black Flagged readers should be able to sink right into The Perseid Collapse series, feeling very comfortable in a gritty, fast paced, plot twist rich environment.
The fall promises to be an exciting time. More big news on the way! Be sure to sign up for my new release updates list HERE
I just posted Chapter Three here on my blog. I plan to release one chapter every Friday (or Thursday if I’m out-of-town), but I won’t add a new post like this every week…no need to clog your email boxes with notifications. I do have some exciting news about The Perseid Collapse, which I will release by next Friday, along with at least two chapters. Sorry to leave you with a cliff hanger, but I still have some details to work out and a plot board to modify. Trust me when I say, that the news is good for reader and author alike.
If you haven’t signed up for my New Release Updates List, I highly encourage it. It’ll give you a leg up on New Release information…and some of the giveaway prizes that will be linked to The Perseid Collapse Trilogy’s release. Did I say Trilogy? Click here to sign up.
Richard Stephenson’s follow up to Collapse will be available Monday, July 15th. If you like epic post-apocalyptic thrillers, Stephenson delivers. Fast paced, dystopian fun…let’s hope his vision of the future never comes to pass.
“Fans of Collapse will not be disappointed with Stephenson’s second installment to the New America series. Fast forward eighteen months after the Collapse of 2027, and Howard Beck, president of the Pacific States of America, is plotting to defeat the Unified American Empire and restore unity to a nation torn apart by the nefarious deeds of the Great Empire of Iran…and some particularly opportunistic buzzards in D.C.
The author spells it all out in macro detail, then starts to dig in where his strength truly lies…with street level action, bringing along the exceptionally developed cast from Collapse and introducing the reader to new characters. I was particularly happy to see Benjamin Black return with a major role in Resistance. He’s come a long way from the charismatic leader and Walmart destroyer we last saw in Collapse. Black is by far my favorite expanded character, along with a nefarious mystery saboteur/assassin that I couldn’t get enough of.
Stephenson treats the reader to just about everything in Collapse. From individual checkpoint battles to massive high tech combat engagement; political assassination attempts to complex coup d’état’s; macro level political maneuvering to psychotic leaders…all culminating in a twist that you will not see coming. The battle lines are drawn in Resistance…then redrawn when you least expect it. Resistance is as much a political/military/apocalyptic novel as it is a cautionary conspiracy gem.
From a purely mechanical point of view, Stephenson has upped his game. The writing is smooth and the descriptions are vivid. He moves back and forth from big picture to point of view action flawlessly. The author has clearly taken his writing to the next level.”
Fans of Russell Blake have a lot to celebrate with this novel. The prolific writer has been relatively quiet lately, for good reason. His latest thriller sizzles with intensity and combines the best of Blake’s worlds in one, “must read” novel. This one will leave you questioning everything. Grab a copy HERE.
“This is Russell Blake at his best. A perfect blending of Ludlum-esque international conspiracy, “The Firm” like intrigue and Crichton-level biomedical detail. Nobody can take a conspiracy theory and spin it into a convincing, high stakes “cat and mouse” game like Blake. If you think Upon a Pale Horse is just “another medical thriller,” you couldn’t be more sorely mistaken.
Blake’s ambitious, finely executed story pits a resourceful attorney, Jeffrey Rutherford, against a ruthless cabal, in a race against time to stop a jaw-dropping plot to unleash the apocalypse and cleanse the world. The background conspiracy fueling Blake’s plot is exquisitely (and frighteningly) weaved, leaving the reader with a well-founded sense of urgency and dread. Tightly staged across two continents, Rutherford’s plight will keep you affixed to the screen, as David takes on Goliath in an unforgettable end game.
The intrigue, deception, and twists alone are well worth the price of admission, along with a blistering plot; but as an author well versed in bioweapons, virology and pandemic research, I have to give Blake credit for doing his homework. His pandemic information is accurate, accessible and damn scary…his scenario will leave you sleepless, wondering what lurks around the next corner. Trust me, if Blake’s instincts are correct, you don’t want to know.”
You’d think that starting novel number six wouldn’t be a big deal. It’s always a big deal, and frankly, I find myself more than a little nervous as I type the title on the page, make sure it’s centered and STARE at the screen for an indeterminable amount of time. The first words are always the most difficult for me, compounded by the fact that those words commit me to a minimum of three straight months of writing.
I wrote the first 420 words to The Perseid Collapse this morning, sitting at a desk in a hotel room. Not exactly where I would choose to start such an important undertaking, but my day job requires these things, and I write everyday no matter where I find myself…even a lonely hotel room. No, it wasn’t someplace fancy or scenic. As a matter of fact, it was within sight of both a mall and the Maine Turnpike.
But it was in Bangor, less than eight minutes (as measured by my iPhone’s mapping software) from my favorite author’s house.
I’ve been to Bangor several times over the past few months for work, but I’ve purposely avoided West Broadway. I’ve driven by it and struggled not to turn. Why? Because I wanted the context of seeing Stephen King’s house to be special. Seeing it on the same morning that I typed the first words of my sequel to The Jakarta Pandemic qualified, so I made the turn off Union Street and parked in front of his house long enough to take a few pictures. It was all I needed to round off a perfect morning…almost perfect. I forgot to bring the power cord for my Mac Air on the trip, and found myself with 46% power upon waking at “zero dark thirty.” 420 words was all I could write before the computer basically told me to save my document and find something else to do.
I was recently interviewed by Randy Powers, creator of Practical Tactical, a prepper based blog focused on passing “practical” information on a wide variety of survival, prepper and every day situational awareness. His collections of interviews and articles is diverse, entertaining and not what you’d expect. One in particular was eye-opening and education. Al Bartlett’s talk on Arithmetic, Population and Energy. Read the article once and you’ll become smarter. Read it twice and you’ll surpass 99.9% of the population in terms of understanding statistics…very practical statistics, and how you can apply them to debunk much of the nonsense you hear on the television today. Al Bartlett’s Talk.
As always, I digress a bit. Randy’s interview was by far the most comprehensive to this date, showing an in-depth analysis of The Jakarta Pandemic and the situations the unraveled throughout the story. Since initial publication, The Jakarta Pandemic has reached over 50,000 readers. The most common theme brought up by readers in reviews or emails is that the story made them think about their own situation in a similar crisis. Randy really took this to a higher level in his interview, cherry picking what he interpreted to be the most important lessons for readers and asking me to expand on my thought process while creating specific scenes or characters.
Enjoy the interview and by all means check out Randy’s posts and articles. If you have any questions at all about home defense, prepping, self defense…whatever you can think of in this arena, don’t hesitate to get in touch with Randy. He is a wealth of information.
One reader out of five would trip me in the grocery store aisle if they got the chance. Of course, if they read Black Flagged, the last place they would ever consider accosting me, would be a grocery store…especially Whole Foods.
All kidding aside, I anticipated “number 200” to be one of the “beauties” that seem to come up out of nowhere to put balance back into my life and remind me that it is impossible to write a story that everybody will like, nor should you try.
I’ve developed a thicker skin since publishing my first book in the fall of 2010, and learned some hard lessons about writing in a genre that can be politically polarized. Especially if you throw the occasional dig in either political direction. Hands down, the conservatives were the most sensitive, though I did have liberals weigh in on the protagonist’s actions as well. In celebration of my “200th review” being a positive review, I’m sharing the top ten negative comments “earned” over the past 20 months. To be fair, I won’t add any commentary.
1. “I tried to finish the book hoping there will be a shocking,exciting climax and revelation towards the end but was I utterly disappointed when I finished the book feeling empty.Is this a love story or what??It is so cheesy with the main character and his wife that it makes you sick reading it.How many times do I have to read how much they love each other?seriously once should be enough.I read his first book Black flagged that’s why I decided to read this next one but I can’t believe it’s written by the same writer.”
2. “The lead character is an arrogant know-it-all. He treated his parents and brother with impatience and superiority because they got their info from FOX News (gasp)!”
3. “I won’t discuss the liberal social bias of the characters other than to say it was a point of distraction, but perhaps they were intended to be social liberals. There was nothing about the main character or his wife that I liked, and the kids were just wooden props. “Ward and June Cleaver Versus the Virus” could have been a fitting title, based on their 50’s era mind-set, yuppie opinions and “better-than-thou” attitudes. By the time I reached the halfway point of the book, I was rooting for the virus!”
4. “I got about one third the way through and gave up. I rarely give up. I am astounded by the positive reviews. It makes me wonder if any of these reviewers are literate. To put it in a nutshell this book really stinks. You feel like you might lose IQ points if you persist in reading it. Please people for you own sakes don’t expose your brains to this drivel.”
5. “It’s a book written by someone who has no idea of what a real, independant-minded, ex-military man or woman is, and it’s beyond the bounds of my credibilty–as developed by my own military background, current law enforcement and survivalist mentality–that a man with his stated credentials, who has so much to lose and so many weapons and other resources could be such a milksop. I ran some of his scenarios across a female Army Infantry vet coworker and she was disgusted by his behavior. I’m beginning to suspect “Steven” may be a pen name for “Stevie” or “Stephanie”
6. “I’m sorry, but this whole theme of “liberal Marine” just didn’t sit well with me, and was completely unrealistic. However, if you are in the less than 20% of the people in this country who call yourselves liberal, you will probably love it.”
7. “I really like the subject matter and the story idea. I just couldn’t get very far because this book is replete with the usage of the Lord’s name taken in vain along with substantial foul language.”
8. “The author’s blurb describes the “Islamic Republic of Indonesia.” There *is no* “Islamic Republic of Indonesia.” That tells you all you need to know about the author’s bias. Only thing missing from this book is a forward by Newt Gingrich or Glenn Beck. If an author can’t get the name of a country right (it wasn’t a “mistake,” BTW), what else did he “not get right”?
9. “Don’t like the “hero” — he is mouthy and antagonistic, aside from being a thief. Needlessly provokes confrontations right from the beginning. Pretty much brags about being prepped while others did not or could not prep, which of course will guarantee resentment, plus he did not train his family. He makes several stupid mistakes and sets himself up for getting killed — and getting his obnoxious family killed.”
10. “not much there not really good he spends to much time dising fox news and not enough time getting a story that is less tan boring”
I eagerly await number 201. Statistically, if I had to bet…I’d bet on a bad one!
UPDATE: I beat the odds. #201 was a Five Star Review. My glass is half full again!
Actually, they were never really lost. I cut 60,ooo words from the first draft on purpose…to save you from reading a 200,000 word novel. Think Stephen King’s THE STAND length.
21 months after The Jakarta Pandemic’s launch, I have brought about 30,000 words back to life in a re-release. I reformatted and added this material to the end of my book as bonus material. Of course, I don’t expect previous readers to buy the new version. You can download the material right here: BONUS MATERIAL PDF or BONUS MATERIAL MS Word
What made me decide to resurrect this material? Reading The Thin White Line by Craig DiLouie.
I’ll explain. Most of the material cut from my novel consisted of imbedded news reports, television interviews and radio show segments. Since the story is told solely from the main character’s point of view, there is no omniscient presentation of information about the world pandemic situation. The reader learns about the pandemic through Alex Fletcher eyes and ears. Since I did a ton of research for the novel, I was over eager to “share” volumes of this information with my audience. Not the best idea when you are trying to move a story along and maintain tension. The virtual editing floor was littered with cuts made on the reader’s behalf.
Craig DiLouie’s self-published book, The Thin White Line, is a painstakingly researched, fictional account of an avian flu pandemic in 2012. Presented on a more clinical scale than The Jakarta Pandemic, he tells the story from multiple perspectives within a beleaguered healthcare system and collapsing civil structure. He masterfully details every academic aspect that I cut from The Jakarta Pandemic and more. Way more. Read together, I believe The Thin White Line and The Jakarta Pandemic redefine pandemic fiction.
For those of you unfamiliar with Craig DiLouie’s work, he is a well established writer within the apocalyptic horror genre, featuring several wildly popular titles, including Tooth and Nail (which I reviewed on this blog) and Infection. His most recent work, The Killing Floor (a continuation of Infection) was just released by Permuted Press to an eager fan base.
The Jakarta Pandemic? What’s that? Admittedly, my first novel has been flying on autopilot for several months now. I haven’t done much to support the book, beyond track sales, answer reader emails (which keeps me busy…believe me) and respond to a few Amazon reviews (I know, according to the “writing” world, I’m not supposed to do that, and I pretty much abide by that rule).
So, it’s with great pleasure that I announce the release of The Jakarta Pandemic in audiobook format.
Professionally produced by Gregg Savage of Sunny Day Audiobooks, and masterfully narrated by Joseph Morton, the final product is a brilliant rendition of The Jakarta Pandemic. I’m listening to it in my car, and there is something truly incredible about hearing the story brought to life.
I want to extend a special thanks to Gregg, for reaching out to me with the offer to produce the audiobook. In all reality, my role in the process was to simply provide the manuscript and wait. A worthwhile wait for sure.
I re-read most of Tooth and Nail over Memorial Day weekend. Oddly enough, aside from Black Hawk Down or Band of Brothers (or many more great military non-fiction reads), I couldn’t think of a more appropriate book to read. You’ll find out why in the review below. I read this book in pieces earlier this year, mainly trying to fit in time to read a compelling story between writing my third novel. I don’t get much personal reading done while deeply engaged in a project.
I was motivated to re-read Craig DiLouie‘s story following an announcement he made regarding the re-release of a pandemic story he had self-published prior to writing Tooth and Nail. I’m really glad I did, because I got so much more out of the story reading it in a few days. Simply an incredible story…reader discretion advised.
“Tooth and Nail is one of the most immersive experiences you can find as a fan of apocalyptic fiction. As a former military officer, I can attest to complexity and uncertainty of the difficult decisions faced by second lieutenant Todd Bowman and his men, as they encountered an increasingly deadly and nebulous viral threat on the streets of Manhattan. The buildup of tension, confusion and violence was expertly drawn from start to finish. Each soldier’s role in the story is examined and expanded through gritty action, well constructed conversation and personal narrative introspection. Although DiLouie’s story leans heavily on brutal action, which becomes a necessary way of life for the platoon, he takes the time to explore the bonds that strengthen this small community of warriors as they try to carry out their orders and makes sense of the madness that has descended on the world. This is one of the most realistic fictional representations of platoon interaction that I have read in this genre.
Beyond military realism is a well developed scientific scenario that gives you a break from the intense military action. I recently saw that the author re-released one of his previous works, called The Thin White Line, which is a research based, fictional account of an avian flu pandemic. I was not surprised to find out that he had started working on Tooth and Nail soon after publishing this work. The exhaustive research in The Thin White Line played out beautifully in Tooth and Nail, adding yet another layer of realism. This aspect is delivered in the form of a parallel, yet crucial side story about several virologists trapped nearby in a secure research facility. I appreciated the dichotomy of these two worlds: [Brute strength, flexible/quick decisionmaking and firepower] Vs. [Scholarly intellect, detailed research and organized thought] AGAINST the same enemy. Watching the two merge in this story is a bonus.
DiLouie’s story has been called Black Hawk Down meets 28 Days Later. I agree, but would add elements of Zulu Dawn and 300 Spartans to that list. What starts out as a relatively simple operations for 2LT Bowman’s platoon turns into an epic battle for survival, with more than just his platoon’s fate at stake.”
As I warm to the concept of being interviewed, I find myself opening up and revealing more of the secrets behind my writing. Not really. I’m warming up to the process, but still wish I had some cool dark secret that kept me pounding away on the keyboard at 4:30 in the morning…something to explain the headaches and the voices…JUST KIDDING! With each interview, I’m forced to give more thought to the process of writing and the factors influencing the stories…so I uncover some pretty interesting connections that might have gone undiscovered otherwise.
Take a look at my latest interview at Cookie’s Book Club…and check out her giveaway contest. I can’t think of a better Christmas present…for you or someone else, than a set of my books, signed for me by my son. I’m too busy now to sign books. ANOTHER BAD JOKE. Seriously, you can win a signed set of my books at her Book Club Blog.
In today’s fiction market, you either need a sizable backlist, a ready-to-go fan base, or a traditional publishing deal to come out of the gate bursting with sales. Your Twitter following of 800 other authors doesn’t count as a launching pad, either. The most common problem for new authors, is the search for readership. Unless you’re writing to fill your own bookshelf, you share the same dilemma. I know…we all have an incredibly interesting, unique novel, ready to unleash upon the unsuspecting world…but so does every other writer reading this essay. And this is just the tip of the iceberg! The key term here, is “unsuspecting world.” I’m fairly confident the world will push onward in blissful ignorance of your book, if you don’t find a way to start a small fire. You need to find a niche, and expand it.
I’ll be blunt with my story. I published The Jakarta Pandemic in October of 2010, and had no clue what to do with it. I was just glad to have finished it. Three years of disorganized part time writing, and now what? I had no marketing plan…or concept. I had started research into the traditional publishing world, but quickly came to the conclusion that this would be a long process. Fine, except it bothered me that friends and family couldn’t read the culmination of three years’ effort, and might never read it, if I waited for a New York deal. So, I uploaded my book to Kindle, Nook and CreateSpace…and made the big announcement to friends and family.
I had a modest burst of sales in October and November, which tapered off as I exhausted my supply of friends and family (thank you for the support!). A few reviews on Amazon followed (I recognized the names…thank you again!), and then it all fizzled. To be honest, I didn’t expect anything different. I started writing query letters to literary agents, but felt dirty each time I wrote that little personal note in there…you know, the one that lets the agent know that you did about two minutes of “in-depth” research into their background. I wrote seven queries (5 e-mail and 2 paper) before I read Joe Konrath’s blog, and said “screw this.”
Something very fortuitous occurred around the same time. Previously, I had decided to classify my book as a thriller (accurate), and weakly pursued the thriller market on a few web forums. If you haven’t figured it out, there are a lot of thrillers out there. Labeling your book a thriller is like selling grass seed and advertising the color. No shit, it’s green. No shit, you wrote a “thriller.” But I was a first time author, new to the writing world, and thrillers always top the best seller lists. Dominate the lists, actually. My wife showed me an article that proved it.
So, what knocked me out of this “thriller” silo? I received a 5-Star review from someone that lauded the survivalist aspect of my novel. He liked the thriller aspect of the book too, and said “move over Robert Ludlum.” Over the top for sure, but I could tell that the survivalist aspects struck home the most with this reader. My book does have a strong survivalist and prepper theme, so I started to wonder what I could do with this. I did a little research into the survivalist community.
I found one particular forum that dealt exclusively with survival prepping and related topics. They had a lively fiction/story-telling thread, so I joined the forum, introduced myself, and committed to releasing my entire novel (one chapter at a time). I was warmly welcomed, and kept my word over the next four to five months. Many readers couldn’t wait for the next installment, and purchased hard copies or e-books. Reviews poured in, and the book started picking up steam on Amazon. Of course, I made sure that the search terms reflected survival, so other like-minded readers could easily find it. I had found my first niche. My book’s thread is still in the top ten viewed story threads on this site.
As my Amazon ranking climbed (modestly), I started to pick up more readers, from a wider spectrum. Out of nowhere, I was contacted by another author, to participate in a Post-Apocalyptic (PA) blog tour. Uh…I suppose so…never really thought of my book in this genre. Really? A book about a devastating pandemic? WTF was I thinking. I eagerly agreed, and started joining PA forums everywhere. Unbelievable. These were truly my people, for this book. A dedicated crew, like the survivalist/prepper group, Post-Apocalyptic readers devour everything written in the genre. I started this in mid-February, and pushed heavy through March. It is no coincidence that my sales jumped from 160 in January, to 645 in February…to 1400 in March. My Amazon ranking (overall Kindle store) dipped into the 800’s. The good old days. I had really found my true niche, and a supportive group of hard core readers.
I have a new book launching in late October, and I can’t wait to see how the two will synergistically work together. I don’t have thousands of readers eagerly waiting by their Kindles for this book, but I do have a sizable core of ready readers that will immediately buy it, and probably review it. There are also over 9000 people (total downloads) out there, who have read my work, and might look me up again, when they’re searching for something to read this fall. Now I just need to work on a niche to go with my “backlist,” and give prospective readers a reason to gravitate toward the Black Flagged series.
All of my samples so far have focused on my upcoming novel, Black Flagged, leaving my first novel, The Jakarta Pandemic,with abandonment issues. To remedy this, I added a sample to the “samples” link box, or you can find it here:
And I’m not talking about trading in my Sabre 28′ for a Pearson 34’…though an extra six feet would make all of the difference on our two-week trip up the Maine coast. Always a thought I suppose.
No, I’m talking about one of the greatest lines in movie history, delivered flawlessly by a terrified Roy Scheider. Oh, it’s such an awesome scene! Take a few seconds to refresh your memory. It’s a classic, from a timeless film: “You’re gonna need a bigger boat.”
Timeless, because every year we try to sit down and watch this movie as a family, and every year we get about twenty minutes in before pulling the plug on the idea. It has become a family tradition during Shark Week...to almost watch Jaws. We usually pass on St. Patty’s Day, forget Cinco De Mayo, lazily throw out plastic eggs at the last-minute for Easter, and this year as you know, we bagged on the Fourth of July fireworks. But we never miss Shark Week!
I can’t remember how old I was when I first saw Jaws, but I can confidently say that it scared the shit out of me. The movie did, but the whole fear of sharks on open water never took root…until much later in life. I grew up in northwest Indiana, and saw the beach maybe four times a year. Lake Michigan. No sharks in fresh water, so I never really connected with this fear. My wife grew up in Buffalo, and probably had the same experience. Terrifying movie, but who cares really? Right?
I started to develop a fear of the open water during my brief stint in SEAL training, at the BUD/S compound in Coronado. More specifically, during open ocean training. I remember paddling exhausted, well past the surf line, and seeing a four-foot long shark break the surface right next to our rubber boat. It panicked four sturdy SEAL students, including myself, in broad daylight. I remember saying to myself something along the lines of “Son of a bitch! We swim out here too!” From that point forward, I wasn’t very keen on the idea of swimming off the Coronado beaches as a BUD/S trainee, I didn’t even like splashing around inside of the surf line. Remember what you learned watching Jaws! Most attacks occur in under two feet of water, less than ten feet from the shoreline. I think I’ve heard this fact reinforced on The Today Show, so it must be true.
I sat down yesterday, with a little spare time on my hands to finish this blog post. Nobody was home, so I put Jaws back on. I didn’t get much writing done. I love that movie. The characters are fantastic, the music is unforgettable…the whole concept is sheer genius. I never really payed too much attention to the setting until yesterday, and now I know why my wife gave me “the look” Sunday night, as we started watching. The opening scene is scary enough, but it wasn’t until a little later that we both had that gut reaction to turn the movie off. I finally know why.
The setting looked way too close to the places we visit in our sail boat! Holy crap they look the same.
Quaint islands and seaside towns. Calm, uncrowded beaches…the beach at Amity Island looked like any of the beaches we visit within 5 minutes of our house. We decided that if we ever want the kids to jump off the side of our sailboat into strange waters, this was not the best movie to show them. To confirm out decision, nobody put up a fight…and these kids can fight if they don’t agree.
I took theses pictures at various stops. You might recognize them. My daughter is in the water at Diamond Cove, a popular island stop not too far from our marina. These are the memories I’d like the kids to have. Fun in the water. Let me worry about the sharks…and I worry, you should see how fast I get out after diving headfirst into the water to cool off. Irrational, but I’ve seen Jaws too many times.
In case anyone is interested, our next family movie is Poltergeist…another classic! I’m actually not kidding. Maybe they won’t want to watch TV after seeing it…can’t be a bad thing, right? “There here.” I can’t wait…and I’ll never go in the basement again. Damn these movies!
These blogs are all about fun and sharing. Thank you for reading a ‘#100blogfest’ blog. Please follow this link to find the next blog in the series: http://martinkingauthor.com/blog/7094550076
There is a Twitter tradition called #samplesunday, and this will be my first time participating.
To celebrate, I will release Chapter One of Black Flagged. If you are paying attention to the Word Count box on the top right corner of my blog, you’ve noticed that I am making considerable progress with this novel. I should have a rough draft finished by the middle or end of September, and if all goes well, I’d love to launch it before Thanksgiving.
What is Black Flagged about? This is my biggest challenge as a writer. Quickly explaining what my book is about. I still don’t do any justice to The Jakarta Pandemic in casual conversation. I guess I need to start developing a blurb. Better to start now. Here it goes…very rough.
Black Flagged centers around Daniel Petrovich, a former covert military operative with a past he buried long ago. An explosive past he’s gone to extreme lengths to keep hidden from everyone around him. Daniel is about to find out that some secrets have a way of clawing back out of the ground, and he’ll be forced to resurrect a part of him better left for dead. Thrust into the middle of an international conspiracy, Daniel fights to stay ahead of the FBI and CIA, in a desperate struggle to survive the day, and reunite with the woman he loves.
Very rough indeed.
The first two samples, Prologue and Chapter One, should give you a solid sense of where the novel is headed. In the Prologue, we meet Daniel Petrovich in another life, as another person. He’s not someone you’d want to meet under any circumstances. In Chapter One, we get a brief glimpse of the new Daniel Petrovich, right before his normal life unravels.
and I’m still bummed out about it almost a week later.
This is the time of the year when I feel the most nostalgic about my military past, and find myself digging up old photos and memorabilia from those days. Leaving the Navy was bittersweet for me, but it was the right decision. For every one thing I miss, there are probably five that I don’t. I do know that the biggest thing I would have missed, if I had stayed on for several more years, was my family. I had found that I resented time away from home, more and more as our family grew, and this is how I knew it was time to part ways. I had given 12 years, if you count my 4 in Annapolis, and would have gone anywhere Uncle Sam had seen fit to send me. I was extremely fortunate to have hit one of the peaceful cycles in our nation’s history, 93′ to 01′, which would be shattered just three short months after I left.
Back to the fireworks. Unfortunately, the 4th fell on a Monday, and my wife and I were facing a full week of work and summer camp…so, as the afternoon progressed, we both started grumbling about getting home after ten o’clock, fighting traffic, getting bitten by mosquitoes, packing lunches for camp. The list of grievances continued until we decided to bag the fireworks. The kids weren’t happy, but we eased their pain with the promise of sparklers and ice cream. We were both exhausted from the long weekend, and went to bed pretty early, so we could hear the fireworks through our bedroom windows…and this is when I truly realized what I loved about the fireworks. THE NOISE!
“The rockets red glare…the bombs bursting in air” is spectacular, and gets most of the ooohs and aaaahs, but I enjoy the deep resonating booms and sharp crackles more. I count the time it takes the sound to reach us, from each flash, applying an old field trick to determine distance to a target. What? You say. Well, I spent the last four years of my Navy career working with Marines, first as a forward observer and then as an instructor for the Navy/Marine Corps school that taught new forward observers. I have always loved explosions and the sound of gunfire, but these four years turned it into a love affair. As a forward observer and forward air controller, I got to “radio in” just about every munition in the Navy or Marine Corps arsenal. A few years later, as an instructor down in Coronado, California, I was assigned to a rare job, filled by only three naval officers and one Navy Chief.
We ran the Navy’s only ship to shore bombardment range, which was located about 50 miles off the Orange County coast, on a nasty little chunk of rock called San Clemente Island. It’s sister island is a day trip oasis known as Catalina Island. Somehow, stuff thrived on the other island…or at least someone tried to make it happen. San Clemente was a washed out rock, beautiful in its own way, but sparse and mostly abandoned. On the south-west tip of the island, sits the Navy’s Shore Bombardment Area, and a few horrifyingly old structures used to house the “range safety officers.” ME.
We’d sit in a bunker, and “radio” fire missions to ships off shore, or we’d oversee Marines doing the same thing. Either way, if someone was firing at that range, we were required to be there. This is where I fell in love with the sound of high explosives. The 5 inch shells fired by our modern navy pale in comparison to the 8 inch and larger guns of the older fleet, but it was still impressive. I’d make a radio call, engage in a scripted back and forth conversation with the ship, and less than a minute later, 5 inch shells would crash into the beach area below…way below. It sounded exactly like the Fourth of July. When ships were looking to dump ammo, we’d call in lots of shells. The more the better, and we’d try to move the impacts closer and closer to the “bunker.” We were told it could withstand a direct hit from a 16 inch shell. The concrete was easily three feet thick, but I had my doubts about that…but these were only 5 inch shells. Still, I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near one of the “smaller explosions.” I have a piece of shrapnel from one of these, and it could easily remove your head.
So, as I lie in bed last Monday, I was bummed that I wasn’t closer to the sounds. My thoughts drifted to my days out at San Clemente Island. There was no other experience like it at the time. Today, there are a lot of veterans and active duty military personnel that would be happy to never hear a sound like that again, and I can only imagine how many of them watched fireworks displays with a little anxiety, AND A TON OF PRIDE.
My hat goes off to all of them, and especially the ones who have heard the REAL THING…and probably not from a bunker like the one I got to sit in ten years ago.
I’m going to commemorate these veterans by releasing an uncut scene from a book that I published last fall. I had read several accounts of 2nd Marine Expeditionary Brigade’s attack through An-Nasiriyah, particularly the fierce fighting around the bridge over the Saddam Canal. The day saw fierce fighting all throughout the city, but I was drawn to Charlie Company, 1st Battalion, 2nd Marines’ story. They heroically held the bridge, in the confused absence of reinforcements, for most of the day, suffering 18 killed. Worse, they were repeatedly attacked by U.S. A-10 attack jets, who mistook their vehicles for an incoming enemy armor offensive. I chose to use their incredible story as background for the main character of my novel. The scene is historical fiction, based on the fight to hold the Saddam Canal Bridge, and I hope I did some justice to these Marines and Sailors. They truly deserve it. You can find the scene here: UNCUT BATTLE SCENE from The Jakarta Pandemic
Then don’t slam me with an ill constructed review on Amazon. Post it to your blog. If you get as many blog visits per day as I do…I’m pretty sure that your review will live forever in obscurity.
However, if you have something nice to say, I’d like to help you get the word out to the masses. I found this unsolicited review of my book while conducting one of my daily vanity searches on Google.
What a nice thing to find. Someone who took the time to write an extensive, meaningful, well constructed review of my novel. I actually felt guilty about some of the short reviews I have written recently. Here is someone that invested a considerable amount of positive, mental energy on my book…beyond just reading it.
I ask you to take the time to read Nick’s review. I couldn’t have written a more poignant review of the book myself. He really captured the essence of my intention for the story, and for his efforts, I think his blog deserves some attention. Many thanks, Nick.
One last note: I added a word count for my next novel to top right corner of my blog. I’ll post two dates, with word count, so you can send me a message if it appears that I have slacked off. A little personal accountability, with oversight. I started the week with 24,244 words.
On April 28th, I alluded to some changes by unveiling The Jakarta Pandemic’s new cover. One month later, The Jakarta Pandemic is officially DONE!!! I know, the book was “done” in late October, then again in November…I think I substantially changed it every month since it was first launched.
I really mean it this time. I’m through tweaking this book, and so is my editor. I can’t thank Felicia (editor) enough for convincing to make some necessary changes to the format and content. I am extremely pleased by the final product…enough to leave it alone, which is big for me.
What major changes can you expect to see in the latest revision?
First, the book is about 25 pages lighter than before, thanks to some aggressive editing of “long” news segments and a few scenes that really didn’t propel the storyline. STREAMLINING. Almost all of these cuts came from the first third of the book, which is good news for readers…the nasty pandemic induced mayhem comes quicker. I love story setup, so it was tough to part with some of this content, but I firmly believe the words were not sacrificed in vain. A moment of silence please.
Second, I changed the tense from present to past. Actually, my editor did this…she’s still probably suffering from verb tense PTSD. Prior to giving the “go ahead” on this change, I sampled a few chapters of converted manuscript (compliments of said editor) and was surprised by how much I liked the past tense version of the story. 95 plus percent of stories are told in the past tense, and though I might have argued you to death three months ago about my decision to write the story in present tense…I was sold when I read Felicia’s converted version. Plus, I wasn’t the one that would have to change every verb in the 400 page story. Amazing how my attitude changed. Seriously though, it is a major improvement.
I also included a preview of my next novel, BLACK FLAGGED. No, it’s not a NASCAR novel…I haven’t gone completely mad. Black-flagged is a term used in the espionage world to describe an agent or operative that is to be interrogated and summarily shot if captured. In the preview, you’ll be introduced to the main character of the book, during a time in his life when he might have prayed for Black-flag treatment if captured. If you thought The Jakarta Pandemic was a dark, gritty read, you will thoroughly enjoy my next novel…whenever I finish it.
If you’ve already read The Jakarta Pandemic, don’t get upset…you can check out the preview here: PREVIEW
Pass the word. Now is the time to download or order your copy…before I jack up the price (I’ll blame it on gas prices, or the cost of produce at Whole Foods).
Artist Jeroen ten Berge created an incredible cover design for The Jakarta Pandemic. Check out his write-up of my novel…along with more of his influential design work.
I turned 40 at the end of February, and the event was anti-climactic. I didn’t feel the decay of old bones, or slight degradation in my eyesight. One more candle, and a wonderful family birthday party. I was spared the surprise, “this is your life” event that I’ve seen unfold for other quadragenarians.
My book turned 30 last week, which kicked off an exciting flurry of review activity. I had high hopes for the 30th review…looking for a reason to celebrate. The title of the review? “Wow…this book.” And not in a good way. A one-star 30th birthday review for The Jakarta Pandemic. The review was quite lengthy for Amazon, and had nothing good to say. The only positive? I could tell that the reviewer hadn’t read the entire book, probably not more than 30 pages. Needless to say, I was a little irritated. I wrote a nice response and let it go. Not everyone is going to like this book…or any book. Little did I realize that this would be the first of nine reviews written in four days. Thick skin? I would have felt better suited up in Kevlar.
Every time I checked Amazon, I cringed. I took two more solid hits, and then nothing but good reviews. I have been solidly impressed by the quality of people reviewing my book, and the readers that have reached out via e-mail. I frequently invite reviewers to contact me, especially if I see something that worries me (misunderstanding of meaning or purpose of my writing…not for pointing out typos). The reviews help shape future works, and revisions of the Jakarta Pandemic. I’m self-published, so I can do whatever I want with the book. I have a free-lance editor (who reviewed my book and responded to my request for help) working on some improvements as I type. These are all reader suggested enhancements, which will be available in new editions by mid-May (I hope).
Before I check Amazon for more reviews…Fridays always seem to be the biggest day for The Jakarta Pandemic…let me share with you an example of how not to handle a negative review. Read the string of posts, if you can. It’s cringe-worthy. Warning: Profanity.
As all of you hopefully know, I encourage readers to contact me with questions or suggestions regarding my book, and I actually hear from some of them. Most of them are surprised to hear back from me, which I can’t believe. Hearing from readers is one of the most rewarding aspects of writing a book. It’s proof that someone actually read it, and didn’t just need to spend the remaining three dollars on their Amazon gift card. I suppose some of you will remind me of this post, when I hit the big time author circuit, and get swamped with fan mail. Back to reality Steve.
So the other day, I started a conversation with a reader from my home state of Indiana. After exchanging a few emails, he said he would do a review of my book on his You Tube channel. What? I thought people just posted videos that featured laughing babies on You Tube. I didn’t realize that some people actually used it for constructive purposes. I was wrong. Below is the link to my first “live” review. The only thing that upsets me about this, is that I didn’t think of this first. Thanks, Hooser9mm for opening my eyes to a whole new marketing angle…and for a helluva nice review. Also, he offers a few additional videos that highlight some easy to implement, basic disaster survival strategies (for the family), which tie in nicely to the preparation strategies employed by the Fletcher family in The Jakarta Pandemic.
My wife is reading a very thick, fiction novel set in 19th century London, and she occasionally draws my attention to passages from the book. Yes, she interrupts whatever I’m reading to do this, and since I love both historical fiction and my wife, I’m usually game to take a look.
I’m always amazed by the richness of detail in these novels, which can at times almost appear obsessive. From the era appropriate napkin folds at table settings, to intimate descriptions of every article of clothing that adorns a character…and not just the main character, but everyone in the scene. This is one of the main draws to period or historical fiction. The details of another time. It’s an amazing feat, which must involve painstaking research, travel and imagination. As a part time writer, I’m thankful for Google and an active, roaming imagination.
The other night, she pointed out another feature of this tome she’s lugged around for a few weeks. The dialogue. I couldn’t believe it, but the author had taken pains to mimic the speech of the 19th century London too. I can barely understand some of the thicker British accents even today! I must admit that I couldn’t stand it. I was forced to work too hard to understand the dialogue, and I can only imagine that my wife feels like she’s learned a second language at this point…though I don’t hear her complaining.
I take dialogue seriously, and if I can’t follow it, or it’s unrealistic, I’m likely to tune out of the book. In fiction all dialogue is contrived, so I use a simple strategy to test it. I read and re-read lines of dialogue out loud (I don’t do this for every line…I seem to know when the test is necessary). It’s amazing how crappy a genius line can sound when you put a voice, and some inflection to it. I’ve eliminated some stinkers this way…and probably missed a few. I still find them.
Do you pay close attention to dialogue in a story, or are you more tied to the action?
1.) My book has been professionally edited, so the typos and grammar errors that most of you have been so kind not to mention, should be mostly eradicated. When I get unsolicited emails from readers, complimenting the story, then volunteering to edit my next book…I know it’s time to put this in the hands of a professional. Still, I took a few readers up on the offer to sweep The Jakarta Pandemic, and they turned up enough errors (I’m embarrassed to say how many), that my editor didn’t consider re-negotiating terms in the middle of the project. Thank you guys and ladies for taking the time. You know who you are. And thank you, Noah Mullett-Gillman, for taking on the editing project. You should check out his book, Luminous and Ominous, another recently released Post Apocalyptic tale.
2.) Noah also recently hosted Post Apocapalooza II, a series of interviews with new/indie Post Apocalyptic writers…and I was included in this group. The term apocalyptic fiction wasn’t in my vernacular until a few months ago, and I’m not kidding. I’ve read plenty of PA fiction…The Stand, The Road, World War Z…and I love apocalyptic movies, but I classified my book as a thriller/horror novel. Noah contacted me regarding this interview series, and I did a double take…it was really so obvious, I almost laughed. I wrote a book about a pandemic that will likely wipe out over 700 million people, which certainly places you well within the PA genre. Thanks again, Noah. Check out the Post Apocapalooza II. Several writers are featured, and their books range from pandemics to zombies, to biblical prophesies…back to more zombies. You can read an excerpt of my interview below…regarding zombies.
NOAH K. MULLETTE-GILLMAN: “If a world-wide zombie outbreak occurred, what would you do?”
STEVE KONKOLY: “I’m not worried about this one, because I think at this point we should be well prepared for a zombie outbreak. Hundreds of films, dozens of books…even an instruction manual for surviving a zombie attack (thanks to Max Brooks). Human awareness of zombies is at an all-time historic high, so I can’t envision a scenario where an outbreak could spiral out of control. Unless it was an infection like in 28 Days, and then I would barricade myself and re-read Max’s book, over and over again.
Did you ever notice how people fall victim to zombies (slow moving type) at the beginning of most zombie movies…like they have no idea what they are confronting. We watched The Walking Dead this fall on AMC, and I turned to my wife at one point and said, “I guess this whole genre is predicated on the concept that nobody has ever heard of a zombie before.”
3. I added a prologue to The Jakarta Pandemic, to give the readers a glimpse into the future of the disaster that unfolds in suburban Maine, when the Jakarta Flu is in full swing. The story takes a little time to gather steam, as the groundwork for the epic disaster is carefully put into place, so I thought that the addition of a prologue would give readers some reassurance that they are in for a thrill ride through panic-stricken suburbia.
Good plot. Immersing detail. Popular genre. Quick tempo. All the trappings of a worthy read…right? While these qualities in a book might draw you in, and keep you there for a spell, nothing, in my humble view, detaches the reader quicker than hollow characters. I’ve read the reviews (not on mine thankfully…yet). “Cardboard, one-dimensional, flat, undeveloped, unrealistic…” The list goes on.
Unrealistic? Now this description captures my attention the most, because it reminds me of something Stephen King said about writing good stories. I am paraphrasing at my worst, but he said something to the effect that an interesting story pits normal people against extraordinary circumstances, not extraordinary people against normal situations. Realism defined? I don’t know, but I like reading stories about characters that have to struggle to overcome an extraordinary problem. Is James Bond one of these characters? At first you’d probably say “no way!” I might agree, but I’d argue that he is an extraordinary person pitted against insanely extraordinary circumstances. It’s the same formula, just presented in a higher octane fashion, which is why it works…more so in the recent Bond films.
Ever read a book where the protagonist is an unstoppable, unbeatable hero? Mentally or physically? It’s fun for a while, but falls flat very quickly, because ultimately, there is no real drama. You know the protagonist will come out on top. It might be fun getting there, but on some level I get bored…really quickly. If the protagonist’s success is in question, or he/she takes a beating along the way…even though I still suspect, or know it’ll turn out alright, I’m pulled along.
Another aspect of a realistic protagonist is their moral stance. I think a little moral complexity is critical for a realistic character. We don’t all help old ladies cross the street…sometimes we’re in a hurry and don’t want to stand two more places back at Starbucks. Sorry. Moral complexity can vary across the spectrum, which can become confusing, so traditionally, we think of categorization in terms of good vs. evil, or some form of this. It’s a simple recipe for conflict, which usually drives a story along.
In my first novel, The Jakarta Pandemic, the moral ambiguity was a little hazy. The structural “good guys vs. bad guys” dichotomy was fairly simple to process, and I’ve received little feedback to suggest otherwise. However, since the book’s release, I still eagerly wait to hear from the camp of people who think that Alex Fletcher was a terrible person, and could not associate with them at all. I built a subtle stage for this into the story (maybe not so subtle), and so far, nobody has walked up onto it for a solid rant against them.
My next story won’t be so easy for most of you. Although most of you will like the protagonist from the start, and turn the last page with the same sentiment intact (mostly)…the ride may leave you with an uneasy feeling. You might find yourself not so eagerly clinking champagne glasses with this character, as you sail away into the sunset.
What kind of protagonist keeps you reading a story? What kind makes you toss the book aside?
Does the current situation in Japan qualify as an “epic” disaster?
I don’t know, but the unfolding drama at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant will cast the final vote. All eyes are focused on the crisis, but what exactly are most of us seeing…and learning?
As a writer that recently launched a novel centered around an “epic” human disaster…The Jakarta Pandemic, I saw frightening similarities between the research driven scenario I had created for my story, and the media stories spilling out of Japan. I admit, there is a big difference between the instantly devastating impact of an earthquake/tsunami hit, and the slower burn of a gradually worsening pandemic disaster. However, I wasn’t thinking in terms of the immediate blunt physical impact. I really focused on the after-effects. Stories of evacuation, refugees, food and supply shortages…and not just for the immediate victims, but everyone ultimately affected, even as far away as Tokyo.
I especially considered the citizens forced to evacuate the 12 mile radius around the Fukushima plant. What did they bring with them? How much did they have to bring? What about the people in the next distance ring, who were told to stay indoors? Do they have enough food, water and supplies to stay put for an extended period of time? Or would they be forced to flee due to lack of necessities. Where are all of these people going?
I wondered if the individual families had ever planned for this type of disaster? I know you can’t devise a plan to thwart a thirty foot high wall of water, but did people immediately head away from the coast after the earthquake? They certainly didn’t have much time to react.
I thought about the concept of what survivalist/preppers call a Bug Out Bag (BOB)…actually, they have an entire lingo (Bug Out Vehicle, Bug Out Location…etc). A BOB is a conveniently located, pre-packed bag designed to get you (and your family) through the first 72 hours of an emergency that requires you to leave your home. I won’t get into detail about the contents, but you get the idea. If the tidal wave alarm sounds, or you experience an earthquake (and you live close to the ocean)…you can throw this bag into your BOV, start driving inland, and rest assured that you have the basics covered (cash, clothes, first-aid, food, water…more).
There are some basic preparation steps that can make an immense difference, whether you are stuck in your residence with no way to resupply essential items, or are forced to flee (immediately or with plenty of time) a disaster zone. Many of these preparations overlap, and can serve you well during something as minor as a nasty winter storm.
How much thought have you put into some of the more likely or unlikely disaster scenarios for your area? (Even a two day power outage)
About a month ago, I received some great feedback regarding my book. My neighbor and I were discussing the book, and he thought that a map of the novel’s fictional neighborhood would have helped him to visualize the action in story. A friend of his shared the same sentiment, going even further to say that he quit trying to keep it straight after a while. There are thirty-eight households on Durham Road, not all of them an intrinsic part of the story, but most of them are referenced repeatedly. If you read carefully, you should be able to figure it all out…just kidding.
I sympathize with anyone who had trouble geographically tracking the story throughout the Durham Road neighborhood. As a stickler for details, I couldn’t hope to keep it all clear in my own head while writing the story, so I created a cheat sheet from the very start. Actually, it was a poster-board, very much like the one created by Alex Fletcher in the story. Take a look at both versions. One is obviously my marked up, faded “cheat sheet.” The other is a page I added to the beginning of The Jakarta Pandemic, at the request of some concerned readers.
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The Black Flagged books have undergone the most dramatic changes over the years. When I first published Black Flagged, I hadn’t decided if the characters and plot would continue in a series. Frankly, I had no idea if the books would sell! With that in mind, Jeroen ten Berge created a standalone cover, which remains my favorite to this day. There’s something about this cover that draws me back, over and over again.
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